Hurricane Irene

[KEITH L.I]

I put this together, in case anyone cares.

lol..that is not Hampton Bays..that is central Long Island..more like Islip,Sayville area

[A-L-E-X]

lol..that is not Hampton Bays..that is central Long Island..more like Islip,Sayville area

That's almost exactly where Gloria made landfall-- near Bay Shore.

[Dsnowx53]

lol..that is not Hampton Bays..that is central Long Island..more like Islip,Sayville area

oh sorry, that's my forecast, not what the GFS says.

[ag3]

oh sorry, that's my forecast, not what the GFS says.

Can u post the wunderground map? I'm on my phone and it's hard to navigate that site.

Thanks Doug. Everything else I saw looks like a Western Suffolk landfall. Near Oak Beach/RobertMoses

[A-L-E-X]

At some point we should open a contest thread about landfall location, intensity in terms of winds and pressure, etc. Winner gets free drugs from Ant

[SnowGoose69]

At some point we should open a contest thread about landfall location, intensity in terms of winds and pressure, etc. Winner gets free drugs from Ant

Just make sure its not something that has to be refrigerated.

[Dsnowx53]

Can u post the wunderground map? I'm on my phone and it's hard to navigate that site.

Thanks Doug. Everything else I saw looks like a Western Suffolk landfall. Near Oak Beach/RobertMoses

Sure. Here it is:

[A-L-E-X]

Just make sure its not something that has to be refrigerated.

lol I think my power goes too. Do you think the landfall point may actually be west of where Gloria came ashore, SG?

[Dsnowx53]

I don't want to post too many wunderground images, but I'll explain more here. At 90 and 93 hours, it looks like it's headed for Western Suffolk, but then it makes a more dramatic east turn, so it pretty much moves due NE on average, from hours 90 to 96. NNE to NE from 90 to 93, and NE to almost ENE from 93 to 96.

[Rjay]

That's almost exactly where Gloria made landfall-- near Bay Shore.

Gloria made landfall on the south shore of nassau co

[ag3]

Thanks Doug.

[A-L-E-X]

Gloria made landfall on the south shore of nassau co

Im not so sure-- I believe Gloria made landfall in wester Suffolk County between Babylon and Bayshore. Belle and Floyd made landfall in Nassau County near Jones Beach and Bertha made landfall in Queens near JFK.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't want to post too many wunderground images, but I'll explain more here. At 90 and 93 hours, it looks like it's headed for Western Suffolk, but then it makes a more dramatic east turn, so it pretty much moves due NE on average, from hours 90 to 96. NNE to NE from 90 to 93, and NE to almost ENE from 93 to 96.

So it's basically trying to stay away from land as much as possible lol. By that time, most of the damage is done already though.

[Rjay]

So it's basically trying to stay away from land as much as possible lol. By that time, most of the damage is done already though.

I promise u, Gloria's eye went right overhead

[SnowGoose69]

lol I think my power goes too. Do you think the landfall point may actually be west of where Gloria came ashore, SG?

Not yet, but if some of the hurricane models begin coming west as well and the GFS/Euro continue doing the same then its possible. Again, its a very thread the needle situation because a bit more west and this may not arrive as a hurricane. The Euro track is very close to the Delmarva and NJ the entire way up the coast, that would likely result in the storm weakening. Its odd how some models show a similar motion to 1938, the turn to the N-NE and then a re-adjust back to the north.

[Dsnowx53]

So it's basically trying to stay away from land as much as possible lol. By that time, most of the damage is done already though.

It's the classic fight between the ridge and the trough. It'll initially try to fly out NE after skimming Hatteras, but the W ATL ridge will flex its muscles, and Irene will turn nearly due north for a bit. But then after gaining latitude, I think the trough will have a stronger impact on the storm again, allowing Irene to bend back NE before hitting Long Island. That's pretty much what I have in my forecast. It's actually very similar to the GFS, only it's shifted a bit westward from it. (I made my map before seeing the 18z GFS )

[earthlight]

[ag3]

What is that a cat 3 over mid LI?

That's ridiculous.

[Stormlover74]

Got this off facebook from the NWS

[blizzardof09]

looking at that map and seeing what a storm like that has the potential to do. its gonna be scary for some and probably the biggest weather event we've covered on this forum. still 4 days out though

[jm1220]

It's the classic fight between the ridge and the trough. It'll initially try to fly out NE after skimming Hatteras, but the W ATL ridge will flex its muscles, and Irene will turn nearly due north for a bit. But then after gaining latitude, I think the trough will have a stronger impact on the storm again, allowing Irene to bend back NE before hitting Long Island. That's pretty much what I have in my forecast. It's actually very similar to the GFS, only it's shifted a bit westward from it.

