TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hour 108. After 108, winds break down to well below TS criteria: But the water would continue to pile up regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What's the qpf output for the Euro? Dry for NYC and LI. Very wet for anyone west of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Dry for NYC and LI. Very wet for anyone west of the eye. obviously there will be feeder bands going in the eastern quadrant. Isolated tornadoes would be a concern with a track to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro has support from the experimental version of the GFS..Almost to an exact: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 AG3, what imacts if any do you think this will have on Flushing Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 AG3, what imacts if any do you think this will have on Flushing Bay? That bay need strong northerly winds to flood. I guess, on the backside of this, we can see stronger winds from a northerly direction. The way the euro depicts the storm, the western south shore of LI/Brooklyn and all of SI, will have the strongest push of surge waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not too fond of a track to our west as the lack of real rain will take away from out experience with a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not too fond of a track to our west as the lack of real rain will take away from out experience with a tropical system. again this is an outliner..most other models bring it over eastern Long Island.I guess a compromise would put everybody in play.i guess we'll start to know by 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not too fond of a track to our west as the lack of real rain will take away from out experience with a tropical system. With the amount of water coming in from the atlantic you won't even know you didn't get a foot of rain plus you will see water spouts and/or tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That bay need strong northerly winds to flood. I guess, on the backside of this, we can see stronger winds from a northerly direction. The way the euro depicts the storm, the western south shore of LI/Brooklyn and all of SI, will have the strongest push of surge waters. Ah ok, thanks for the explanation. Was always curious as to what it would take to flood Flushing Bay, not that I would ever want it to flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If you take a Gfs/Euro blend the hurricane would strike the western part of LI and we would see torrential rainfall, all options on the table...at the very least this is going to be quite a show for the coast with tremendous waves, beach erosion and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 With the amount of water coming in from the atlantic you won't even know you didn't get a foot of rain plus you will see water spouts and/or tornados. North shore of the island by me is very difficult to flood. The topography is not really conducive for piling water efficiently when considering the path storms usually take. Best chances for flooding are the bays on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 North shore of the island by me is very difficult to flood. The topography is not really conducive for piling water efficiently when considering the path storms usually take. Best chances for flooding are the bays on the south shore. Still man, you have seen epic rains before, but have you even seen tropical storm/hurricane landfalling induced tornados and/or water spouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That bay need strong northerly winds to flood. I guess, on the backside of this, we can see stronger winds from a northerly direction. The way the euro depicts the storm, the western south shore of LI/Brooklyn and all of SI, will have the strongest push of surge waters. The way the EURO depicts it, half of NYC's geographic area will be under water. This really has the potential to be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The way the EURO depicts it, half of NYC's geographic area will be under water. This really has the potential to be catastrophic. This area has a really tough time flooding in a widestead fashion. The areas that could potentially flood are the marsh areas on the south shore and the communities that were hastily built on them, parts of coastal eastern Staten Island, and part of lower Manhattan/ FDR area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Few things are more humbling than watching these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This area has a really tough time flooding in a widestead fashion. The areas that could potentially flood are the marsh areas on the south shore and the communities that were hastily built on them, parts of coastal eastern Staten Island, and part of lower Manhattan/ FDR area. Howard Beach area and the entire Belt Parkway area, would flood pretty badly with that euro scenario. As would Rockaways, Atlantic and Long Beach areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pinhole eye, I bet we have RI and a cat 4 at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pinhole eye, I bet we have RI and a cat 4 at 5pm It's not a pinhole eye, it's just contracting and filling in with clouds as a precursor to the ERC impending. No changes or slight weakening at 5 if anything, although I do still like 125 kts as a peak by 11 or 5 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's not a pinhole eye, it's just contracting and filling in with clouds as a precursor to the ERC impending. No changes or slight weakening at 5 if anything, although I do still like 125 kts as a peak by 11 or 5 tomorrow. Yeah agreed. You can see the pre-erc wobbling near and around the eye on the visible loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 John, Do you have any thoughts on the latest EURO and GFS.. What is your gut feeling as to how this is going to play out.. Few things are more humbling than watching these storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This is a great website to look at the individual tracks, ensembles, biases, trends, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 John, Do you have any thoughts on the latest EURO and GFS.. What is your gut feeling as to how this is going to play out.. My favored track for a few days has been a Hatteras scraper to something just east of Long Island. I think the highest probability of landfall is over Southeast Southern New England...although I'm not sure it will be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Howard Beach area and the entire Belt Parkway area, would flood pretty badly with that euro scenario. As would Rockaways, Atlantic and Long Beach areas. We would almost definitely have to be evacuated. Water would likely be several feet or deeper all across town in this kind of scenario and track. The only worse track I can think of is one that heads due north and not over land for any length of time. The real danger is if water gets into the tunnels and subways, and obviously into the extremely heavily populated areas in Brooklyn and Manhattan. This is a massive storm that will pile tons of water up. It's the kind of situation where a cat 1 can pack a 10+ foot storm surge in places. That would be devastating. But this is just one model, 3-4 days out from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah agreed. You can see the pre-erc wobbling near and around the eye on the visible loop. I based the increase in intensity on dropsone data. There is more to this than the satalite, yes a ERC is coming, but perhaps not quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I based the increase in intensity on dropsone data. There is more to this than the satalite, yes a ERC is coming, but perhaps not quite yet. It's the only thing that would explain the recent structural changes, unless the storm is simply weakening suddenly, which I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro ens pretty far west. Mean up through li to ct/ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18z NAM further west compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 arghh, mean to post this in this thread, not the main one. Just comparing the last 2 euro runs..on the 12z run the trough looks faster and not as sharp, allowing irene to hug the coast more and actually tick NNW once the atlantic ridge tries to build in its nose westward.. This is a very dangerous and fragile setup. Im curious to see what the GFS does in its next few runs, trends are key (epecially at 500mb).. I'd place my bets on a central-eastern LI landfall right now as a category 1 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 arghh, mean to post this in this thread, not the main one. Just comparing the last 2 euro runs..on the 12z run the trough looks faster and not as sharp, allowing irene to hug the coast more and actually tick NNW once the atlantic ridge tries to build in its nose westward.. This is a very dangerous and fragile setup. Im curious to see what the GFS does in its next few runs, trends are key (epecially at 500mb).. I'd place my bets on a central-eastern LI landfall right now as a category 1 hurricane I am guessing a Riverhead Long Island land fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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