ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 54, it turns north and makes landfall in NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 63, looks like its back over water and heading NNE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just insane amount of rainfall here and for a long period of time, probably over 12 hours for most, from the PRE to the actual hurricane. Could be some totals over 12" if bands sustain themselves over one area for long enough, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Just offshore Cape May heading north, this is going to be a bad run for nyc with SE winds piling up a ton of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Jeesus the GFS is locked in. Pretty much just like 6z. The center of the storm will be right over Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can we get this garbage deleted? We're on here because we're interested in extreme/anomalous weather, period. A hurricane hitting NYC is just that. And it's not like what people "root for" matters anyway. Who cares? It's not like it affects the outcome...either the hurricane comes or not. So just stop spewing this BS, we've heard the same arguments a million times. disagree, we have people actively disappointed if the track favors less intensity...to me thats just irritating, use common sense judgment, no one should be rooting for a hurricane. If you want to do it, do it privately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 78. Disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow. Riding the coast and headed right for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't exactly understand what happens between hours 60 and 66, but it seems to weaken significantly. Maybe because it's faster moving in this run, it deteriorates faster? Looks to be a strong category 1 at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Seems like we get the worst of the rain on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Southern CT and Long Island, specifically Western, are going to have a pretty good chance to see rotating storms and weak water spouts and/or tornados from this thing. Up into SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Goodbye Fire Island beachhouse... You will be missed... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 definitely has to be picking up on some interaction with the stalled out front and have a sense of a PRE.. it really explodes the QPF over our area.. The zoomed northeastern view on storm vista has the center over central long island, essentially.. the storm is so big.. so trying to determine exactly where the center is will be difficult, especially using these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 10 inches of rain for the area. This is getting serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't exactly understand what happens between hours 60 and 66, but it seems to weaken significantly. Maybe because it's faster moving in this run, it deteriorates faster? Looks to be a strong category 1 at hour 72. Its extremely close to the coast or even onshore early in that range, thereafter it still is never more than 50 miles offshore. I'm still saying if this exact track occurred the storm would not be a hurricane by the time it reached NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't exactly understand what happens between hours 60 and 66, but it seems to weaken significantly. Maybe because it's faster moving in this run, it deteriorates faster? Looks to be a strong category 1 at hour 72. I wouldn't put too much into the GFS intensity forecast, the minimum pressure is usually way off even at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 925 mb winds looks to be in the 70-75 knot range.. roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't exactly understand what happens between hours 60 and 66, but it seems to weaken significantly. Maybe because it's faster moving in this run, it deteriorates faster? Looks to be a strong category 1 at hour 72. You were supposed to never post again, weren't you? Also, forward speed would help maintain its strength, not weaken it, so stop spewing your nonsensical analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, the models seem to really be starting to pick up the fact that the storm is going to make a turn well east of due north as it approaches Long Island's latitude. I think this makes a lot of sense. This would be baaaaaaaaad for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 definitely has to be picking up on some interaction with the stalled out front and have a sense of a PRE.. it really explodes the QPF over our area.. The zoomed northeastern view on storm vista has the center over central long island, essentially.. the storm is so big.. so trying to determine exactly where the center is will be difficult, especially using these models It is, and it makes a difference. I suspect there are a lot of folks in Queens and the Bronx who don't think there's much risk, or aren't aware at all... But if the track sets up a Long Island Sound funnel effect they could be in for a real surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Its extremely close to the coast or even onshore early in that range, thereafter it still is never more than 50 miles offshore. I'm still saying if this exact track occurred the storm would not be a hurricane by the time it reached NYC. agreed weak cat 1 or strong TS look more likely, however the surge can be bigger than what you would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Its extremely close to the coast or even onshore early in that range, thereafter it still is never more than 50 miles offshore. I'm still saying if this exact track occurred the storm would not be a hurricane by the time it reached NYC. Agree--but hurricane force winds still likely on the shore...waves will be tremendous..flooding will be worse. I'll be at manasquan inlet if anybody else wants to come video and chase this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 QPF JP Zone is NYC and far eastern NJ, essentially historic flooding would occur, and due to the lower resolution, again it could be under doing the QPF maximums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Agree--but hurricane force winds still likely on the shore...waves will be tremendous..flooding will be worse. I'll be at manasquan inlet if anybody else wants to come video and chase this thing. Just the momentum and piling of water into NY Harbor will be ridiculous. I wonder how high the surge can get in this kind of setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nobody is paying attention to the post I made about the strong jet stream helping to enhance the outflow and prevent the system from weakening, this is coming from mets on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, the models seem to really be starting to pick up the fact that the storm is going to make a turn well east of due north as it approaches Long Island's latitude. I think this makes a lot of sense. This would be baaaaaaaaad for Long Island. The trajectory it takes would do serious damage up and down the Jersey coast, thru NYC and then LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Jim Cantore is heading to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 definitely has to be picking up on some interaction with the stalled out front and have a sense of a PRE.. it really explodes the QPF over our area.. The zoomed northeastern view on storm vista has the center over central long island, essentially.. the storm is so big.. so trying to determine exactly where the center is will be difficult, especially using these models 06z GFS puts out 7.96 of QPF inland at KSWF http://www.meteor.ia...=gfsm&site=kswf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this is starting to get serious..so many runs putting NYC under water..omg.. hoboken really needs to prepare the boats..cause that area only with a normal rain event it's already converted into a river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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