It's amazing the kind of agreement the models have for this time range-only about a 100 mile or so range between them for our area. It's also starting to become a scary situation-if some of the models are right and we potentially avoid much land interaction before landfall here, it could be a devastating storm for many. If the storm isn't trucking along at this latitude, dry land air and the colder sea surface will start to kill it for sure, so I would expect somewhat of a "halfacane" with a much more robust front end than the dry eroded back end, and obviously it would be almost impossible to have a 930mb storm this far north, not much higher in pressure than Hurricane Andrew before landfall in FL. But I shudder to imagine how much flood and wind damage even a 90 mph hurricane at high astronomical tide would cause. I wonder if this will be the first mandatory evacuation of Long Beach I've ever lived through.

[jm1220]

looking at that map and seeing what a storm like that has the potential to do. its gonna be scary for some and probably the biggest weather event we've covered on this forum. still 4 days out though

928mb is obscene for this far north, and with its closeness to land. Remember, dry air will be streaming into the storm likely all the way from its near/landfall in NC. Just to compare, Hurricane Andrew was 922mb just before landfall in FL.

[blizzardof09]

928mb is obscene for this far north, and with its closeness to land. Remember, dry air will be streaming into the storm likely all the way from its near/landfall in NC. Just to compare, Hurricane Andrew was 922mb just before landfall in FL.

yea i realize that is farfetched and it is most likely incorrect. we would only need a strong cat 1 to hit the same location on long island to still cause lots of damage, both from winds but from the intense rainfall, astronomical high tides and possible tornadic activity

[Dsnowx53]

It's amazing the kind of agreement the models have for this time range-only about a 100 mile or so range between them for our area. It's also starting to become a scary situation-if some of the models are right and we potentially avoid much land interaction before landfall here, it could be a devastating storm for many. If the storm isn't trucking along at this latitude, dry land air and the colder sea surface will start to kill it for sure, so I would expect somewhat of a "halfacane" with a much more robust front end than the dry eroded back end, and obviously it would be almost impossible to have a 930mb storm this far north, not much higher in pressure than Hurricane Andrew before landfall in FL. But I shudder to imagine how much flood and wind damage even a 90 mph hurricane at high astronomical tide would cause. I wonder if this will be the first mandatory evacuation of Long Beach I've ever lived through.

Yeah, I even said last night that Long Island weather enthusiasts "want" the scenario where the storm only grazes Hatteras, and not further west, because the further west scenario obviously weakens the storm, and we have enough of a weakness between the two troughs, and enough strength with the W ATL ridge that the storm will be able to move nearly due north for quite a while. This would really, really, gather up the surge for our beaches, to say the least.

The east trend last night as in a way a good thing for weather enthusiasts up here, since it pretty much eliminated the possibility of the storm getting too far inland around the Carolinas and Virginia. I figured that if the storm grazed or briefly hit Hatteras, that the synoptics would take care of themselves and send the storm to a Long Island landfall.

[Diego]

Im not so sure-- I believe Gloria made landfall in wester Suffolk County between Babylon and Bayshore. Belle and Floyd made landfall in Nassau County near Jones Beach and Bertha made landfall in Queens near JFK.

It came in right over the Nassau/Suffolk County Line. I was in Dix Hills at that time and it's eastern side actually passed over me, and the winds were coming out of the south just before it arrived.

[A-L-E-X]

I promise u, Gloria's eye went right overhead

It went right overhead here too-- the eye opened up and became huge-- not as big as Donna, but still big.

[A-L-E-X]

It's the classic fight between the ridge and the trough. It'll initially try to fly out NE after skimming Hatteras, but the W ATL ridge will flex its muscles, and Irene will turn nearly due north for a bit. But then after gaining latitude, I think the trough will have a stronger impact on the storm again, allowing Irene to bend back NE before hitting Long Island. That's pretty much what I have in my forecast. It's actually very similar to the GFS, only it's shifted a bit westward from it. (I made my map before seeing the 18z GFS )

It's such a fine line though and it could just as easily not make that turn and go straight north like 1893 and 1938 did.

[SnowGoose69]

It came in right over the Nassau/Suffolk County Line. I was in Dix Hills at that time and it's eastern side actually passed over me, and the winds were coming out of the south just before it arrived.

It exited over the Mt. Sinai area, so having a motion of 020-030 as it did its likely thats exactly where it came in. I believe Fire Island inlet is about where it came in.

[A-L-E-X]

Not yet, but if some of the hurricane models begin coming west as well and the GFS/Euro continue doing the same then its possible. Again, its a very thread the needle situation because a bit more west and this may not arrive as a hurricane. The Euro track is very close to the Delmarva and NJ the entire way up the coast, that would likely result in the storm weakening. Its odd how some models show a similar motion to 1938, the turn to the N-NE and then a re-adjust back to the north.

The three analogs I was thinking of were 1821, 1893 and 1938 lol.

[SVT450R]

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...