goldalex Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It's been so long since something hit here it certainly is sureal. I have vague memories of Bob and the heavy rains. Certainly hope this isn't as bad as it has the potential to be but the weenie in me wants to see her strike us head on full force... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I feel the same way....I can't get a Hurricane Bob track out of my head, even as the past 12 hours of models have swung things back west across Long Island. Time will tell. I can respect that, I'm 26 and I've never seen anything even close to this, however when you have the GFS, EC and the hurricane models tightly clustered its hard to argue against their consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Alex not sure if you saw this thread with past analog storms/tracks. I added the 1893 storm. http://www.americanw...797#entry910797 Thanks, Tony-- looks like you got them all! But since you did go back to 1821, you should go slightly further back to 1804 October 1804 had the famous snowicane that bisected our area and dropped over a foot of snow in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 west of 18z..most showing Long Island landfall Throw out the BAMM and BAMS as unreliable for a deep system, and the GFDL for being unable to handle mid-latitude synoptics (from main thread), and you have an amazing agreement on track to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 1944 analog is probably the most fearsome for the most people. The NJ shore and most of LI/New England got wrecked, even though the storm was offshore. I couldn't imagine the damage if the storm did make landfall. This is pretty wild-- besides the hurricane, we also had a 5.8 earthquake that summer, centered in NY State! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Cornwall-Massena_earthquake he 1944 Cornwall-Massena earthquake occurred on Tuesday, September 5, 1944, at roughly 12:40am EST in Massena, New York. It was registered as a magnitude 5.8 on the Richter scale and was felt for a great distance. This area is part of the Saint Lawrence River Valley and the seismically active zone known as the Saint Lawrence rift system. The earthquake is the largest known in New York's recorded history.Contents [hide] 1 Damage 2 Epicenter 3 The WWII Scare 4 References [edit] Damage The earthquake was felt as far away as New York City, Quebec City, Toronto, and Boston and caused roughly $2 million dollars in property damage. Several large aftershocks were felt in the general area, described as a low rumble followed by a loud bang. In the village of Massena, New York, approximately 90 percent of its chimneys were destroyed or damaged, along with heavy damage to masonry structures. It was also reported that cracks appeared in the ground around the town of Hogansburg, located 10 miles east of Massena. There were also reports of wells that dried up, and a crack in a deep alluvium north of Massena Center oozed water and sand. Damage to the city of Cornwall, Ontario, was heavier due to a denser population and its geological location; many structures foundations were built on sand. The Collegiate and Vocational School in the area received heavy damage from masonry work falling through the roof of the gymnasium. [edit] Epicenter The epicenter is located in the vicinity of Massena Center, a small hamlet located 3.5 miles east of the village of Massena. Research was taken from inspecting the local graveyards which had seen damage done in the form of headstones rotating on their foundations. In the city of Cornwall, the French Cemetery, Saint Columban's Cemetery and Woodlawn Cemetery were inspected and found that the headstones had turned counter-clockwise. In the town of Massena, Calvary Cemetery and Massena Center Cemetery were inspected and found the headstones had turned clockwise. Its epicenter was determined to have been located in the hamlet of Massena Center due to the greater damage of the hamlet itself and the severe rotation found in the cemetery. All chimneys received severe damage along with several reports of foundation damage. [edit] The WWII Scare Many of the citizens of Massena who were woken by the earthquake evacuated their homes and scanned the skies for German planes believing that the Germans were attacking the ALCOA smelting plant located on the eastern end of the village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Back then we were worried about Germans, now it's terrorists-- it's always something lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Throw out the BAMM and BAMS as unreliable for a deep system, and the GFDL for being unable to handle mid-latitude synoptics (from main thread), and you have an amazing agreement on track to LI. Throw out the euro also? Not until the euro caves east, is there an agreement. Every 6 hours, those dynamic models are ticking west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I can remember the evacuation calls back in 1976 and 1985.They had cars driving around all the different neighborhoods with loudspeakers urging people to evacuate.What is crazy about the timing is all those tents and light structures that are being set up down by Riverside and Edwards for the Quicksilver Surf Competition and all the concerts that are planned. Yeah. I wonder what they'll do if the boardwalk and all these tents get destroyed this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have been saying for many years now that a Hurricane with winds of between 80-90 MPH is going to cause a tremendous amount of damage around this area.This is going to be quite a bt stronger than the March 13 2010 storm.We have fully leafed trees.Add to that the probably of significant storm surge flooding which WILL see Long Beach,JOnes Beach and Robert Moses State Park completly inundated with very high storm surge,Worse than DEC 1992.IF this storm hits like expected,this will be a life changing event for a lot of people in the eyewll and even further away for the eye unfortunately.Power is going to be out for quite awhile as well.I hope that the severity of this situation changes and we get a lesser impact.I dont want to see people on this board suffer substantial house and property