tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 well.. the 12Z GFS is starting to initialize on storm vista.. gotta go out and grab some lunch before my next meeting.. not the day I had in mind to be stuck in meetings all day, but oh well.. a lot of my other ones, I don't have to talk too much.. catch you guys in a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Umm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The best part is the number of people in the thread went up about 50 in 2 minutes so there must have been alot of PM'ing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The best part is the number of people in the thread went up about 50 in 2 minutes so there must have been alot of PM'ing going on. I emailed my entire family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Dear mods.... Could somebody ban that guy. jesus christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 wtf did i just wake up too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Pics still up on page 51 and now he did it again in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could somebody ban that guy. jesus christ What a dumb ass, nothing like getting yourself banned when the world is about to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That was on page 51 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 it would probably be one of the most amazing weather feats in NYC history if we can get a tropical system near the tri-state area classified with sustained winds that high.. it's almost difficult to comprehend. The scary thing would be if it starts really ramping up tonight again as it heads over the Gulf Stream. Upper air still looks favorable, and waters plenty warm. Hopefully dry air doesn't start choking it off once it gets past NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The scary thing would be if it starts really ramping up tonight again as it heads over the Gulf Stream. Upper air still looks favorable, and waters plenty warm. Hopefully dry air doesn't start choking it off once it gets past NC. That would be something good, doesn't anyone realize that the current NHC track would pretty much mean a catastrophic disaster for the U.S, we have a very large (nearly IKE type large), Cat 2 or 3 storm hugging the coastline from N.C. to LI and either making landfall near the Delmarva, NJ, the city or central LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far out 18 hours, Irene is noticeably further east and weaker than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 WOWZA 000 WTNT44 KNHC 251455 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER... SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Did they slow it down here? Noon Sunday and only at Delaware? Has this been the timing all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far out 18 hours, Irene is noticeably further east and weaker than the 00z. save it, we don't need a play by play this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I heard that Bloomberg is going to wait till tomorrow to decide if people need to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 save it, we don't need a play by play this far out Sorry, I thought it was a significant enough development that would provoke discussion, which it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That would be something good, doesn't anyone realize that the current NHC track would pretty much mean a catastrophic disaster for the U.S, we have a very large (nearly IKE type large), Cat 2 or 3 storm hugging the coastline from N.C. to LI and either making landfall near the Delmarva, NJ, the city or central LI. Thanks for saying this. Excitement over snowstorms- OK. Excitement over dangerous hurricanes- Stupid. Ever know anybody who had a house fire? Lost a house to a flood? It sucks. Its terrible to watch them put it all back together again. And that's when insurance pays for it. How many people in Long Island or NJ or Del have hurricane insurance? Root for snow. Cheer when hurricanes miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sorry, I thought it was a significant enough development that would provoke discussion, which it is. except its the speed thats changing, its maybe a tick east, which goes along with what the NAM showed fairly well. It looks like its speeding up the SW again over Canada, still its better to let the run play out I've learned rather than trying to make bold predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So far out 18 hours, Irene is noticeably further east and weaker than the 00z. It does look a tick further east, however, the shortwave near NewFoundland is in essentially the same location, so the W ATL ridge will still be able to flex plenty of muscle. I expect a tick east this run, but not a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thanks for saying this. Excitement over snowstorms- OK. Excitement over dangerous hurricanes- Stupid. Ever know anybody who had a house fire? Lost a house to a flood? It sucks. Its terrible to watch them put it all back together again. And that's when insurance pays for it. How many people in Long Island or NJ or Del have hurricane insurance? Root for snow. Cheer when hurricanes miss. Can we get this garbage deleted? We're on here because we're interested in extreme/anomalous weather, period. A hurricane hitting NYC is just that. And it's not like what people "root for" matters anyway. Who cares? It's not like it affects the outcome...either the hurricane comes or not. So just stop spewing this BS, we've heard the same arguments a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 except its the speed thats changing, its maybe a tick east, which goes along with what the NAM showed fairly well. I didn't take a look at the NAM. What are its verification scores for hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I didn't take a look at the NAM. What are its verification scores for hurricanes? I'm not sure, probably not good, but its right in there with the rest of the guidance as far as track goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 700mb pattern truly shows how massive this thing really is. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=WNATL&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Western+North+Atlantic+-+Southeast+US+Central+America+Caribbean&prevArea=WNATL&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW, it is coming in east through hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Can we get this garbage deleted? We're on here because we're interested in extreme/anomalous weather, period. A hurricane hitting NYC is just that. And it's not like what people "root for" matters anyway. Who cares? It's not like it affects the outcome...either the hurricane comes or not. So just stop spewing this BS, we've heard the same arguments a million times. Seriously. It's going to be hugely disruptive to me whether it's a strong TS, hurricane or what not. I live on a barrier island and that's the price we pay here. I've never been inside a hurricane before, so it may as well be a decent one. I'll be picking up the pieces afterwards regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 sorta gotta let it play out until it comes up to our area, because that is the time frame that the ridge is coming into play and expanding north and west. The storm could conceivably move west of due north.. perhaps. One thing for certain with this solution so far.. doesn't bode well for the outer banks of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At hr 48, the GFS really isn't east of its prior run, maybe a degree or two, which would be good for us since its probably only going to brush the outer banks this run before heading north. The main correction is the speed, about 6 hours faster. From the main thread #563 PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted 31 minutes ago <LI class=avatar> <LI class=title>Snow Cub Shalondra <LI class="mini_friend_toggle is_not_friend" id=friend_913563_372> Posts: 1,859 Joined: November 12, 2010 LocationNew Albany, IN jm1220, on 25 August 2011 - 11:23 AM, said: If the jet is more alongside the hurricane and not over it, it aids outflow out of the top. Hurricanes only strengthen when they can suck more air in, make that air rise and lower surface pressure. All that air has to evacuate out the top. I believe Charley is a good example of this... if I remember correctly, many products showed shear increasing over Charley as it approached Florida a day or two prior, when in actuality, it was just the jet helping to improve the outflow of the storm. Formerly DoctorHurricane2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW, it is coming in east through hour 48. Looks like from here on in it'll mostly be wobbling back and forth between an Eastern LI hit and just inland through NJ. It's getting to that time where we zoom in on a more defined solution. And models have been keying in for days on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW, it is coming in east through hour 48. Well it's certainly faster than the 00z, and slightly further east. It is however much further west than its prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hr 54, it is not east. The eye is over the Banks, landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.