bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This NAM run looks like landfall near Moriches Inlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Like snowgoose alluded to , if you want the full effects of the storm you want the NAM/Gfs track to verify. Let irene stay over water most of the time if it's going to slam the NYC area. A euro solution would weaken the storm greatly although still have somewhat of an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Like snowgoose alluded to , if you want the full effects of the storm you want the NAM/Gfs track to verify. Let irene stay over water most of the time if it's going to slam the NYC area. A euro solution would weaken the storm greatly although still have somewhat of an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 11AM advisory LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 zoomed in from ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 968 into eastern LI, its definitly a good 30 miles to the east, and we end up with a bit less rain, but still a ton. The heart of the storm is over us for a good 12 hrs plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 check out the lead storm the NAM send into the area on Sunday. Looks like there is some interaction with the old frontal boundary to get that storm to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 check out the lead storm the NAM send into the area on Sunday. Looks like there is some interaction with the old frontal boundary to get that storm to fire. Yeah,that looks like a PRE set up as we are near the jet RRQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As Mt. Holly has mentioned before, there is a strong signal for a PRE, if this happens, you can almost double QPF amounts in certain places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Question about windfield descriptions... if the NHC says hurricane force winds extend 70 miles... does that mean they extend 35 miles in any direction of the center? or 70 miles in any direction? Which would, in essence, cover 140 total miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 78 12z NAM sustained wind forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 WOWZA 000 WTNT44 KNHC 251455 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER... SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Question about windfield descriptions... if the NHC says hurricane force winds extend 70 miles... does that mean they extend 35 miles in any direction of the center? or 70 miles in any direction? Which would, in essence, cover 140 total miles. It means the most they extend outward at any point is 70 miles. This usually is somewhere on the eastern side. Its possible on the western side they only extend out 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I know accuweather sucks, but this is what they posted. Day SSE at 59 mph Gusts: 108 mph Hurricane conditions; watch for flash flooding in the morning, damaging winds in the afternoon Max UV Index: 1 (low) Thunderstorm Probability: 40% Amount of Precipitation: 4.09 in Amount of Rain: 4.09 in Amount of Snow: 0.0 in Amount of Ice: 0.00 in Hours of Precipitation: 10 hrs Hours of Rain: 10 hrs Rain Lo 68° RealFeel® 61° Night SW at 35 mph Gusts: 75 mph Some wind and rain possible from Hurricane Irene; overcast; winds will be locally damaging Max UV Index: N/A Thunderstorm Probability: 40% Amount of Precipitation: 0.17 in Amount of Rain: 0.17 in Amount of Snow: 0.0 in Amount of Ice: 0.00 in Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs Hours of Rain: 1 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hour 78 12z NAM sustained wind forecast: You can see the NAM also showing a blast of damaging winds mixing down right behind the storm as stronger winds mix down from aloft in rapid pressure rises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You can see the NAM also showing a blast of damaging winds mixing down right behind the storm as stronger winds mix down from aloft in rapid pressure rises. This occurred in 1938 and Gloria along coastal NJ I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sheesh, the NHC has the storm at 100mph at 78 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sheesh, the NHC has the storm at 100mph at 78 hours? 11AM forecast path: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sheesh, the NHC has the storm at 100mph at 78 hours? What kind of implications does this have on long island with this current track of the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yes our winds behind the storm during Gloria were as strong as during the height even though it was sunny This occurred in 1938 and Gloria along coastal NJ I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This occurred in 1938 and Gloria along coastal NJ I believe. Yeah,I got them here during Belle and Gloria.Even with Floyd ,I got strong gusts mixing down right after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Does anybody know what kind of winds the variouis suspension bridges in this area are built to handle, I'm sure they could probably take a gust over 100MPH, but if you have landfall at 100MPH, you probably have gusts maybe exceeding 120MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sheesh, the NHC has the storm at 100mph at 78 hours? it would probably be one of the most amazing weather feats in NYC history if we can get a tropical system near the tri-state area classified with sustained winds that high.. it's almost difficult to comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sheesh, the NHC has the storm at 100mph at 78 hours? yes, they are not joking, if nothing changes by the 00z models, its time to push the "red button" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My father's friend in Midland Beach, Staten Island might have to evacuate. The Mayor might tell people to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 this could be a defining moment for mayor bloomberg, much like 9/11 was for Guliani.. The logistical complexities of this situation would be none since probably the events of 9/11. I don't even know how you begin here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If they are smart, they will start asking people to evacuate the barrier islands of NJ later today, otherwise your going to get a mad rush of people all at once on Saturday when its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 not sure what the poster above does in his/her spare time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow................ Dear mods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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