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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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it would probably be one of the most amazing weather feats in NYC history if we can get a tropical system near the tri-state area classified with sustained winds that high.. it's almost difficult to comprehend.

The scary thing would be if it starts really ramping up tonight again as it heads over the Gulf Stream. Upper air still looks favorable, and waters plenty warm. Hopefully dry air doesn't start choking it off once it gets past NC.

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The scary thing would be if it starts really ramping up tonight again as it heads over the Gulf Stream. Upper air still looks favorable, and waters plenty warm. Hopefully dry air doesn't start choking it off once it gets past NC.

That would be something good, doesn't anyone realize that the current NHC track would pretty much mean a catastrophic disaster for the U.S, we have a very large (nearly IKE type large), Cat 2 or 3 storm hugging the coastline from N.C. to LI and either making landfall near the Delmarva, NJ, the city or central LI.

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WOWZA :lmao:

000

WTNT44 KNHC 251455

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE

THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND

IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE

NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A

SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT

WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY

SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE

THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A

NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES

THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN

IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH

IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP

SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP

THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF

THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES

EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE

SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO

PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...

SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT

WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Did they slow it down here? Noon Sunday and only at Delaware? Has this been the timing all along?

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That would be something good, doesn't anyone realize that the current NHC track would pretty much mean a catastrophic disaster for the U.S, we have a very large (nearly IKE type large), Cat 2 or 3 storm hugging the coastline from N.C. to LI and either making landfall near the Delmarva, NJ, the city or central LI.

Thanks for saying this. Excitement over snowstorms- OK. Excitement over dangerous hurricanes- Stupid. Ever know anybody who had a house fire? Lost a house to a flood? It sucks. Its terrible to watch them put it all back together again. And that's when insurance pays for it. How many people in Long Island or NJ or Del have hurricane insurance? Root for snow. Cheer when hurricanes miss.

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Sorry, I thought it was a significant enough development that would provoke discussion, which it is.

except its the speed thats changing, its maybe a tick east, which goes along with what the NAM showed fairly well.

It looks like its speeding up the SW again over Canada, still its better to let the run play out I've learned rather than trying to make bold predictions.

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So far out 18 hours, Irene is noticeably further east and weaker than the 00z.

It does look a tick further east, however, the shortwave near NewFoundland is in essentially the same location, so the W ATL ridge will still be able to flex plenty of muscle. I expect a tick east this run, but not a huge shift.

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Thanks for saying this. Excitement over snowstorms- OK. Excitement over dangerous hurricanes- Stupid. Ever know anybody who had a house fire? Lost a house to a flood? It sucks. Its terrible to watch them put it all back together again. And that's when insurance pays for it. How many people in Long Island or NJ or Del have hurricane insurance? Root for snow. Cheer when hurricanes miss.

Can we get this garbage deleted?

We're on here because we're interested in extreme/anomalous weather, period. A hurricane hitting NYC is just that. And it's not like what people "root for" matters anyway. Who cares? It's not like it affects the outcome...either the hurricane comes or not. So just stop spewing this BS, we've heard the same arguments a million times.

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Can we get this garbage deleted?

We're on here because we're interested in extreme/anomalous weather, period. A hurricane hitting NYC is just that. And it's not like what people "root for" matters anyway. Who cares? It's not like it affects the outcome...either the hurricane comes or not. So just stop spewing this BS, we've heard the same arguments a million times.

:lol: Seriously.

It's going to be hugely disruptive to me whether it's a strong TS, hurricane or what not. I live on a barrier island and that's the price we pay here. I've never been inside a hurricane before, so it may as well be a decent one. I'll be picking up the pieces afterwards regardless.

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sorta gotta let it play out until it comes up to our area, because that is the time frame that the ridge is coming into play and expanding north and west. The storm could conceivably move west of due north.. perhaps.

One thing for certain with this solution so far.. doesn't bode well for the outer banks of NC

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At hr 48, the GFS really isn't east of its prior run, maybe a degree or two, which would be good for us since its probably only going to brush the outer banks this run before heading north. The main correction is the speed, about 6 hours faster.

From the main thread

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snapback.pngjm1220, on 25 August 2011 - 11:23 AM, said:

If the jet is more alongside the hurricane and not over it, it aids outflow out of the top. Hurricanes only strengthen when they can suck more air in, make that air rise and lower surface pressure. All that air has to evacuate out the top.

I believe Charley is a good example of this... if I remember correctly, many products showed shear increasing over Charley as it approached Florida a day or two prior, when in actuality, it was just the jet helping to improve the outflow of the storm.

Formerly DoctorHurricane2004

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