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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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I'm not sure how one can say that. When was the last time we had a hurricane track near the delaware river to really know what its effects will be? I realize it will be weakening but I've seen lots of gulf storms cause a lot of wind damage well inland over Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia etc.

Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro.

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Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro.

So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track?

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So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track?

At this time the tristate area is going to have to prepare for a historic and damaging storm. This storm I don't think isn't going to deviate through its final track and projections. At the very least were gonna get what? A high level tropical storm/low level hurricane? It still going to be a massive and disruptive also deadly as well.

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You guys should not take the euro wind progs verbatim at all. There can be gusts way higher than what's shown.

Yeah, agreed on that too. Ultimately what I meant by my post is that the forecast guidance is converging on a pretty extreme solution near the area. There could be bumps east, bumps west, etc...but it seems at this point that we will be affected, regardless. Will it be significant? Who knows..but it's a possibility.

So it would probably be smart for everyone to prepare adequately. Know your storm surge areas, evacuation routes and plans, etc. This way if the significant event does happen, you can act quickly.

There are a tremendous amount of hurricane prone areas in this region. Long beach island being a major one..the south shore of LI...much of the jersey shore..and of course Brooklyn and the Boros. So to prepare ahead is the smart move at this point, not to dwell on the fact that this likely won't be "catastrophic".

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Yeah, agreed on that too. Ultimately what I meant by my post is that the forecast guidance is converging on a pretty extreme solution near the area. There could be bumps east, bumps west, etc...but it seems at this point that we will be affected, regardless. Will it be significant? Who knows..but it's a possibility.

So it would probably be smart for everyone to prepare adequately. Know your storm surge areas, evacuation routes and plans, etc. This way if the significant event does happen, you can act quickly.

There are a tremendous amount of hurricane prone areas in this region. Long beach island being a major one..the south shore of LI...much of the jersey shore..and of course Brooklyn and the Boros. So to prepare ahead is the smart move at this point, not to dwell on the fact that this likely won't be "catastrophic".

Yeah but even inland, I never take what models show for surface winds because they love to underestimate them..esp gusts. Everything else is on point. If it's not wind, it will be epic rains. Good luck NJ and poss NYC on that.

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So, essentially what your response was to my "prepare now, not later" idea..was that it has to be catastrophic to be noteworthy, and the euro shows a non-catastrophic track?

No, I was just saying that the 0z ECM track probably wouldn't require a full evacuation; damage would be limited by lighter rains on the east side of the cyclone and weakening as Irene tracks over land. It doesn't mean that people shouldn't prepare for a windstorm/rainstorm, but a weakening tropical storm well to the west is hardly grounds for calling an emergency.

Updated 5 day QPF map

That's pretty aggressive, more rain than the GFS even. Impressive, although sometimes HPC QPF can broadbrush precipitation, resulting in higher totals than reality for people who are outside the jackpot. Personally, though, I wouldn't be surprised if there are areas of convective precipitation associated with Irene that could create localized bullseyes.

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So fairly close to the GFS right? maybe a hair east? I'd say if the Euro comes back to this solution we are in trouble.

If the euro does come back to that solution nyc, nassau and suffolk should prepare for a "possibly catastrophic" situation then. This storm should be peaking everybody's interest too. I work at a supermarket and there is no panic yet I'm shocked

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The 12Z NAM is nearly the worst case situation. It interacts a bit with NC and could still be a bit close to the NJ coast but thats about as bad as it probably could get with this setup...shift it 50 miles east and its the worst situation possible in any storm....given its the NAM beyond 48 hours I won't believe it yet.

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