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Hurricane Irene


earthlight

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I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938?

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I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938?

I would love someone to produce some kind of computer sim that accurately models our coastline and then superimpose the track of that storm on top of that-- I think we could learn some things about what is possible. The NYC coastline has so many nooks and crannies that I think surge well above and beyond storm intensity progs is possible-- similar to some areas of the Gulf Coast.

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I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938?

Do you really think anything like that is possible this time?

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I would love someone to produce some kind of computer sim that accurately models our coastline and then superimpose the track of that storm on top of that-- I think we could learn some things about what is possible. The NYC coastline has so many nooks and crannies that I think surge well above and beyond storm intensity progs is possible-- similar to some areas of the Gulf Coast.

Excellent post alex, while the northern nj coast and western long island sound are so vulnerable to an east or ne wind, the nyc proper out east to long island are extremely vulnerable to a s or se wind, a scenario which takes irene north and stall it south of sne then heads wnw just sw of the nyc area is still on the table, any slight ridging to the ne has to be taken seriously even as unusual and unlikely as it maybe.

Its not the wind or rain, its the water that makes nyc so vulnerable.

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I think coastal geography must have played a role in the 1821 storm surge heights. That said, it's tough to imagine that the surge from a rare SE-NW tracking storm (think Isabel 2003, but landfalling just west of NYC instead of in NC) wouldn't be significantly higher yet. New York Harbor absolutely acts as a funnel and can amplify storm surges.

Nor'easters do show how susceptible the greater New York Bight area can be to storm surges. December '92 is the best example, and, more recently, April '07 and March '10 as well. I suppose the key for a tropical system to produce big surges would be a track straight over (like 1821) or just to the west, even if it's a standard recurving system and not that rare SE-NW mover. Storms like Donna, Belle, and Gloria tracking just east of the city certainly could have produced more surge had they been over or west of the city.

One interesting exception is the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane in NJ, where localized barrier island areas were hit by a very significant surge that caused major damage. The storm tracked just east of NJ, and I'm not even sure if the western eyewall crossed the coastline - though, based on accounts, it seems like it must have. So a big surge can even come on the west side of a TC in this area, rare as it probably is.

Of course, whether or not Irene even impacts the area won't be clear for days - but history is always important.

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Yes I was alluding to 1821...but that is an extremely low probability scenario that would come to pass only if Irene were to attain/maintain Cat 3/4 intensity and then thread the needle so to speak, by moving rapidly right along the immediate coast from eastern NC to Cape May NJ to NYC.

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Excellent post alex, while the northern nj coast and western long island sound are so vulnerable to an east or ne wind, the nyc proper out east to long island are extremely vulnerable to a s or se wind, a scenario which takes irene north and stall it south of sne then heads wnw just sw of the nyc area is still on the table, any slight ridging to the ne has to be taken seriously even as unusual and unlikely as it maybe.

Its not the wind or rain, its the water that makes nyc so vulnerable.

0z gfs shows something comparable, with HP to the north, not yet sure but almost a worst case scenario for the nyc metro, likely?? who knows, but never say never, that amount of water being pushed up into nyc would be impressive.

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Yes I was alluding to 1821...but that is an extremely low probability scenario that would come to pass only if Irene were to attain/maintain Cat 3/4 intensity and then thread the needle so to speak, by moving rapidly right along the immediate coast from eastern NC to Cape May NJ to NYC.

Of course it's extremely low probability! That's why it hasn't happened since 1821, but the fact that a pro met even brought it up is noteworthy!

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It could be. I was straining my eyes just trying to count those isobars. They should really only contour them every 4 mb.

I was too and I had to count like 4 times to make sure-- there's 10 circles inside the 992 mb labeled isobar (I think.)

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Where did that graphic come from? Its last fact is wrong...a Cat 1 hurricane struck NYC dead on in 1893 and wiped out a mile-long barrier island known as Hog Island that sat just south of the Rockaways.

Can't you tell by the graphics? It's obviously an AccuWeather graphic!

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