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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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I think this is a lesson learned for all of us who said this thing was going out to sea 2 days ago. This isn't like tracking a winter storm and despite the odds toward one of two paths we are realistically looking at anywhere from west of the Delaware River to 100 miles off the coast and its less than 72 hours out. I really have no idea what to think at this point, I'm trust some of the mets out there insisting this hits the NC coast and makes landfall somewhere near or just east of NYC.

There are still a good number of 6z GFS ensemble members east of the op

http://raleighwx.ame...06zp72f126.html

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There would be nothing left. If it makes landfall in Delaware and heads slowly nortth, it will be a shredded nothing, by the time it rides 200 miles up this way.

Plus the rain would be on the westerns side as well.

shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage?

06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2084.gif

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shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage?

06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2084.gif

Typically those models forecast hurricanes to be way to strong. 933 after making landfall in NC, and then encountering slightly cooler waters and possibly interacting with NJ will have huge impacts on strength.

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shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage?

06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2084.gif

Yeah I don't understand that post.....its not like its riding upp the apps from sc. Coming on sure in delaware would still be bad news. Euro still being west had some pretty strong winds at costal sections. Check the phl thread

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shredding nothing?..ummm dont think so.History shows hurricanes that come close or to the west of NYC have major effects...I mean you dont think a 933 hurricane in that place would cause damage?

06zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2084.gif

The pressure is waaaaaaay too low. There is no way it will be that strong at that location.

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Found this tidbit interesting from mt.hollys AFD. I know it's our office, but it concerns the easy coast. Thu talk about a 250mb jet enhancing this storm as it nears: HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL

RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/WAVES AND BEACH

EROSION.

INTERESTING TO NOTE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET

NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE

EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MODELS

INDICATE THAT THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS

WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS

SCENARIO COULD HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL

AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. AS STATED

BEFORE, LOTS TO IRON OUT WITH THE DETAILS AS IT DEPENDS ON THE

EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKING UP FORWARD

SPEED AS IT GAINES LATITUDE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER

WESTERLIES. THEREFORE, WE TAPERED THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH A

BIT FASTER AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PW VALUES

FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5

INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE

CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE

PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF

MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES

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Typically those models forecast hurricanes to be way to strong. 933 after making landfall in NC, and then encountering slightly cooler waters and possibly interacting with NJ will have huge impacts on strength.

Of course it would weaken ..lol..what he said was a shredded nothing..doubt that would be the senario

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We are almost getting to the point now where we need to prepare for impacts. Regardless of whether it bumps east or west, we are still in the line of fire.

I posted this on the NYMetroWx blog, but instead of time to panic, it's time to prepare. Know your storm surge areas, know your evacuation routes, etc. This way if the storm does get here, you can act quickly, regardless of whether we get wind, rain, both, etc.

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Guys... experience tells us whats going to happen to the core of the storm this far north, even if it remains over water for most of its journey. Yes, this is a very odd setup, but nobody is willing to seriously consider this as a sub 950 near our area, at least not yet.

I hope this is a lesson for the climo huggers. Climo doesn't mean jack, sure, it should be considered, but basing a forecast off it alone is foolish.

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Of course it would weaken ..lol..what he said was a shredded nothing..doubt that would be the senario

Agreed. I was in atlanta for college and there were some hurricanes that made it up as far north as atlanta with tropical storm force winds...we had pouring rain, tornados, trees down...and atlanta sits 300+ miles from the coast and has elevation over 1000 feet...

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New SREFS mean from 9z looks like the 6Z GFS from this morning but it looks like more than a few members leaning to the left of the City. I have no clue how the SREFS do with tropical prediction and this is 87 hours so its probably low probability for these models no matter what but here you go.

sref_namer_087_mslp.gif

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We are almost getting to the point now where we need to prepare for impacts. Regardless of whether it bumps east or west, we are still in the line of fire.

I posted this on the NYMetroWx blog, but instead of time to panic, it's time to prepare. Know your storm surge areas, know your evacuation routes, etc. This way if the storm does get here, you can act quickly, regardless of whether we get wind, rain, both, etc.

Mt. Zucker will protect me...I'm sure Irene will affect us, but what the 0z ECM shows isn't exactly catastrophic. To have true hurricane effects, we need a track like the 06z GFS where the hurricane just hugs the Jersey Shore and doesn't have full land interaction. The 06z GFS is probably a worst-case scenario with NYC being in the front right quadrant but hardly any significant weakening of the storm compared to the Euro.

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At its worse, the 0z euro at hour 102, has tropical force sustained winds into NYC and 45-50mph winds for south shore areas:

Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground.

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Could you imagine that depiction on a winter storm moving NE'ward? This server would crash instantly.

when you consider how many monster snow storms we have gotten the past few years, an E-F2 tornado in the city, 3.0" diamater hail on the LIE an earthquake and now a potentially landfalling cat 2 or stronger hurricane, I wouldn't rule anything out.

Time to build the arc, the world is ending :thumbsup:

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Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground.

Yes, but nothing crazy. A 6z GFS or NAM track is where we are talking about major implications.

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Coastal water temperatures

Sandy Hook, NJ

73.9 °F

The Battery, NY

73.0 °F

Bergen Point West Reach, NJ

73.0 °F

Kings Point, NY

72.0 °F

Atlantic City, NJ

73.9 °F

Baltimore, MD

79.0 °F

Tolchester Beach, MD

78.1 °F

Washington, DC

79.0 °F

Sewells Point, VA

78.1 °F

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA

75.0 °F

Kiptopeke, VA

78.1 °F

Ocean City Inlet, MD

73.0 °F

Wachapreague, VA

78.1 °F

Lewes, DE

74.1 °F

Cape May, NJ

75.9 °F

Brandywine Shoal Light, DE

73.0 °F

Bishops Head, MD

75.9 °F

Cambridge, MD

80.1 °F

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Still a major flood threat for this area with the long duration southerly fetch into the harbors/bays. I could also see quite a number of trees coming down due to saturated ground.

Yes, I would still think we can gust to 60mph even with the far west Euro sollution and we would see possibly major coastal flooding.

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