nycsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yes, they are pretty far north already. What you think they'll put TS or hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IMO, the Euro is too far to the west (expansive West Atlantic ridging may be a little too strong). The 0z and 6z GFS, 0z UKMET, and, to some extent, 6z NAM (trend) may offer somewhat better insight. One early clue might be whether the 6z GFDL shifts away from the 0z GFDL's Euro-esque track. I am increasingly concerned that Irene could make second landfall (NC Outer Banks should be first) to the west of where Belle (1976) and Floyd (1999) came ashore. Another clue as to Irene's ultimate track could manifest itself in the timing of its turn more to the north. Were Irene to maintain its current northwest bearing through the day, that could be an indication of a farther west track (stronger subtropical ridging). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IMO, the Euro is too far to the west (expansive West Atlantic ridging may be a little too strong). The 0z and 6z GFS, 0z UKMET, and, to some extent, 6z NAM (trend) may offer somewhat better insight. One early clue might be whether the 6z GFDL shifts away from the 0z GFDL's Euro-esque track. I am increasingly concerned that Irene could make second landfall (NC Outer Banks should be first) to the west of where Belle (1976) and Floyd (1999) came ashore. Another clue as to Irene's ultimate track could manifest itself in the timing of its turn more to the north. Were Irene to maintain its current northwest bearing through the day, that could be an indication of a farther west track (stronger subtropical ridging). Don, I expect pictures from you of the wall of water from LI Sound coming into New Rochelle, don't dissapoint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Three quick points: 1. The 6z GFDL adjusted to a track that was somewhat to the east of its 0z forecast track after around 38N-38.5N, with a more pronounced fade to the east. It did bring Irene ashore farther west in NC. 2. It remains to be seen whether the 8 am motion from 5 am (345°) is an indication of a turn more to the north. 3. The 8 am position of 25.5N 76.5W is essentially 35 miles north of the GFDL's estimated 12z position of 25.0N 76.6W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Don, I expect pictures from you of the wall of water from LI Sound coming into New Rochelle, don't dissapoint! I will try to get some pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We'll watch the models over the next few days to refine the timing of the passage of Irene with the tide cycle on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Craig Allen said he just saw an experimental model and it shows Irene now going into the Poconos. I assume he means the GFS experimental.. Anyone have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think we might see the models trend back east tonight and tomorrow, when they get a better handle current trough erosion of the West Atlantic ridge. But it I think it looks unlikely now, that we are going to see a final track that avoids any landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think we might see the models trend back east tonight and tomorrow, when they get a better handle current trough erosion of the West Atlantic ridge. But it I think it looks unlikely now, that we are going final track that avoids any landfall. The GFDL has been around for a long time. It is not experimental. More than likely, he was referring to the experimental hurricane forecast improvement project consensus (referenced in yesterday's 11 am discussion by the NHC) or the experimental GFS (probably the latter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Craig Allen said he just saw an experimental model and it shows Irene now going into the Poconos. I assume he means the GFS experimental.. Anyone have it? yep.. just posted it via FB.. it tracks far west, into Binghamton, NY. You need to select "Irene09L" from the storm drop down list on the left Experimental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 yep.. just posted it via FB.. it tracks far west, into Binghamton, NY. You need to select "Irene09L" from the storm drop down list on the left Experimental so in 24 hours this went from a RI landfall to poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think we might see the models trend back east tonight and tomorrow, when they get a better handle current trough erosion of the West Atlantic ridge. But it I think it looks unlikely now, that we are going final track that avoids any landfall. Climatology and physics argues the 2 most likely tracks are well inland into NC and then cutting up like the Euro shows or possibly more west of that with the 2nd possibility being the one that comes ashore over central or eastern LI. These coastal huggers the GFS wants to show or Queens/Nassau county landfalls while not impossible are highly improbable due to coriolis tendency this far north alone wanting the storm to often have some sort of NE motion....in reality the Suffolk county landfall is way more dire in terms of damage than the Queens landfall, a Queens landfall while we'd likely see a bad tidal flood would probably see a significantly weakened storm due to land interaction up the entire coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 so in 24 hours this went from a RI landfall to poconos? well.. that is just one experimental model.. the majority consensus is still much further east from the NYC to western Long Island region, so I don't put much weight into it... but I guess it can't be ignored either. If that atlantic ridge flexes it's muscle much more, it could concievably force the storm even more north-northwest.. it's possible, but probably not the favored track by any means.. at least, not right now... still though.. the inland track is massively bad for a lot of areas in terms of flooding.. any way you slice it, it's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z early guidance shifted west again. Tight cluster from mid-Jersey to Nassau County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question, which reliable models are still showing a more easterly track hitting eastern LI instead of NYC on west? I know the Euro is pretty far west, the GFS is showing a coastal hugger, landfall near NYC, NAM is also fairly far west as well right? well.. that is just one experimental model.. the majority consensus is still much further east from the NYC to western Long Island region, so I don't put much weight into it... but I guess it can't be ignored either. If that atlantic ridge flexes it's muscle much more, it could concievably force the storm even more north-northwest.. it's possible, but probably not the favored track by any means.. at least, not right now... still