Zir0b Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question...assuming the 12z GFS track is close to reality, what are the chances of mandatory evacuations for the coastal zones of S.I//Brooklyn/Queens? My grandparents are in Zone B, which is "Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane" Wondering whether I should call and let them know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this is starting to get serious..so many runs putting NYC under water..omg.. hoboken really needs to prepare the boats..cause that area only with a normal rain event it's already converted into a river I lived in Hoboken for 5 years and after a bunch of rain they close the drainage systems and it backs up onto the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question...assuming the 12z GFS track is close to reality, what are the chances of mandatory evacuations for the coastal zones of S.I//Brooklyn/Queens? My grandparents are in Zone B, which is "Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane" Wondering whether I should call and let them know. do you have a link to these zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The trajectory it takes would do serious damage up and down the Jersey coast, thru NYC and then LI. Indeed it would. Worst possible scenario for storm surge. And it makes sense, too. The ridging will push this thing due north, and the trough will "absorb" the storm slightly, so it'll even go NNW. But at a certain latitude, which will most likely be just south of Long Island (and it'll be just south of western Long Island or Queens at this point), the trough won't be phasing anymore, since it's not strong enough to completely phase the storm in, and the ridge will have slightly less influence, so the storm would then make a NE turn and make landfall somewhere between eastern Nassau and Central Suffolk (in this scenario!). But since it comes so close to Long Island and Queens before making this turn, the storm surge would be tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question...assuming the 12z GFS track is close to reality, what are the chances of mandatory evacuations for the coastal zones of S.I//Brooklyn/Queens? My grandparents are in Zone B, which is "Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane" Wondering whether I should call and let them know. The Mayor is going to decide either tonight or tomorrow if an evacuation needs to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question...assuming the 12z GFS track is close to reality, what are the chances of mandatory evacuations for the coastal zones of S.I//Brooklyn/Queens? My grandparents are in Zone B, which is "Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 or higher) hurricane" Wondering whether I should call and let them know. Mandatory evacuation in urban areas (especially in NYC) is so complicated and nearly impossible, I highly doubt they would unless the situation was dire. I could definitely see a voluntary evacuation for coastal portions of New Jersey, Long Island, and flood zones in Manhattan/Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Given the trajectory of the path, the size of the storm, the duration, the tide and the moon cycle, it probably wouldn't be a bad idea to evacuate up to a cat 3 flood zone, and possably even a cat 4 if this makes it up here at the NHC forecasted strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can we have a link to the zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It may only be a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it gets up here, but it will still be a very large storm and the surge potential could be at least a Category higher like with Katrina or Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Landfall south of Sandy Hook: Hour 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_evaczones.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can we have a link to the zones? http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_evaczones.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 81, Landfall in mid LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those wind maps are so funky. No way there would be stronger winds in Montauk than just east of the center in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 81, Landfall in mid LI: Over my house,you coming al!?haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It may only be a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it gets up here, but it will still be a very large storm and the surge potential could be at least a Category higher like with Katrina or Ike. you can never go wrong by preparing for a catagory higher than whats predicted. and I can tell you as a first responder, if you think your in danger, leave before the worst of the weather hits, the NYPD, FDNY are going to be absolutly inundated with rescue calls ect. and the last thing they need is one more call on there list. Be smart about it before its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As expected This could be an unprecedented historical flood for the Raritan River Basin...looking at the NJ storm surge maps...the Raritan would overflow it's banks from a Cat 1/2 hurricane...this does NOT include the 10"+ of rain that would occur on top of the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Ukie is similiar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Ukie is similiar to the GFS. NOGAPS is a bit west (thats a rare statement) It had landfall near the NC/SC border, somewhat west of its 00z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think today's Euro will be key, let's see if it agrees with the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 All the supermarkets around here are packed. Everything is flying off the shelves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That run will be big for the area, and the significant flooding would be very tough to swallow for already-drenched areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 All the supermarkets around here are packed. Everything is flying off the shelves. Anyone else having problems accessing trhe board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone else having problems accessing trhe board once today and once yesterday......its fine now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone else having problems accessing trhe board Yeah...it was down for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone else having problems accessing trhe board Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Board just came back for me but now it's running extremely slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wasn't able to access the board for a while, so I don't know if it was already mentioned- Gov. Christie has declared a state of emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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