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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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That's if the Euro is correct, I am sure we would also see quite a bit of rain with that track as well but the heaviest amounts may be a bit further west, still substantial impacts in my opinion.

Its not totally impossible the pressure may lag a bit but if the Euro is right we'd see just a very windy day with rain. Even most of those new hurricane model tracks despite the fact they look ominous are going to result in the storm spending too much time near the coast on the way up from NC that it would be remote it would even still be a hurricane and if it was only a very small area would see hurricane force winds. I do thing the storm surge would be severe still, not necessarily from the storm center itself but due to the SSE fetch. The Euro solution if you ask me would be hard pressed to even duplicate the crazy Dec 1992 redux storm a year or two back when JFK gusted to 75 mph.

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Once we see where it comes in, if at all into NC we'll have a good idea. If it comes in SW of Hatteras its likely game over for LI, a storm entering Wilmington and then cutting NNE would likely drop off significantly in intensity and have its core severely disrupted. If it just brushes the outer banks we know we're in trouble at that point since it would not have the land interaction needed to weaken it.

Yeah, I always use Cape Fear / Wilmington as my benchmark-- if it goes east of there then land interaction is kept to a minimum.

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My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E.

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My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E.

Wouldn't the strongest winds be NW quadrant? Wouldn't that mean NYC gets some wicked winds as the eye wall approaches in your scenario?

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Wouldn't the strongest winds be NW quadrant? Wouldn't that mean NYC gets some wicked winds as the eye wall approaches in your scenario?

No. Right Front Quad. NE quad. So, if it passes right over NYC, then LI would get smashed. Of course the track is not set in stone at this pt.

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My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E.

Subsidence or not, you're way over-doing the precip gradient if you believe a 'cane centered over NYC will cause only 1" qpf in western NJ (which even at the PA border is no more than 60 air miles away). Those higher elevations to the west will work wonders in squeezing out tropical moisture off an easterly fetch and there would be some very significant totals in that area. Add also that this is relatively long duration event as far as tropical cyclones go and that 1" precip will be exceeded by the second squall.

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western L.I verifies direct hit on Queens new york lots of trees and heavy wet soil won't help I'm the only person except for one other neighnor that has a sizable generator 7'000 watts that keep most important utilities running at the same time.Irenes been eating alot of cannoli's my god she's has girth alot of losers with her regardless of eyewall passage the western sound should get pounded. Am i gonna pull the boat nah city island in the bronx just might have to evac in a worse case scanario see ya.

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actually, no, read my post.

no no - ur clarification makes sense... the bottom line is that nyc is clearly in trouble... By late today and tomorrow, people are going to have to start taking all precautions to secure life and property... This appears to NOT be a joke.. If this storms comes into queens, LI - nassau county - queens, brooklyn, etc are going to experience something seldom felt around these parts...

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