Hailstorm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z GFS ensemble tracks shows a consensus of the storm center moving over Montauk then into Rhode Island. These are probably the eastern outliers. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That's if the Euro is correct, I am sure we would also see quite a bit of rain with that track as well but the heaviest amounts may be a bit further west, still substantial impacts in my opinion. Its not totally impossible the pressure may lag a bit but if the Euro is right we'd see just a very windy day with rain. Even most of those new hurricane model tracks despite the fact they look ominous are going to result in the storm spending too much time near the coast on the way up from NC that it would be remote it would even still be a hurricane and if it was only a very small area would see hurricane force winds. I do thing the storm surge would be severe still, not necessarily from the storm center itself but due to the SSE fetch. The Euro solution if you ask me would be hard pressed to even duplicate the crazy Dec 1992 redux storm a year or two back when JFK gusted to 75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Once we see where it comes in, if at all into NC we'll have a good idea. If it comes in SW of Hatteras its likely game over for LI, a storm entering Wilmington and then cutting NNE would likely drop off significantly in intensity and have its core severely disrupted. If it just brushes the outer banks we know we're in trouble at that point since it would not have the land interaction needed to weaken it. Yeah, I always use Cape Fear / Wilmington as my benchmark-- if it goes east of there then land interaction is kept to a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E. Wouldn't the strongest winds be NW quadrant? Wouldn't that mean NYC gets some wicked winds as the eye wall approaches in your scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wouldn't the strongest winds be NW quadrant? Wouldn't that mean NYC gets some wicked winds as the eye wall approaches in your scenario? No. Right Front Quad. NE quad. So, if it passes right over NYC, then LI would get smashed. Of course the track is not set in stone at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Im out. Let jconsor asnwer your met question from here on! gdnight! Btw, dont underestimate the chance for svr storms today! We are all looking at the hurricane but the chance of big storms exists in the PM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 No. Right Front Quad. NE quad. So, if it passes right over NYC, then LI would get smashed. Of course the track is not set in stone at this pt. Oh wow so if this trends any further north west NYC may be looking at the stronger winds winding up east of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 My thinking is that it may go right over NYC, in the eye, so LI gets smashed. The W side see a great precip gradient with perhaps W NJ seeing much less rain then the city itself, then higher amts over the city and LI. There will be a great amt of subsidence on the W side of the storm. So you could see like 1 inch of rain over far W NJ and like 6 inches in NYC, more to the E. Subsidence or not, you're way over-doing the precip gradient if you believe a 'cane centered over NYC will cause only 1" qpf in western NJ (which even at the PA border is no more than 60 air miles away). Those higher elevations to the west will work wonders in squeezing out tropical moisture off an easterly fetch and there would be some very significant totals in that area. Add also that this is relatively long duration event as far as tropical cyclones go and that 1" precip will be exceeded by the second squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Not a very useful model for tropicals but the 06Z NAM is definitely west at 60 hours than it was at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The new forecast track has the cyclone slicing across W LI sometime Sun evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 fwiw the 06z nam at 84 hrs is ontop or just east of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 western L.I verifies direct hit on Queens new york lots of trees and heavy wet soil won't help I'm the only person except for one other neighnor that has a sizable generator 7'000 watts that keep most important utilities running at the same time.Irenes been eating alot of cannoli's my god she's has girth alot of losers with her regardless of eyewall passage the western sound should get pounded. Am i gonna pull the boat nah city island in the bronx just might have to evac in a worse case scanario see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 6z GFS has Irene inland thru eastern NC at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 At 75, looks like it's right on water off Maryland, heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another epic gfs run. Atlantic city to NYC with the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Oh my GFS. Rides coastal Jersey and straight for NYC. Crushed this run. Looks like center stays over water until it lands in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NYC would be in line to see the highest risk of all four major landfalling threats this specific run of the gfs, Rain, Wind, Surge and Tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 8"-10"+ of rain on GFS. Worst track it can possibly take. Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS shows Irene intensifying from off AC until it slams right into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS shows Irene intensifying from off AC until it slams right into NYC. thats the eyewall contracting as it approaches the interaction with the coast, makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS shows Irene intensifying from off AC until it slams right into NYC. in that respect the gfs has to be on drugs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 in that respect the gfs has to be on drugs... actually, no, read my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 actually, no, read my post. no no - ur clarification makes sense... the bottom line is that nyc is clearly in trouble... By late today and tomorrow, people are going to have to start taking all precautions to secure life and property... This appears to NOT be a joke.. If this storms comes into queens, LI - nassau county - queens, brooklyn, etc are going to experience something seldom felt around these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 06z gfs may be a tad further west then 00z.....but still the same result.....pretty intense run verbatiam.....(not saying that because of pressure either) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 06z gfs may be a tad further west then 00z.....but still the same result.....pretty intense run verbatiam.....(not saying that because of pressure either) Its as bad as a picture as you could paint for NYC point east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The euro scenario would be nothing for us though. Way too inland and would rapidly weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The euro scenario would be nothing for us though. Way too inland and would rapidly weaken. Agreed. Could see a few rotating thunderstorms but that would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone think we get a TS or hurricane watch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Anyone think we get a TS or hurricane watch today Yes, they are pretty far north already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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