billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can't you tell by the graphics? It's obviously an AccuWeather graphic! I didn't want to be the one to state the obvious. More importantly, is this a current Accu-graphic? It's an extremely low probability impact, one that I would not take that to the masses right now and cause pandemonium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Where did that graphic come from? Its last fact is wrong...a Cat 1 hurricane struck NYC dead on in 1893 and wiped out a mile-long barrier island known as Hog Island that sat just south of the Rockaways. Exactly-- and they got the pressure wrong also (not that we would really know what that was anyway, but certainly not in the 990s.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z gfs is wide right, models are by no means done trending east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes I was alluding to 1821...but that is an extremely low probability scenario that would come to pass only if Irene were to attain/maintain Cat 3/4 intensity and then thread the needle so to speak, by moving rapidly right along the immediate coast from eastern NC to Cape May NJ to NYC. I strongly agree. I think it's a remote probability this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I've noticed in the past that the BAM and other hurricane models are better at showing a recurve than global models. But they have shifted back west at 6z. I'm not sure the overall east trend will continue here. We need to see how much 1st trough erodes in the West Atlantic ridge on Friday. Then how much amplified the 2nd trough is over the great lakes on Saturday. Those features will determine how sharp the recurve will be: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z gfs is wide right, models are by no means done trending east... It's deeper with the 2nd trough over the Lakes than 0z. It's been going back and forth with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 First few visible frames of the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If it were the euro that was wide right, then you can be concerned for a miss. 6z GFS is not something I would consider wide right anyway. Still impacts NYC and gets worse as you head east into LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 ^ The Euro, hypothetically, would actually be the worst hit of all of the models, with the east side of the low pressure coming over New York and Long Island...the likelihood of a storm surge into the major harbors...and the potential for near hurricane force surface winds. Luckily it's 140 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some may be interested in this... I posted my thoughts on my blog this morning. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/23/another-year-another-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ^ The Euro, hypothetically, would actually be the worst hit of all of the models, with the east side of the low pressure coming over New York and Long Island...the likelihood of a storm surge into the major harbors...and the potential for near hurricane force surface winds. Luckily it's 140 hours out. John, the 00z Euro stays over land after initial landfall, aren't the Euro pressures suspect? Correct me if I'm wrong but this still looks like a major near Philly. A slight shift to the east would put the city in the eastern eyewall. I would also think, being as the city and east would be in the right from quadrant, the tornado risk would be elevated. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some may be interested in this... I posted my thoughts on my blog this morning. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/23/another-year-another-threat/ Great read, and fully agreed on the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Great read, and fully agreed on the most likely scenario. Ryan's a good met. Agree with his scenarios here too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If it were the euro that was wide right, then you can be concerned for a miss. 6z GFS is not something I would consider wide right anyway. Still impacts NYC and gets worse as you head east into LI. 6z HWRF and GFDL also had massive shifts right with the outter banks getting hit, the trend is not our friend. Wagons east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z gfs is wide right, models are by no means done trending east... One would think wide right would be a total miss........the 06z gfs has some major impacts from Irene in the metro area, you should prob change the wording. Not saying it not be a option, but i have yet to see a model this morning that is a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro looks very unrealastic and likely wrong. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z HWRF and GFDL also had massive shifts right with the outter banks getting hit, the trend is not our friend. Wagons east if your going to use those models, at least use them correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro looks very unrealastic and likely wrong. I'm hoping your joking What about the other dozen or so model runs that have showed similar solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z HWRF and GFDL also had massive shifts right with the outter banks getting hit, the trend is not our friend. Wagons east Those two were way out of line though. Now there is a consensus that the hit will be somewhere on the North Carolina coast barring any gigantic shifts by all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z HWRF and GFDL also had massive shifts right with the outter banks getting hit, the trend is not our friend. Wagons east Its all going to depend on the how that second trough can interact with the storm......i would not consider one run a trend, the consensous is building for a hit or brush in eastern NC......