damage.One piece of advice.If you are told to evacuate your area,PLEASE do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have been saying for many years now that a Hurricane with winds of between 80-90 MPH is going to cause a tremendous amount of damage around this area.This is going to be quite a bt stronger than the March 13 2010 storm.We have fully leafed trees.Add to that the probably of significant storm surge flooding which WILL see Long Beach,JOnes Beach and Robert Moses State Park completly inundated with very high storm surge,Worse than DEC 1992.IF this storm hits like expected,this will be a life changing event for a lot of people in the eyewll and even further away for the eye unfortunately.Power is going to be out for quite awhile as well.I hope that the severity of this situation changes and we get a lesser impact.I dont want to see people on this board suffer substantial house and property damage.One piece of advice.If you are told to evacuate your area,PLEASE do so. I have to agree with CAT5 on this one... I am in the "danger zone" being in dix hills, with lots of trees around.. I'm beginning to even get a little worried.. The last time we had winds like this was Gloria and I was 8 years old.. I remember the effects of that storm very well.. The tree damage this type of storm can create and w/ the 500k more people living in the region now will result in a catastrophic event should this play out as the models are depicting.. Any type of landfall in the western Nassau County area will mean crazy damage from that landfall area on east.. As CAT5 states- the beaches will be uttlerly destroyed especially if this comes in at high tide w/ the new moon and all.. Most people on LI are clueless as to what this type of event can and will do.. People are going to think - ahhh cat 1 or low end cat 2- we've watched the news and heard about cat 5's etc.. this can't be bad.. Well, after they see what winds over 75 mph can do to the trees on LI - they'll undoubtedly change their tune.. The big question that I see w/ this storm when comparing it to say a storm like Gloria is simply where this storm comes ashore.. Gloria came in around Babylon, NY... The effects from Gloria weren't really felt all that badly in Nassau county.. With this storm, if it were to come in 30 miles to the west of where Gloria came in, for example - Nassau County will undoubtedly be damaged beyond anything it has seen in many generations.. This is what I fear and i guess we'll all have to just wait and see.. My gut says that this storm comes in further east - say between Robert Moses and Montauk... Obviously the further east this storm hits the less the very populous Nassau County will be effected by the the severe elements of this storm.. just my thoughts. Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have to agree with CAT5 on this one... I am in the "danger zone" being in dix hills, with lots of trees around.. I'm beginning to even get a little worried.. The last time we had winds like this was Gloria and I was 8 years old.. I remember the effects of that storm very well.. The tree damage this type of storm can create and w/ the 500k more people living in the region now will result in a catastrophic event should this play out as the models are depicting.. Any type of landfall in the western Nassau County area will mean crazy damage from that landfall area on east.. As CAT5 states- the beaches will be uttlerly destroyed especially if this comes in at high tide w/ the new moon and all.. Most people on LI are clueless as to what this type of event can and will do.. People are going to think - ahhh cat 1 or low end cat 2- we've watched the news and heard about cat 5's etc.. this can't be bad.. Well, after they see what winds over 75 mph can do to the trees on LI - they'll undoubtedly change their tune.. The big question that I see w/ this storm when comparing it to say a storm like Gloria is simply where this storm comes ashore.. Gloria came in around Babylon, NY... The effects from Gloria weren't really felt all that badly in Nassau county.. With this storm, if it were to come in 30 miles to the west of where Gloria came in, for example - Nassau County will undoubtedly be damaged beyond anything it has seen in many generations.. This is what I fear and i guess we'll all have to just wait and see.. My gut says that this storm comes in further east - say between Robert Moses and Montauk... Obviously the further east this storm hits the less the very populous Nassau County will be effected by the the severe elements of this storm.. just my thoughts. Jeff The problem is this storm is MUCH larger than Gloria, and you have to compare it to something like 1944. Gloria was falling apart as it came ashore and was much less than what it was supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The problem is this storm is MUCH larger than Gloria, and you have to compare it to something like 1944. Gloria was falling apart as it came ashore and was much less than what it was supposed to be. it was less than what it was suppose to be in Nassau county- because Nassau county was on the left hand side of the storm.. also - gloria wasn't so small- however, i will agree- based upon this picture of the storm off the North Carolina coast- Gloria did look like ****- even this far south.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Gloria_south_of_North_Carolina.gif If Irene is a Strong Cat 3 off the coast of North Carolina and looks better than this- and is dead set on coming into Long Island - WATCH OUT!