LocoAko Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If this verifies would all of NYC be evacuated? I mean, how can that happen anyways? Can you really evacuate the largest city in America? This is getting nuts. No way. Just the immediate coastal areas. Wouldn't even be close to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Doubt it. I think 1 mile from south shore is all that would need to if it came to it So we just then ride out the wind and immense amount of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pman10 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So we just then ride out the wind and immense amount of rain? +1, the wind is what concerns me. All those tall buildings, and all that glass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Long Island Storm Surge Maps - http://www2.sunysuff...surge_maps.html just to note, that map is very innacurate with respect to the placement of towns. It has inwood and cedarhurst switched...which i noticed because my fiance's mom lives in cedarhurst whcih according to the map would flood during a cat 1...but in reality, inwood floods and cedarhurst doesnt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IR imagery not looking too great. I am not exactly sure what irene is doing. Probably a lengthy ERC winds down to 115 mph. Still a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Long Island Storm Surge Maps - http://www2.sunysuff...surge_maps.html Whew, I'm in the "green zone" (Cat 4) but it says NW direction? I wonder what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IR imagery not looking too great. I am not exactly sure what irene is doing. Probably a lengthy ERC winds down to 115 mph. Still a cat 3 This is starting to look like an Ike post-Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 just to note, that map is very innacurate with respect to the placement of towns. It has inwood and cedarhurst switched...which i noticed because my fiance's mom lives in cedarhurst whcih according to the map would flood during a cat 1...but in reality, inwood floods and cedarhurst doesnt... I wish they'd label the roads instead. I spent the better part of half an hour comparing the bodies of water (the various inlets) to a real map to figure out which zone I was in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If this verifies would all of NYC be evacuated? I mean, how can that happen anyways? Can you really evacuate the largest city in America? This is getting nuts. This would be an extreme overreaction. Of course the whole city wouldn't be evacuated-- just some low-lying shore-front areas. And, not to downplay it-- I hope it's big-- but I wouldn't call it "nuts". We're talking about a fast-moving Cat-1 hurricane. It would be hugely disruptive, but we're not talking about Armageddon here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I kind of like all of these west trends now. I'm pretty sure that there will be ticking back to the east a bit in the short term. If we want a hit, it's better that the models are trending west with this thing now and have it at or west of NYC, than if the models were all still grazing E LI. But man, this W ATL ridge is really starting to flex its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Doubt it. I think 1 mile from south shore is all that would need to if it came to it I agree-- I am about 2.5 miles from the Ocean and I am in a Cat 4 zone-- 1 mile should definitely be enough. And that's if they evacuate everyone in Cat 1 and Cat 2 zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I kind of like all of these west trends now. I'm pretty sure that there will be ticking back to the east a bit in the short term. If we want a hit, it's better that the models are trending west with this thing now and have it at or west of NYC, than if the models were all still grazing E LI. But man, this W ATL ridge is really starting to flex its muscles. I honestly cant see why there would be an east trend if the ridge is going to be this strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This would be an extreme overreaction. Of course the whole city wouldn't be evacuated-- just some low-lying shore-front areas. And, not to downplay it-- I hope it's big-- but I wouldn't call it "nuts". We're talking about a fast-moving Cat-1 hurricane. It would be hugely disruptive, but we're not talking about Armageddon here. What do I know. Never thought in my life I'd be experiencing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 The new Euro is very far west...makes landfall in eastern NC and then the surface low tracks over the Chesapeake near DC to just west of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I kind of like all of these west trends now. I'm pretty sure that there will be ticking back to the east a bit in the short term. If we want a hit, it's better that the models are trending west with this thing now and have it at or west of NYC, than if the models were all still grazing E LI. But man, this W ATL ridge is really starting to flex its muscles. Hey now... don't wish too hard... look what you did to the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I kind of like all of these west trends now. I'm pretty sure that there will be ticking back to the east a bit in the short term. If we want a hit, it's better that the models are trending west with this thing now and have it at or west of NYC, than if the models were all still grazing E LI. But man, this W ATL ridge is really starting to flex its muscles. I basically agree with you-- these N-moving cyclone almost always end up shading E again, and like your said, it's better for a solid LI hit for us to start the inevitable E trend from W of NYC. But I don't want 'em trending any more W. That's enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I honestly cant see why there would be an east trend if the ridge is going to be this strong. I don't think the trough is deep enough or negatively tilted enough to completely suck this storm in. The ridge will certainly be helping to push this thing due northward, and the trough will be "phasing" to an extent of course, but I don't think the entire trough is going to suck this thing in. I think at some point, the trough is going to act as a means to push this thing a bit east of due north, and it will be a classic battle between trough and ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I basically agree with you-- these N-moving cyclone almost always end up shading E again, and like your said, it's better for a solid LI hit for us to start the inevitable E trend from W of NYC. But I don't want 'em trending any more W. That's enough. Heh, then you will love the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The new Euro is very far west...makes landfall in eastern NC and then the surface low tracks over the Chesapeake near DC to just west of Philly Is that the low or high res version? Because it looks slightly different on Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 By the way the NOAA HFIP Experimental HWRF from 18Z August 24th is quite similar to the 00Z August 25th ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the Euro verifies, we'll mostly be disappointed as Irene would weaken significantly over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 All of a sudden, it feels as if we are dealing with a weaker version of 2003's Hurricane Isabel, just verbatim on the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 If the Euro verifies, we'll mostly be disappointed as Irene would weaken significantly over land. All of a sudden, it feels as if we are dealing with a weaker version of 2003's Hurricane Isabel, just verbatim on the 0z Euro. It's still the western outlier lol. The early consensus on the 6z models is that they are going further west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On the Euro, Irene is at 968mb just west of Philly, still substantial impacts for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On the Euro, Irene is at 968mb just west of Philly, still substantial impacts for the area. Its not totally impossible the pressure may lag a bit but if the Euro is right we'd see just a very windy day with rain. Even most of those new hurricane model tracks despite the fact they look ominous are going to result in the storm spending too much time near the coast on the way up from NC that it would be remote it would even still be a hurricane and if it was only a very small area would see hurricane force winds. I do thing the storm surge would be severe still, not necessarily from the storm center itself but due to the SSE fetch. The Euro solution if you ask me would be hard pressed to even duplicate the crazy Dec 1992 redux storm a year or two back when JFK gusted to 75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Its not totally impossible the pressure may lag a bit but if the Euro is right we'd see just a very windy day with rain. Even most of those new hurricane model tracks despite the fact they look ominous are going to result in the storm spending too much time near the coast on the way up from NC that it would be remote it would even still be a hurricane and if it was only a very small area would see hurricane force winds. I do thing the storm surge would be severe still, not necessarily from the storm center itself but due to the SSE fetch. The Euro solution if you ask me would be hard pressed to even duplicate the crazy Dec 1992 redux storm a year or two back when JFK gusted to 75 mph. Do you think it would be more like Bertha, SG? I believe that one passed over JFK as a 65mph tropical storm and we had hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Those early cycle 06z models that Alex posted depict almost the worst-case scenario for NYC according to the consensus. It would appear the consensus landfall would be Atlantic City, with a second landfall near the Queens-Nassau county border. I wish there was a more detailed and closer look at those landfall tracks in this area on there; but that is a pretty useful map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please tell me if I am wrong, but it seems like we will not know what is going to happen until the cold front/trough goes through the mid-atlantic area. It seems like once it has gone through the models will have a better idea of what will happen in the mid-atlantic area. So we may not know until Friday what will happen here in the NY metro area. Right now it seems like the models are trying to figure that out and thus the changes in the models. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Please tell me if I am wrong, but it seems like we will not know what is going to happen until the cold front/trough goes through the mid-atlantic area. It seems like once it has gone through the models will have a better idea of what will happen in the mid-atlantic area. So we may not know until Friday what will happen here in the NY metro area. Right now it seems like the models are trying to figure that out and thus the changes in the models. Thoughts? Once we see where it comes in, if at all into NC we'll have a good idea. If it comes in SW of Hatteras its likely game over for LI, a storm entering Wilmington and then cutting NNE would likely drop off significantly in intensity and have its core severely disrupted. If it just brushes the outer banks we know we're in trouble at that point since it would not have the land interaction needed to weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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