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW the 06z DGEX looked very similar to the 06z GFS, second landfall in eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 6z HWRF and GFDL also had massive shifts right with the outter banks getting hit, the trend is not our friend. Wagons east Aren't the GDFL and HWRF hurricane intensity models? If thats true then wouldn't the track for those two be suspect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 One would think wide right would be a total miss........the 06z gfs has some major impacts from Irene in the metro area, you should prob change the wording. Not saying it not be a option, but i have yet to see a model this morning that is a fish storm. I expected a Hurricane Earl type miss after just reading Noreaster27's "wide right" comment without looking at the actual model. How is this WIDE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z early cycle dynamic models. Tight cluster in NC, heading NNE into our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I expected a Hurricane Earl type miss after just reading Noreaster27's "wide right" comment without looking at the actual model. How is this WIDE right? looks like Bob in 1991..Suffolk county east was hit hard..hurricane gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I understand the reasoing behind being conservative at this time, but the writing is on the wall so to speak, major landfall somewhere in NC and then NNE from that point forward. Unless the models trend towards a much sharper trough, that ridge in place over the western Atlantic is not going to allow anything to go fishing, at least not to the degree that would result in partly cloudy skies on Monday vs TS conditions, or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 12z early cycle dynamic models. Tight cluster in NC, heading NNE into our area: That looks like a tight cluster with the storm moving NE after hitiing NC, that track would not have a huge impact on the area except maybe in eastern LI. Don't forget models like to trend east as we get closer to the event as they often underestimate the effect of the westerlies. I would be much more comfortable if the models were showing this into PA as this point in time. This agrees with Ryan's early thoughts: I think the most likely scenario may be a HSE scraper then out to sea to the southeast of Nantucket That track also fits climo and would not be a big deal for this area besides some beach errosion and maybe coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That looks like a tight cluster with the storm moving NE after hitiing NC, that track would not have a huge impact on the area except maybe in eastern LI. Don't forget models like to trend east as we get closer to the event as they often underestimate the effect of the westerlies. I would be much more comfortable if the models were showing this into PA as this point in time. This agrees with Ryan's early thoughts: That track also fits climo and would not be a big deal for this area besides some beach errosion and maybe coastal flooding. 6 of those models show a big threat to this area..4 of them show a threat to Long Island east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol Folks, posts like this aren't useful and I'm having to delete a lot of one word or not useful 3 or 4 word posts which have no backing in fact due to a lot of reports. Saying "X model is wrong" doesn't cut it. If you can't back up your opinion don't bother posting it and stop with the "lol" type of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That looks like a tight cluster with the storm moving NE after hitiing NC, that track would not have a huge impact on the area except maybe in eastern LI. Don't forget models like to trend east as we get closer to the event as they often underestimate the effect of the westerlies. I would be much more comfortable if the models were showing this into PA as this point in time. You need to seperate tropical reasoning from winter reasoning. The main thing is, the affects of tropical cyclones can be felt hundreds of miles away from the center. Secondly, as a TC is making a transition towards extra-tropical status, the heaviest rain bands shift to the NW side and the system tends to unravel a bit. The strength that some of the models have shown Irene at up this way (sub 970) are not really all that suspect, especially if high pressure is able to establish itself over SE Canada as some runs have shown. When you have a strong anti-cyclone to the north of a TC, the clockwise flow helps to enhance the outflow and creates a very stable enviornment for strengthening. Being as the TC would be moving over coller SST, one is not going to forecast strengthining, especially after any possible land interaction, but, the anti-cyclone to the north could help to preserve the TC longer than would normally be the case. Most of the time, TC's only make it this far north because they are picked up by a weakness in the ridge caused by a sharp trough over the NE, this is not the case, (at least right now). This would not be a favorable environment for a TC as it would induce shear on the cyclone and that would help to weaken the system faster, along with the cooler SST's..Often times, a TC is able to get here because of rapid acceleration to the NE before transition to extra-tropical status. Other times, they become embedded in the westerlies and go fishing. (Earl 2010) Again, this doesn't look to the case this time around. Instead, you have a favorable upper air environment and a possible track close to the gulf stream, so a strong Hurricane up this way, is not all that far fetched, its just not likely. The main reason, we don't normally have a favorable upper air enviornment in place, due to the nature of how TC's are typically able to gain sufficant lattitude to threaten our region. This system is very unusual and I wouldn't be to quick to jump on any one model solution. I feel we wake up Sunday morning to Hurricane Warnings, but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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