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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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Like snowgoose alluded to , if you want the full effects of the storm you want the NAM/Gfs track to verify. Let irene stay over water most of the time if it's going to slam the NYC area. A euro solution would weaken the storm greatly although still have somewhat of an impact.

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Like snowgoose alluded to , if you want the full effects of the storm you want the NAM/Gfs track to verify. Let irene stay over water most of the time if it's going to slam the NYC area. A euro solution would weaken the storm greatly although still have somewhat of an impact.

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11AM advisory

LOCATION...25.9N 76.8W

ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF NASSAU

ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

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WOWZA :lmao:

000

WTNT44 KNHC 251455

TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE

THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND

IS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE

NOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A

SECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT

WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY

SUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE

THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A

NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES

THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN

IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH

IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP

SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP

THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF

THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES

EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE

SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO

PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...

SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT

WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 25.9N 76.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

24H 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

72H 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

120H 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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Question about windfield descriptions... if the NHC says hurricane force winds extend 70 miles... does that mean they extend 35 miles in any direction of the center? or 70 miles in any direction? Which would, in essence, cover 140 total miles.

It means the most they extend outward at any point is 70 miles. This usually is somewhere on the eastern side. Its possible on the western side they only extend out 30 miles.

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I know accuweather sucks, but this is what they posted.

Day

sm_SSE.png

  • SSE at 59 mph
  • Gusts: 108 mph

Hurricane conditions; watch for flash flooding in the morning, damaging winds in the afternoon

  • Max UV Index: 1 (low)
  • Thunderstorm Probability: 40%
  • Amount of Precipitation: 4.09 in
  • Amount of Rain: 4.09 in
  • Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
  • Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
  • Hours of Precipitation: 10 hrs
  • Hours of Rain: 10 hrs

Rain Lo 68° RealFeel® 61°

Night

sm_SW.png

  • SW at 35 mph
  • Gusts: 75 mph

Some wind and rain possible from Hurricane Irene; overcast; winds will be locally damaging

  • Max UV Index: N/A
  • Thunderstorm Probability: 40%
  • Amount of Precipitation: 0.17 in
  • Amount of Rain: 0.17 in
  • Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
  • Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
  • Hours of Precipitation: 1 hrs
  • Hours of Rain: 1 hrs

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