Paweatherguy1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Tremendous winds for Southern Jersey at hour 99: Wow...what a monster...Dover, Wilmington, Atlantic City, Norfolk, OBX, Philly, all of NJ and the NYC Metro area just get destroyed on this run. This isn't something you see every day...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The uppel level features in the west and near canada are vital for Irene's path, it seems like they're weakening, allowing irene to not go as far east. yes, and what that is doing is allowing the atlantic ridge to build back west and stronger and hold the northern trajectory of the storm much, much tighter.. if you look at the 500 mb progs, look at how the height fields over the atlantic build dramatically to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 that is worst case scenario. the amount of water that would pile up would be devastating for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Except that its over land when it comes up to NYC as it makes landfall at the southern most part of NJ. IThe surge could be an issue as well as some weak tornados but not sure about the winds once it ges up here because of the fact its over land while it climbs NJ. I know they are out there, but where can you find maps on what sort of surge a cat 1 or cat 2 cane could produce in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 At hour 102, hurricane force winds up past AC. Will post the 108 and 111 maps when out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wow...what a monster...Dover, Wilmington, Atlantic City, Norfolk, OBX, Philly, all of NJ and the NYC Metro area just get destroyed on this run. This isn't something you see every day...... God that Euro track is scary...look at the windfield completely to the NE of center...nyc, LI would be in big trouble becase that is where the winds would be, not on the western side. And as somebody mentioned earlier, those winds surging into long island would be coming off the water...unlike the western side of the storm...also, carl parker on TWC isnt bad, he mentions the models as they come in. He also mentioned the tornado threat for long island...this is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 SJ will take a big beating if this is correct. It shifted west from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know they are out there, but where can you find maps on what sort of surge a cat 1 or cat 2 cane could produce in NYC? i cant find it now, ill look for it, but there is a map showing what areas of the south shore would be under water during the different cats...i think its on the FEMA website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Keep in mind that right now this is the only global and as far as I know only reliable model showing this type of solution. The gfs is also trending west and a couple of the reliable tropical models also had a west solution. They are all modeling that kicker to weaken now. This reminds me of boxing day modeling machinations-- all we need now is a model assimilation "error" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the early 18z runs. Not like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know they are out there, but where can you find maps on what sort of surge a cat 1 or cat 2 cane could produce in NYC? Threw this in the banter thread, but here ya go: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf NJ: http://www.state.nj.us/njoem/plan/evacuation-routes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the early 18z runs. Not like the euro Looks like they trended west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The gfs is also trending west and a couple of the reliable tropical models also had a west solution. They are all modeling that kicker to weaken now. This reminds me of boxing day modeling machinations-- all we need now is a model assimilation "error" LOL LOL I was just about to say it feels like it's December 24th right now, not Aug 24th. Technically, we can say that the Euro is a 'HECS' haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the early 18z runs. Not like the euro That is well west of 12z. By a good amount. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the early 18z runs. Not like the euro 18z is run off of 12z data.... just like in the winter. 0z runs tonight will be key. 6z/18z runs not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not to mention that if the storm does come on shore in NJ or hugs the coast it be moving northward at a pretty quick pace so winds would still make it up to NYC before major weakening took place...maybe not hurricane force but certainly high end TS winds with higher gusts. Again this is assuming this hit exactly as the Euro shows which at this stage would seem unlikely, though certainly a viable option God that Euro track is scary...look at the windfield completely to the NE of center...nyc, LI would be in big trouble becase that is where the winds would be, not on the western side. And as somebody mentioned earlier, those winds surging into long island would be coming off the water...unlike the western side of the storm...also, carl parker on TWC isnt bad, he mentions the models as they come in. He also mentioned the tornado threat for long island...this is concerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like they trended west some. yes, i would agree with that. If you take the eastern and wester outliers out, you get the storm pretty much into or just right of nyc. Even if it did go just to the right you are still looking at hours of substantial waves and water influx into NYC itself before a wind shiftt. Also, Western LI sound would have serious serious serious problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z euro breaks down after hour 108. It has hurricane force winds to mid Coastal Jersey and then storm rapidly loses strength and NYC and LI never get past weak Tropical storm winds. And also, very little rain for NYC and LI. Euro is a big hit for Southern to mid Coastal Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the early 18z runs. Not like the euro A shift west for many. This track would still yield a lot of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not to mention that if the storm does come on shore in NJ or hugs the coast it be moving northward at a pretty quick pace so winds would still make it up to NYC before major weakening took place...maybe not hurricane force but certainly high end TS winds with higher gusts. Again this is assuming this hit exactly as the Euro shows which at this stage would seem unlikely, though certainly a viable option If the Euro is correct, NYC and vicinity would almost definitely experience hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Consensus from 12z to 18z on the dynamic models appears at least 50-60 miles west at 18z. Maybe even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z euro breaks down after hour 108. It has hurricane force winds to mid Coastal Jersey and then storm rapidly loses strength and NYC and LI never get past weak Tropical storm winds. And also, very little rain for NYC and LI. Euro is a big hit for Southern to mid Coastal Jersey. If the Euro is correct, NYC and vicinity would almost definitely experience hurricane force gusts. The model data has the winds rapidly deteriorating and only tropical force winds into NYC and LI. Hurricane force winds are contained to Southern Jersey and just past Atlantic City. Regardless, a slight shift east of the 12z euro, would bring hurricane force winds to many more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not according to what ag3 just posted, which I don't necessarily buy. Just don't see it weakening that much over that short a distance If the Euro is correct, NYC and vicinity would almost definitely experience hurricane force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Right, if it doesn't make landfall but instead hugs the coast it would be more similar to Gloria only shifted 50 miles to the west. Would be worst case for NYC and areas just to the east. The model data has the winds rapidly deteriorating and only tropical force winds into NYC and LI. Hurricane force winds are contained to Southern Jersey and just past Atlantic City. Regardless, a slight shift east of the 12z euro, would bring hurricane to more people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What's the qpf output for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have no idea why someone thinks a track like the 12z Euro shows would not be a big rain maker, especially just to the NW of the center, which to be honest, is alot more prone to river flooding than points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As I said before, if this, or something just to the right of this were to happen, winds are going to be the LAST thing on people's minds. You are essentially looking at 3 high tide cyles with high astronomical tides and a storm which has been gathering surge and waves for days and days. All the LI boys, the city boys and the western sound boys are gonna be in huge trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yes, i would agree with that. If you take the eastern and wester outliers out, you get the storm pretty much into or just right of nyc. Even if it did go just to the right you are still looking at hours of substantial waves and water influx into NYC itself before a wind shiftt. Also, Western LI sound would have serious serious serious problems. I wouldn't say that. Most of those 18z tropical models take it close to eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not according to what ag3 just posted, which I don't necessarily buy. Just don't see it weakening that much over that short a distance Hour 105: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hour 108. After 108, winds break down to well below TS criteria: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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