though.. the inland track is massively bad for a lot of areas in terms of flooding.. any way you slice it, it's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z early guidance shifted west again. Tight cluster from mid-Jersey to Nassau County: That probably means the 12Z non-hurricane models will come in even further west than that. They have generally been west of these, outside of the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Serious question, which reliable models are still showing a more easterly track hitting eastern LI instead of NYC on west? I know the Euro is pretty far west, the GFS is showing a coastal hugger, landfall near NYC, NAM is also fairly far west as well right? yea.. I hear ya'.. at this point.. basically none I guess.. and after looking at ag3's recent post on early 12Z guidance.. it's all clustered in the immediate NYC metro area now. Yea, the NAM was also pretty far west.. The thing that is a bit scary is that the speed is coming in slower.. it's the break in the subtropical ridge controlling the direction.. that trough in Canada looks like it's gonna do nothing. It's going to be the strength and placement of the atlantic ridge at the time it comes up north at this point. I guess I can understand the tight clustering because synoptically, how many players are really involved any more.. not much, it would seem... the variability on handling the canadian trough seemed to skew the models into different paths, but with that out of the picture, what else is there really steering this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wonder if the models are done trending west. Maybe it can trend far enough west that the area does not see any rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hopefully it doesn't come in even further west... that would mitigate most effects for the area and turn this mostly into an Appalachian soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't know. I could see how the Euro was a start of a more significant west trend that maybe isn't quite done. I can tell you alot of the professional Mets have been pretty adamant about this being a coastal hugger making landfall in NYC/LI and would end up looking pretty bad if they're off by 250 miles I wonder if the models are done trending west. Maybe it can trend far enough west that the area does not see any rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 bloomberg speaking on channel 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 yea.. I hear ya'.. at this point.. basically none I guess.. and after looking at ag3's recent post on early 12Z guidance.. it's all clustered in the immediate NYC metro area now. Yea, the NAM was also pretty far west.. The thing that is a bit scary is that the speed is coming in slower.. it's the break in the subtropical ridge controlling the direction.. that trough in Canada looks like it's gonna do nothing. It's going to be the strength and placement of the atlantic ridge at the time it comes up north at this point. I guess I can understand the tight clustering because synoptically, how many players are really involved any more.. not much, it would seem... the variability on handling the canadian trough seemed to skew the models into different paths, but with that out of the picture, what else is there really steering this thing If the storm goes further inland, would the pressure gradient between Irene and the ringe enhance the wind speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That probably means the 12Z non-hurricane models will come in even further west than that. They have generally been west of these, outside of the GFS ensembles. This is a very wide spread for a hurricane 60 hrs or so out.Gulfcoast hurricanes like Katrina has a bullsye 3 days.I mean there is a 300 mile difference in some of these models.They are handling like it's a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the storm goes further inland, would the pressure gradient between Irene and the ringe enhance the wind speed? No, the ridge of high pressure is massive in size and wouldn't have any relative impact on the gradient. The gradient will truly be determined by the pressure gradient of the hurricane itself... a bit different situation maybe than in the winter where you could have a relatively strong storm, but often times, a strong surface high is present to the north which could add to the relative strength of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I think we're in danger of this being too far west to have a big impact from say Sandy Hook on north, with the exception of strong winds. (who would have thought this 24hrs ago?) If this thing tracks inland too much, the circulation is going to take a beating, and by the time this gets up here, its going to be a rotating pile of crap. The hurricane would likely transfer its steadiest rains to the NW side and we would be left with numerous squall lines for a period of time, but probably nothing crazy on the east side. The track right now is one which will cause the most damage, and give us the most rain, but we're still 72hrs out and we all saw how much of a difference 24 hrs can make. I want to see the west trend end and some consistency in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A track 50 miles further west would put NYC in the NE quadrant...not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A track 50 miles further west would put NYC in the NE quadrant...not good There would be nothing left. If it makes landfall in Delaware and heads slowly north, it will be a shredded nothing, by the time it rides 200 miles up this way. Plus the rain would be on the western side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I don't want hurricane impacts up here, I love it when its a strong winter storm but hurricanes are not fun. People don't realize how devastating a large hurricane like Irene can be up here, this isn't a game, this isn't fun, enjoy having no power for weeks, massive flooding, and massive tree and structural damage, count me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 unfortunately, I've got like 5 meetings today and my first one is in 15 minutes and I have to blabber a presentation for an hour and half on the most boring stuff you can possibly imagine.. it really stinks. I'll catch you guys inbetween breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 LOL, good luck. By the time you get out this thing will be headed for cleveland unfortunately, I've got like 5 meetings today and my first one is in 15 minutes and I have to blabber a presentation for an hour and half on the most boring stuff you can possibly imagine.. it really stinks. I'll catch you guys inbetween breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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