IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There are still a good number of 6z GFS ensemble members east of the op http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zp72f126.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 LOL, good luck. By the time you get out this thing will be headed for cleveland Yeah, the congrats Cincinnati threads will be starting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think this is a lesson learned for all of us who said this thing was going out to sea 2 days ago. This isn't like tracking a winter storm and despite the odds toward one of two paths we are realistically looking at anywhere from west of the Delaware River to 100 miles off the coast and its less than 72 hours out. I really have no idea what to think at this point, I'm trust some of the mets out there insisting this hits the NC coast and makes landfall somewhere near or just east of NYC. There are still a good number of 6z GFS ensemble members east of the op http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f126.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There are still a good number of 6z GFS ensemble members east of the op http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f126.html I think it fades east somewhat at the last minute like many hurricanes. I personally think it's more likely that it hits near Morehead City and goes NNE than it going due N from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There would be nothing left. If it makes landfall in Delaware and heads slowly nortth, it will be a shredded nothing, by the time it rides 200 miles up this way. Plus the rain would be on the westerns side as well. shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No way its still that strong if it's over land at that point. shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage? Typically those models forecast hurricanes to be way to strong. 933 after making landfall in NC, and then encountering slightly cooler waters and possibly interacting with NJ will have huge impacts on strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage? Yeah I don't understand that post.....its not like its riding upp the apps from sc. Coming on sure in delaware would still be bad news. Euro still being west had some pretty strong winds at costal sections. Check the phl thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage? The pressure is waaaaaaay too low. There is no way it will be that strong at that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Found this tidbit interesting from mt.hollys AFD. I know it's our office, but it concerns the easy coast. Thu talk about a 250mb jet enhancing this storm as it nears: HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH EROSION. INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Typically those models forecast hurricanes to be way to strong. 933 after making landfall in NC, and then encountering slightly cooler waters and possibly interacting with NJ will have huge impacts on strength. Of course it would weaken ..lol..what he said was a shredded nothing..doubt that would be the senario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 We are almost getting to the point now where we need to prepare for impacts. Regardless of whether it bumps east or west, we are still in the line of fire. I posted this on the NYMetroWx blog, but instead of time to panic, it's time to prepare. Know your storm surge areas, know your evacuation routes, etc. This way if the storm does get here, you can act quickly, regardless of whether we get wind, rain, both, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Even if it took a 1938 track it would probably not be 933mb upon reaching LI. 950-970mb assuming its a hurricane is most likely with 950 being the very low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Guys... experience tells us whats going to happen to the core of the storm this far north, even if it remains over water for most of its journey. Yes, this is a very odd setup, but nobody is willing to seriously consider this as a sub 950 near our area, at least not yet. I hope this is a lesson for the climo huggers. Climo doesn't mean jack, sure, it should be considered, but basing a forecast off it alone is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Of course it would weaken ..lol..what he said was a shredded nothing..doubt that would be the senario Agreed. I was in atlanta for college and there were some hurricanes that made it up as far north as atlanta with tropical storm force winds...we had pouring rain, tornados, trees down...and atlanta sits 300+ miles from the coast and has elevation over 1000 feet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 New SREFS mean from 9z looks like the 6Z GFS from this morning but it looks like more than a few members leaning to the left of the City. I have no clue how the SREFS do with tropical prediction and this is 87 hours so its probably low probability for these models no matter what but here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Cool shot of the center to the east of Atlantic City at 84 hours. Again, Srefs at 84 hours, but its neat to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Cool shot of the center to the east of Atlantic City at 84 hours. Again, Srefs at 84 hours, but its neat to see this. Sad but true, this one might finally put some of the casinos there out of their misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sad but true, this one might finally put some of the casinos there out of their misery. Hahha! Anyone here anything on coastal evacs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At its worse, the 0z euro at hour 102, has tropical force sustained winds into NYC and 45-50mph winds for south shore areas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At its worse, the 0z euro at hour 102, has tropical force sustained winds into NYC and 45-50mph winds for south shore areas: Yes it does but sustained 50 mph winds will have some gusts in the 60's and that can cause tree damage and power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 6z NAM, already almost 7" of rain at KMMU with the center still SE of ACY at 966mb, and the heart of the banding just beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 6z NAM, already almost 7" of rain at KMMU with the center still SE of ACY at 966mb, and the heart of the banding just beginning. Could you imagine that depiction on a winter storm moving NE'ward? This server would crash instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We are almost getting to the point now where we need to prepare for impacts. Regardless of whether it bumps east or west, we are still in the line of fire. I posted this on the NYMetroWx blog, but instead of time to panic, it's time to prepare. Know your storm surge areas, know your evacuation routes, etc. This way if the storm does get here, you can act quickly, regardless of whether we get wind, rain, both, etc. Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At its worse, the 0z euro at hour 102, has tropical force sustained winds into NYC and 45-50mph winds for south shore areas: Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could you imagine that depiction on a winter storm moving NE'ward? This server would crash instantly. That would probably be rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could you imagine that depiction on a winter storm moving NE'ward? This server would crash instantly. when you consider how many monster snow storms we have gotten the past few years, an E-F2 tornado in the city, 3.0" diamater hail on the LIE an earthquake and now a potentially landfalling cat 2 or stronger hurricane, I wouldn't rule anything out. Time to build the arc, the world is ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground. Yes, but nothing crazy. A 6z GFS or NAM track is where we are talking about major implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Coastal water temperatures Sandy Hook, NJ 73.9 °F The Battery, NY 73.0 °F Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 73.0 °F Kings Point, NY 72.0 °F Atlantic City, NJ 73.9 °F Baltimore, MD 79.0 °F Tolchester Beach, MD 78.1 °F Washington, DC 79.0 °F Sewells Point, VA 78.1 °F Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA 75.0 °F Kiptopeke, VA 78.1 °F Ocean City Inlet, MD 73.0 °F Wachapreague, VA 78.1 °F Lewes, DE 74.1 °F Cape May, NJ 75.9 °F Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 73.0 °F Bishops Head, MD 75.9 °F Cambridge, MD 80.1 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground. Yes, I would still think we can gust to 60mph even with the far west Euro sollution and we would see possibly major coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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