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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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that atlantic ridge is going to be the key... more so than that northern stream trough in Canada.. that thing is acting as the blockade to prevent this thing from hooking.

Definitely agreed. The trough may or may not try to steer this thing more eastward, but it will automatically be forced back due northward or even NNW if that ridge flexes its muscles.

This is why I've been saying that if the storm successfully grazed/hit Hatteras, the synoptics would take care of themselves for a Long Island landfall. And in this case, maybe even into NYC!

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Wow-truly, truly scary setup for flooding for most/all low lying areas in NJ/NYC. And there's no long period over land-it basically parallels the coast before coming directly into NYC. I can't think of much worse of a track that this area can sustain.

What about the winds?!! It' would be a cat 2 or 1?

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Wow-truly, truly scary setup for flooding for most/all low lying areas in NJ/NYC. And there's no long period over land-it basically parallels the coast before coming directly into NYC. I can't think of much worse of a track that this area can sustain.

NCEP isn't working for me. JM, does it go over mainland NC before churning its way up to NYC/LI?

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The track we see now will not be the final track.

Most likely, you are correct. But this track may be close to the final one, and close enough that preparations should be underway for everybody for this storm. A hair to the left or right and we still have huge problems on our hands.

WX/PT

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