Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This was posted on here at 5:15 OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN Recent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This is not a Gloria type scenario where the storm races North at over 40MPH shearing its left side completly like it did back in 1985.This will be a slower storm with the hurricane remaiing intact for a longer period of time.Irene is a huge storm as well so its effects are going to be felt farther away from the storms center than in previous tropical systems.On SEPT 16th 2010,Much of Brooklyn and Queens saw winds of between 80-90MPH outside of the strongest part of the 110-125MPH Macroburst winds and Tornado. You know how long those winds lasted? in most cases less than a minute.Irene has the potential to bring 75-90MPH gusts of winds for a several hour period.Nobody on this board has experienced these types of winds in their lifetime.In addition,the winds will first come from the SE which will blow on the weaker side of the tree roots.Add to that saturated grounds and the potential for Thousands of trees uprooting is a real and probable outcome.Many places will also likely have their wettest month on record as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Closeups added to area of concerns 1 knots = 1.15077945 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It will be fun too see when we start to get in range of the high res models which should provide very detailed info about the specifics. We're almost in range of the NAM on E-WALL. As you can see the numbers are off the charts. Don't be suprised to see a high res model spit out say 20" of rain. I'm not saying thats going to happen, but Irene is forecasted to still be fairly well organized, and I have my serious doubts on some of the lower QPF outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Closeups added to area of concerns 1 knots = 1.15077945 mph ouch, that's Hurricane force into the city, one thing people are not accounting for is that in the city itself, as the wind is forced between the buildings, its going to be accelerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thankfully this is occuring on a weekend. If it were one day later the city would have to be virtually shut down ouch, that's Hurricane force into the city, one thing people are not accounting for is that in the city itself, as the wind is forced between the buildings, its going to be accelerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 In the latest discussion they are mentioning increasing SW shear and weakening beyond day 3, I don't see that at all, and I was told that the SHIPS model is not showing much shear at all. Sure its going to loose some punch on its way up here, but there thinking appears to be nowhere near alot of the modeled intensities. They still have it at Hurricane strength, long after its past us, so they haven't gone all that conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Thankfully this is occuring on a weekend. If it were one day later the city would have to be virtually shut down If Irene's intensity and track are accurately depicted on some of these maps, the city would probably be pretty well shut down on Monday anyway. With this kind of widespread and extreme wind damage and flooding area-wide, travel/commuting would likely be difficult to impossible on Monday even though this would be occurring on Sunday. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The First Hurricane Watch since Gloria will likely go up by tomorrow night,Friday morning I believe for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 0z waves forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could this rival the great March 2010 and December 1992 Nor'easter in terms of impact and damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Could this rival the great March 2010 and December 1992 Nor'easter in terms of impact and damage? March 2010 without a doubt.DEC 1992 very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 even just at 24 hours out, the 00Z GFS looks fairly signifcantly west of 18Z as far as positioning of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 even just at 24 hours out, the 00Z GFS looks fairly signifcantly west of 18Z as far as positioning of the storm Yup, it definitely does. Plus, the shortwave near New Foundland is further north, which would theoretically give the W ATL ridge room to flex more muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 even just at 24 hours out, the 00Z GFS looks fairly signifcantly west of 18Z as far as positioning of the storm We almost don't want it to trend any further west early on or we could have land interaction issues down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup, it definitely does. Plus, the shortwave near New Foundland is further north, which would theoretically give the W ATL ridge room to flex more muscle. yep, I just noticed that too... the westerlies over the northern tier have generally gone lighter.. it's subtle, but it is overall a weaker pattern up north now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 http://www.nj.gov/nj...ion-routes.html http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricaneevac.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Need a login http://www.nj.gov/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/storms_hurricaneevac.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Need a login i edited it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 yep, I just noticed that too... the westerlies over the northern tier have generally gone lighter.. it's subtle, but it is overall a weaker pattern up north now I wonder what effect the new obs over the Northwest will have on the models tomorrow. Hopefully for many of our sakes, Irene tracks a little east of the coast, because a hugger or slightly inland track would be horrendous for many of us on the NJ and south shore locales in terms of surge. A huge SE flow over several tide cycles into NY harbor can produce a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 it'll be interesting what happens with that weak, secondary short wave progged to move through the Ohio valley... this does have a bit of westerly flow associated with it and wonder how much of a factor it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Slightly more southwest than the previous run through hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It was pretty neat seeing the weather channel show the animation from the Euro and GFS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looks a tad stronger and more centered than the 12z so far, put the center of circulation hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 West at hour 60. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 66 its further west....going to make landfall on the outerbanks or just to the west......worse case for the outerbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 it is consistantly continuing to be southwest of prior run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 definitely a bit further west, W ATL riding looks stronger and more favorably oriented, and the storm looks to be "phasing" better into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking a little more like the Euro no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 and the ridge of the atlantic is becoming more west-expansive this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.