tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 and the ridge of the atlantic is becoming more west-expansive this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 wow, man... the ridge is really flexing it's muscle.. this thing has no place to go but north the way it's looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 GFS looks almost identical lso far to 12z euro, looks to come around southern tip of Jersey. Not sure if it rides due north from there or slips east yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 81 just east of the delmarva hr 87 western eyewall brushing acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Hr 90. Irene, meet NYC. NYC, meet Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 i should be saying this in the banter thread.. but holy crapola! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 90 Hours center due south of NYC half over land half over water. This would be epic flooding NYC east. Also more precip on east side than 12z euro, would def. be a tornadic threat here on the north east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 93 ontop of nyc.....very close to the euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 00Z Monday its over the empire state building precip winding down. Direct hit NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup, it definitely does. Plus, the shortwave near New Foundland is further north, which would theoretically give the W ATL ridge room to flex more muscle. This looks great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 96 over the trials house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 that atlantic ridge is going to be the key... more so than that northern stream trough in Canada.. that thing is acting as the blockade to prevent this thing from hooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 9-10 inches of rain for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 that atlantic ridge is going to be the key... more so than that northern stream trough in Canada.. that thing is acting as the blockade to prevent this thing from hooking. Definitely agreed. The trough may or may not try to steer this thing more eastward, but it will automatically be forced back due northward or even NNW if that ridge flexes its muscles. This is why I've been saying that if the storm successfully grazed/hit Hatteras, the synoptics would take care of themselves for a Long Island landfall. And in this case, maybe even into NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 that atlantic ridge is going to be the key... more so than that northern stream trough in Canada.. that thing is acting as the blockade to prevent this thing from hooking. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What's the lowest pressure on impact over nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I can't wait to see what sense NOAA will possibly make out of this. The hurricane makes landfall on LBI for crying out loud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 4" just between 12z and 18z sunday 9-10 inches of rain for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I correct my post. 965 over NYC, that's incredibly low especially on top of nyc, much flooding for surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow-truly, truly scary setup for flooding for most/all low lying areas in NJ/NYC. And there's no long period over land-it basically parallels the coast before coming directly into NYC. I can't think of much worse of a track that this area can sustain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow-truly, truly scary setup for flooding for most/all low lying areas in NJ/NYC. And there's no long period over land-it basically parallels the coast before coming directly into NYC. I can't think of much worse of a track that this area can sustain. What about the winds?!! It' would be a cat 2 or 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 9-10 inches of rain for the metro area HPC agrees. It won't be a pretty picture with all the street, basement and river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The track we see now will not be the final track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow-truly, truly scary setup for flooding for most/all low lying areas in NJ/NYC. And there's no long period over land-it basically parallels the coast before coming directly into NYC. I can't think of much worse of a track that this area can sustain. NCEP isn't working for me. JM, does it go over mainland NC before churning its way up to NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 HPC agrees. It won't be a pretty picture with all the street, basement, coastal and river flooding. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 HPC agrees. It won't be a pretty picture with all the street, basement and river flooding. Yeah.........this track would prob cause the most problems in the area....I wonder if this is done trending west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The track we see now will not be the final track. Most likely, you are correct. But this track may be close to the final one, and close enough that preparations should be underway for everybody for this storm. A hair to the left or right and we still have huge problems on our hands. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The track we see now will not be the final track. Thanks for bringing us back to reality. We won't know for sure until Saturday. Forecast error usually decreases as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 lol... u guys are the best. First time i've been in this section all day and there's more people going ape-sheet in this thread then the BS thread. Major hit for you guys. Wowww. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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