Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 arghh, mean to post this in this thread, not the main one. Just comparing the last 2 euro runs..on the 12z run the trough looks faster and not as sharp, allowing irene to hug the coast more and actually tick NNW once the atlantic ridge tries to build in its nose westward.. This is a very dangerous and fragile setup. Im curious to see what the GFS does in its next few runs, trends are key (epecially at 500mb).. I'd place my bets on a central-eastern LI landfall right now as a category 1 hurricane aka - Gloria repeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 18z NAM is, as one poster stated, farther west. It's actually very close to landfalling at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 New discussion is out. They talk about how the Euro was more amplified with the trough and how that model now defines the western edge of the guidance. They also note that overall, models have nudged westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From Upton's new AFD: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... S FRONT WILL STALL OUT PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY...AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A DRYING FORECAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NW TO SE IN THE MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT WORKS ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF HURRICANE IRENE WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE ACTUALLY SEE INTO SATURDAY...BUT DO SEE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS FAR SE ZONES AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN. IN THE WAKE OF IRENE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY FAR ENOUGH SO...THAT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY - DO EXPECT SOME SUN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE FROM IRENE WILL HELP TO LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO SOME EXTENT...EVEN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH HPC GUIDANCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON IRENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 When we say the euro breaks down winds fast do we mean sustained or gust cause we can have TS sustained but hurricane gust, accuwx has 90mph gust and 56 sustained in Brooklyn haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From Upton's new AFD: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... S FRONT WILL STALL OUT PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY...AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A DRYING FORECAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NW TO SE IN THE MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT WORKS ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF HURRICANE IRENE WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE ACTUALLY SEE INTO SATURDAY...BUT DO SEE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS FAR SE ZONES AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN. IN THE WAKE OF IRENE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY FAR ENOUGH SO...THAT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY - DO EXPECT SOME SUN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE FROM IRENE WILL HELP TO LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO SOME EXTENT...EVEN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH HPC GUIDANCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON IRENE. This is actually a pretty frightening discussion. I'm just here till Wednesday visiting from Israel and never did I think beforehand that I'd have to prepare for a hurricane. But deep down I'm pretty excited too hehe :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 From Upton's new AFD: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... S FRONT WILL STALL OUT PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY...AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A DRYING FORECAST DURING THE DAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM NW TO SE IN THE MORNING. GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS FRONT WORKS ITS WAY BACK TO THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF HURRICANE IRENE WILL HELP TO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE ACTUALLY SEE INTO SATURDAY...BUT DO SEE THE CASE FOR LIKELY POPS FAR SE ZONES AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER-BANDS FROM IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION IN ERNEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THINGS DETERIORATING FURTHER SUNDAY AS A IRENE APPROACHES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE AS IRENE PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE SIZE OF IRENE...DO NOT FOCUS JUST ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS ITS DANGEROUSLY STRONG WIND FIELD LIKELY WILL ENVELOP MOST OF THE REGION...EVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE IRENE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS/RAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...AND DEFINITELY SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO TAKE ANY ACTION THEN. IN THE WAKE OF IRENE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY FAR ENOUGH SO...THAT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950 HPA WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY - DO EXPECT SOME SUN FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE FROM IRENE WILL HELP TO LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO SOME EXTENT...EVEN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH HPC GUIDANCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON IRENE. I wonder how ominous any disco will be tomorrow and after if these trends keep up. Having a 940s hurricane steaming up Delaware Bay is about as scary as it gets for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Via twitter @LeeGoldbergABC7Very real possibility Irene makes landfall Sunday on Long Island as a Cat 2. #Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Via twitter @LeeGoldbergABC7Very real possibility Irene makes landfall Sunday on Long Island as a Cat 2. #Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z gfs alot further west....kisses the nj shore line-eastern Li......then up into RI 7-8 inches of rain for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow at GFS. Looks like a Nassau County landfall at 96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow at GFS. Looks like a Nassau County landfall at 96? looks like the western edge of the eye would cross far western suffolk at its furthest west point. Very gloria-esqe in track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z GFS puts it right over my apartment..ok now this is getting serious..ummm they still make portable radio's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I dont see much of a ENE movement at all as it moves northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GFS is crazy..right over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12Z ECMWF puts the right front quad eyewall right on my house Scarystuff My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hot off the presses from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anybody have the pressure at landfall from GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hot off the presses from HPC That says issued on Tuesday. Today is Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That says issued on Tuesday. Today is Wednesday. Says August 24th for me, I think you have to clear your cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Goodness gracious, a definitive shift in the models today, due to that weakening trough in the pacific, well part of the reason, but this is getting pretty definitive. 0z tonight might make this solution more certain. Hopefully Irene can continually strengthen over the next 24 hours to a Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Says August 24th for me, I think you have to clear your cache. Wow. I first looked at it and it said Tuesday. Now says Wednesday. Sorry. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Anybody have the pressure at landfall from GFS? 966 western Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like the western edge of the eye would cross far western suffolk at its furthest west point. Very gloria-esqe in track I remember Bill said the best consensus is developed when you average the GFS and EURO tracks-- of course, that's once we're within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 966 western Suffolk Gloria repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The GFS has the landfall in Eastern Suffolk, pretty much right on the Hampton Bays. Definitely a west shift from 12z, but it's not on Western Suffolk. Take a look at the wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I put this together, in case anyone cares. This is my forecast. I have it making landfall right around Bayport, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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