NickD2011 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We're really on a thin margin of error. Too far west and the storm weakens over the Outer Banks. Too far east and we have a cloudy day. I predict a strong cat 1 landfall between Hampton Bays and Montauk. I'm going to be in Atlantic City this weekend, so hopefully it gets hit hard (and I win big). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES... Yup. This is not a tiny hurricane with a small wind field. Even the 18z GFS, which made a magical east turn and landed in the Hampton bays, would only put it 50-60 miles east of Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at the historical tracks I cant find one storm to track west of LI that was east of 74 at 35N. All the storms that hit NYC/NJ or west were from storms initially inland. 1903 seems to be a notable exception from the tracks I am looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The three analogs I was thinking of were 1821, 1893 and 1938 lol. What do 38 and 1821 really have in common, other than the fact they were monsters that at some point hit New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wed Aug 24 22:16:12 2011 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 242215 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD2214Z WED AUG 24 2011NWSHQ DIRECTIVE TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS /SOUNDINGS/...SDM IS HEREBY RELAYING A DIRECTIVE FROM NWSHQ FOR WFO/SIN ALL OF EASTERN..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS PLUS MONTANA IN WESTERN REGION TO LAUNCH SIX-HOURLY RAOBS/SOUNDINGS/ BEGINNING AT THU 25 AUG 06Z AND UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS DIRECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE ADDITIONALDATA INPUT WHICH SHOULD HELP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INFORECASTING THE FUTURE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF HURRICANE IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Also, here's the GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wonder if people really will be able to comprehend the impacts from Irene even if structural damage isn't very bad to homes. I remember seeing estimates of 250K-500K without power for up to a week if not much more, shut down roads/trains, etc. Not to mention damage to bridges and tunnels. People might think of an 85 or 90 mph hurricane and scoff, but it's still a very severe event for this area. We're just not prepared here the way Florida is, and just an evacuation would be a disaster in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What do 38 and 1821 really have in common, other than the fact they were monsters that at some point hit New England? It's a mix of track and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yup. This is not a tiny hurricane with a small wind field. Even the 18z GFS, which made a magical east turn and landed in the Hampton bays, would only put it 50-60 miles east of Queens. The wind field will likely expand as it comes further north and starts to weaken/become extratropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I wonder if people really will be able to comprehend the impacts from Irene even if structural damage isn't very bad to homes. I remember seeing estimates of 250K-500K without power for up to a week if not much more, shut down roads/trains, etc. Not to mention damage to bridges and tunnels. People might think of an 85 or 90 mph hurricane and scoff, but it's still a very severe event for this area. We're just not prepared here the way Florida is, and just an evacuation would be a disaster in itself. I think you'll get evacuated-- just my gut feeling, but they wont take chances. Your area floods easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at the historical tracks I cant find one storm to track west of LI that was east of 74 at 35N. All the storms that hit NYC/NJ or west were from storms initially inland. 1903 seems to be a notable exception from the tracks I am looking at. Look up 1893. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The wind field will likely expand as it comes further north and starts to weaken/become extratropical. Another analog to look at is 1944. Huge windfield, destroyed the Jersey Shore and inundated Long Beach Island even though it made landfall east of 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The new GFDL hits eastern NJ thru Western LI, it's In the main thread page, you guys have to check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I' not pulling my boat and bertha did a number on my old boat pulled the rear cleats right out of her and rode that baby out on the dock . To old for that crap today bertha missed and was angry i slapped her a high five and i'll never do that again. I was in 20 miles north of andrew horrible nuke alot of dead illegals who stayed in the tralor parks they were afraid to evac it was ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Look up 1893. I didnt go prior to 1930 at first then 1900. Those seem to be the only two. Bob, Edna, Carol, Gloria, 1944, 1938, Belle, and a bunch of OTS. We've been having a lot of first ever or once in hunderd(s) years type events lately so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another analog to look at is 1944. Huge windfield, destroyed the Jersey Shore and inundated Long Beach Island even though it made landfall east of 1938. Alex not sure if you saw this thread with past analog storms/tracks. I added the 1893 storm. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24335-irenes-past-cousins/page__gopid__910797#entry910797 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That GFDL track looks intense, but the strength of the storm is obviously overdone in this occasion as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another analog to look at is 1944. Huge windfield, destroyed the Jersey Shore and inundated Long Beach Island even though it made landfall east of 1938. The 1944 analog is probably the most fearsome for the most people. The NJ shore and most of LI/New England got wrecked, even though the storm was offshore. I couldn't imagine the damage if the storm did make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 1944 analog is probably the most fearsome for the most people. The NJ shore and most of LI/New England got wrecked, even though the storm was offshore. I couldn't imagine the damage if the storm did make landfall. That was a really damaging hurricane for us. http://www.nan.usace.army.mil/project/newyork/lbeach/index.php?damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 1944 analog is probably the most fearsome for the most people. The NJ shore and most of LI/New England got wrecked, even though the storm was offshore. I couldn't imagine the damage if the storm did make landfall. there;s been some talk that that storm was perhaps closer to the shore than depicted given the pressures at ACY and some other sites...no way to prove, but interesting nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 from new eng thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That was a really damaging hurricane for us. http://www.nan.usace...ndex.php?damage We really are way overdue here for something like this. We had a number of bad ones from the late 1930s-1960s, then we had Gloria/Bob, and now a relative calm. I also doubt that many people would heed evacuation warnings here, because of how long it's been, and sheer complacency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 from new eng thread wow. talk about consensus. Seems like this thing is really coming. i still dont believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 We really are way overdue here for something like this. We had a number of bad ones from the late 1930s-1960s, then we had Gloria/Bob, and now a relative calm. I also doubt that many people would heed evacuation warnings here, because of how long it's been, and sheer complacency. I can remember the evacuation calls back in 1976 and 1985.They had cars driving around all the different neighborhoods with loudspeakers urging people to evacuate.What is crazy about the timing is all those tents and light structures that are being set up down by Riverside and Edwards for the Quicksilver Surf Competition and all the concerts that are planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I was in Walmart buying an LED lantern tonight and people were starting to congregate in the camping section. I agree, though, that most people are complacent and sometimes plain old stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 wow. talk about consensus. Seems like this thing is really coming. i still dont believe it. west of 18z..most showing Long Island landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So how many people out there still believe that this is going to be a swing and a miss OTS? The overwhelming consensus is for a direct impact and landfall somewhere in Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 So how many people out there still believe that this is going to be a swing and a miss OTS? The overwhelming consensus is for a direct impact and landfall somewhere in Long Island. Living here my whole life and having so many misses OTS...i still deep down think it will miss...thats what 25 years of groundhog day will do to you...i wont believe it until i see the eye south of the long island moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Living here my whole life and having so many misses OTS...i still deep down think it will miss...thats what 25 years of groundhog day will do to you...i wont believe it until i see the eye south of the long island moving north. I feel the same way....I can't get a Hurricane Bob track out of my head, even as the past 12 hours of models have swung things back west across Long Island. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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