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Throw out the euro also? Not until the euro caves east, is there an agreement. Every 6 hours, those dynamic models are ticking west. all of that depends on the UL trough over canada, that energy is just coming ashore now so we should have a clearer picture soon. But lets be honest, for 100+ hours out, we have a very good idea of where this things going to hit, the models more or less are in general agreement that the eye will pass somewhere between NNJ and LI, which at this point, is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 it was less than what it was suppose to be in Nassau county- because Nassau county was on the left hand side of the storm.. also - gloria wasn't so small- however, i will agree- based upon this picture of the storm off the North Carolina coast- Gloria did look like ****- even this far south.. http://en.wikipedia....th_Carolina.gif If Irene is a Strong Cat 3 off the coast of North Carolina and looks better than this- and is dead set on coming into Long Island - WATCH OUT!!!!!!!! WATCH OUT!!!!! is right. this storm means business already and if it does come ashore somewhere in nassua county, western suffolk as a strong cat 1 or 2 the general population on long island i dont think are smart enough to truly understand the potential power this storm could unleash on the area. nevermind just the high winds of 85mph or more, the torrential rains, the very high surge which brought up earlier would surely inundate the south shore beaches and the chance of substantial property damage/loss of life. lets face it as of todays models runs we are currently facing down the barrel of potentially dangerous storm for this area. bottomline i hope that people do listen to emergency personel on instructions for evacuation if and when there issued. dont mean to sound so dramatic but we've all seen devestation from tropical cyclones before on tv, some in person but when its headed for your area it kinda peaks a different interest or atleast to me it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NAM definitely seems a tick farther east on it's 00z run so far with the entire system. We will see what impacts this has on it's 84 hour position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NAM definitely seems a tick farther east on it's 00z run so far with the entire system. We will see what impacts this has on it's 84 hour position. yea.. I was just checking out the NAM myself.. I guess we have to let it play out, because it's that last part of the track that'll either go north or north-northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The NAM definitely seems a tick farther east on it's 00z run so far with the entire system. We will see what impacts this has on it's 84 hour position. You can sort of tell when you compare at the h5 level 00z 66 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=066&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M 18z 72 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F24%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=072&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Landfall with NC at hour 78. When Irene makes NC landfall, models then track it to NYC/LI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=078&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have to agree with CAT5 on this one... I am in the "danger zone" being in dix hills, with lots of trees around.. I'm beginning to even get a little worried.. The last time we had winds like this was Gloria and I was 8 years old.. I remember the effects of that storm very well.. The tree damage this type of storm can create and w/ the 500k more people living in the region now will result in a catastrophic event should this play out as the models are depicting.. Any type of landfall in the western Nassau County area will mean crazy damage from that landfall area on east.. As CAT5 states- the beaches will be uttlerly destroyed especially if this comes in at high tide w/ the new moon and all.. Most people on LI are clueless as to what this type of event can and will do.. People are going to think - ahhh cat 1 or low end cat 2- we've watched the news and heard about cat 5's etc.. this can't be bad.. Well, after they see what winds over 75 mph can do to the trees on LI - they'll undoubtedly change their tune.. The big question that I see w/ this storm when comparing it to say a storm like Gloria is simply where this storm comes ashore.. Gloria came in around Babylon, NY... The effects from Gloria weren't really felt all that badly in Nassau county.. With this storm, if it were to come in 30 miles to the west of where Gloria came in, for example - Nassau County will undoubtedly be damaged beyond anything it has seen in many generations.. This is what I fear and i guess we'll all have to just wait and see.. My gut says that this storm comes in further east - say between Robert Moses and Montauk... Obviously the further east this storm hits the less the very populous Nassau County will be effected by the the severe elements of this storm.. just my thoughts. Jeff Absolutely agree about the Nassau comments re Gloria, and that perception was out there despite the fact that SE Nassau was definitely affected. Remember how long people were without power? Some places were out what 6, 7, days? And as you say, it was a category one. Not sure if you remember Tobay Beach before and after, but it went from a beach with a tremendous trek through the sand to the water at low tide to one where there was no place to sit at high tide in some places (Not to mention it wiped out the main beach house.) It's one thing to be giddy about a snowstorm. There's nothing fun about having no power for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NAM is definitely on the westerly consensus of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The models are really locked in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 yea.. extrapolating the NAM, it would seem that this is a more westerly track.. is it a bit slower still than the others? I have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 latest update is out from NHC.. pressure is 952 mb.. they said they might have to tweak down the winds slightly.. no change in the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 11pm advisory shifted very slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Long Island appears to be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 From OKX: OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I believe that is old From OKX: OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 As of the 11pm update hurricane force winds are now up to 70 miles and tropical storm force winds 255 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Recent I believe that is old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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