Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm not sure how one can say that. When was the last time we had a hurricane track near the delaware river to really know what its effects will be? I realize it will be weakening but I've seen lots of gulf storms cause a lot of wind damage well inland over Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia etc. Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 downplay this event at your own peril...this is not locked in stone by any means, but the city is down 6 runs in the bottom of the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro. So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You guys should not take the euro wind progs verbatim at all. There can be gusts way higher than what's shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 You guys should not take the euro wind progs verbatim at all. There can be gusts way higher than what's shown. The euro wind prog that I posted is for sustained winds. Gusts are probably 60-70mph at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track? At this time the tristate area is going to have to prepare for a historic and damaging storm. This storm I don't think isn't going to deviate through its final track and projections. At the very least were gonna get what? A high level tropical storm/low level hurricane? It still going to be a massive and disruptive also deadly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Updated 5 day QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone have any comments on the storms current strength.. On satelite, it appears as the storm isteyingtofind itself.. The latest hpc guidence was rather ominous.. "large sections of society may be severely affected by this storm." Awaiting the 12z guidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 You guys should not take the euro wind progs verbatim at all. There can be gusts way higher than what's shown. Yeah, agreed on that too. Ultimately what I meant by my post is that the forecast guidance is converging on a pretty extreme solution near the area. There could be bumps east, bumps west, etc...but it seems at this point that we will be affected, regardless. Will it be significant? Who knows..but it's a possibility. So it would probably be smart for everyone to prepare adequately. Know your storm surge areas, evacuation routes and plans, etc. This way if the significant event does happen, you can act quickly. There are a tremendous amount of hurricane prone areas in this region. Long beach island being a major one..the south shore of LI...much of the jersey shore..and of course Brooklyn and the Boros. So to prepare ahead is the smart move at this point, not to dwell on the fact that this likely won't be "catastrophic". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Ok if that verifies some places would be in excess of 2 feet of rain for the month Updated 5 day QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It looks extremely likely that many of us will record our wettest month on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What a beautiful sim radar the 12z NAM is printing at hour 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM at hour 63 appears to only scrape the outer banks. Looks like its headed for an easterly, LI track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM at hour 63 appears to only scrape the outer banks. Looks like its headed for an easterly, LI track: Careful my friend of greek descent, it may swing towards the upper level disturbance to its left and still go inland over southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah, agreed on that too. Ultimately what I meant by my post is that the forecast guidance is converging on a pretty extreme solution near the area. There could be bumps east, bumps west, etc...but it seems at this point that we will be affected, regardless. Will it be significant? Who knows..but it's a possibility. So it would probably be smart for everyone to prepare adequately. Know your storm surge areas, evacuation routes and plans, etc. This way if the significant event does happen, you can act quickly. There are a tremendous amount of hurricane prone areas in this region. Long beach island being a major one..the south shore of LI...much of the jersey shore..and of course Brooklyn and the Boros. So to prepare ahead is the smart move at this point, not to dwell on the fact that this likely won't be "catastrophic". Yeah but even inland, I never take what models show for surface winds because they love to underestimate them..esp gusts. Everything else is on point. If it's not wind, it will be epic rains. Good luck NJ and poss NYC on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Notice the rain well out ahead of whatever gets here from Irene, this is going to be a tremendous rain maker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Riding the coast at 69: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track? No, I was just saying that the 0z ECM track probably wouldn't require a full evacuation; damage would be limited by lighter rains on the east side of the cyclone and weakening as Irene tracks over land. It doesn't mean that people shouldn't prepare for a windstorm/rainstorm, but a weakening tropical storm well to the west is hardly grounds for calling an emergency. Updated 5 day QPF map That's pretty aggressive, more rain than the GFS even. Impressive, although sometimes HPC QPF can broadbrush precipitation, resulting in higher totals than reality for people who are outside the jackpot. Personally, though, I wouldn't be surprised if there are areas of convective precipitation associated with Irene that could create localized bullseyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM is what I would call an extremely damaging storm. Jeez: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM barely makes any land interaction with NC. It comes up to NYC undisturbed. Thats what the worst case scenario looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Nam says what west trend, that is a destructive storm for nyc and south facing beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So fairly close to the GFS right? maybe a hair east? I'd say if the Euro comes back to this solution we are in trouble. NAM barely makes any land interaction with NC. It comes up to NYC undisturbed. Thats what the worst case scenario looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This NAM run is a good 6 hours faster, thats about the only change, maybe a tick east, and a bit less expansive with the QPF shield, but small differences. Hr 81, we're all getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So fairly close to the GFS right? maybe a hair east? I'd say if the Euro comes back to this solution we are in trouble. If the euro does come back to that solution nyc, nassau and suffolk should prepare for a "possibly catastrophic" situation then. This storm should be peaking everybody's interest too. I work at a supermarket and there is no panic yet I'm shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 81hr NAM, YIKES, if the model is right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 12Z NAM is nearly the worst case situation. It interacts a bit with NC and could still be a bit close to the NJ coast but thats about as bad as it probably could get with this setup...shift it 50 miles east and its the worst situation possible in any storm....given its the NAM beyond 48 hours I won't believe it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 FWIW in tropical situations, NAM, SREFS and even the ETA and RSM are all pretty much stacked upon one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like a central LI landfall on NAM. But first it tucks into the coast and then heads ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks like a central LI landfall on NAM. But first it tucks into the coast and then heads ENE. Yeah it seems like it comes in over Suffolk county but the angle of approach prior to that is very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 wow..so many solutions hitting on something extreme.. i still can't believe this coming up the coast .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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