billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll give one clue...it pre-dates the HURDAT database. 1821 NYC Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm thinking that if this system does happen to slow down just off the coast, one of the factors that needs to be taken into consideration is upwelling of relatively cooler water and perhaps putting a damper on the potential for further intensification.. I guess that remains to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938? I would love someone to produce some kind of computer sim that accurately models our coastline and then superimpose the track of that storm on top of that-- I think we could learn some things about what is possible. The NYC coastline has so many nooks and crannies that I think surge well above and beyond storm intensity progs is possible-- similar to some areas of the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I've been suspicious of the 1821 storm intensity as it crossed NYC, but am also wondering how to get a 13' storm surge all the way up to Canal St in Manhattan at low tide, or 20+' in spots along the NJ coast? Maybe some ideal resonance between storm motion and wave group velocity that built seas/surge to ridiculous heights as likely occurred in 1938? Do you really think anything like that is possible this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would love someone to produce some kind of computer sim that accurately models our coastline and then superimpose the track of that storm on top of that-- I think we could learn some things about what is possible. The NYC coastline has so many nooks and crannies that I think surge well above and beyond storm intensity progs is possible-- similar to some areas of the Gulf Coast. Excellent post alex, while the northern nj coast and western long island sound are so vulnerable to an east or ne wind, the nyc proper out east to long island are extremely vulnerable to a s or se wind, a scenario which takes irene north and stall it south of sne then heads wnw just sw of the nyc area is still on the table, any slight ridging to the ne has to be taken seriously even as unusual and unlikely as it maybe. Its not the wind or rain, its the water that makes nyc so vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think coastal geography must have played a role in the 1821 storm surge heights. That said, it's tough to imagine that the surge from a rare SE-NW tracking storm (think Isabel 2003, but landfalling just west of NYC instead of in NC) wouldn't be significantly higher yet. New York Harbor absolutely acts as a funnel and can amplify storm surges. Nor'easters do show how susceptible the greater New York Bight area can be to storm surges. December '92 is the best example, and, more recently, April '07 and March '10 as well. I suppose the key for a tropical system to produce big surges would be a track straight over (like 1821) or just to the west, even if it's a standard recurving system and not that rare SE-NW mover. Storms like Donna, Belle, and Gloria tracking just east of the city certainly could have produced more surge had they been over or west of the city. One interesting exception is the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane in NJ, where localized barrier island areas were hit by a very significant surge that caused major damage. The storm tracked just east of NJ, and I'm not even sure if the western eyewall crossed the coastline - though, based on accounts, it seems like it must have. So a big surge can even come on the west side of a TC in this area, rare as it probably is. Of course, whether or not Irene even impacts the area won't be clear for days - but history is always important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes I was alluding to 1821...but that is an extremely low probability scenario that would come to pass only if Irene were to attain/maintain Cat 3/4 intensity and then thread the needle so to speak, by moving rapidly right along the immediate coast from eastern NC to Cape May NJ to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Excellent post alex, while the northern nj coast and western long island sound are so vulnerable to an east or ne wind, the nyc proper out east to long island are extremely vulnerable to a s or se wind, a scenario which takes irene north and stall it south of sne then heads wnw just sw of the nyc area is still on the table, any slight ridging to the ne has to be taken seriously even as unusual and unlikely as it maybe. Its not the wind or rain, its the water that makes nyc so vulnerable. 0z gfs shows something comparable, with HP to the north, not yet sure but almost a worst case scenario for the nyc metro, likely?? who knows, but never say never, that amount of water being pushed up into nyc would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 storm passes just east of nyc, however tons of water thrown into ny harbor well ahead on sse winds before passage, entertaining at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes I was alluding to 1821...but that is an extremely low probability scenario that would come to pass only if Irene were to attain/maintain Cat 3/4 intensity and then thread the needle so to speak, by moving rapidly right along the immediate coast from eastern NC to Cape May NJ to NYC. Of course it's extremely low probability! That's why it hasn't happened since 1821, but the fact that a pro met even brought it up is noteworthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 storm passes just east of nyc, however tons of water thrown into ny harbor well ahead on sse winds before passage, entertaining at the least. and slow movement of storm is noteworthy-- it means more piling up of water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS is sub 980 with second landfall on eastern LI, we get raked with a track from about ACY to eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 00z GFS is a 992 with second landfall on eastern LI, we get raked with a track from about ACY to eastern LI thats sub 976 not 992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What's troubling me tonight is why quite a few models have initialized this system inland over Hispanolia and what downstream affects its having on the eventual forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 thats sub 976 not 992 Trying to count the isobars, it looks like 977. The 992 is the blue line, it sure is a lot lower than 992! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 thats sub 976 not 992 LOL that actually made me laugh, it would have to have the largest eye ever for it to be 992 (totally ignoring all the isobars inside that marker.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Each isobar is 2 mb, the 992 label is on the blue isobar. Count the isobars to the center of the storm and subtract 2 mb for each isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 that was my mistake, I read the graphic wrong time for bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Trying to count the isobars, it looks like 977. The 992 is the blue line, it sure is a lot lower than 992! The tightest circle looks like it could be 972 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 count the isobars.. in your graphic they seem to stand for 2mb; i counter 13 lines minus the 1000mb line so that would correspond to around 976mb upon landfall--per the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The tightest circle looks like it could be 972 mb It could be. I was straining my eyes just trying to count those isobars. They should really only contour them every 4 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It could be. I was straining my eyes just trying to count those isobars. They should really only contour them every 4 mb. I was too and I had to count like 4 times to make sure-- there's 10 circles inside the 992 mb labeled isobar (I think.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I was too and I had to count like 4 times to make sure-- there's 10 circles inside the 992 mb labeled isobar (I think.) I'm not going to bother counting again. I don't want to get a headache before bed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 verdict is 966mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 verdict is 966mb Isn't Obama vacationing at Martha's Vineyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Isn't Obama vacationing at Martha's Vineyard? Probably. He's always vacationing somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Where did that graphic come from? Its last fact is wrong...a Cat 1 hurricane struck NYC dead on in 1893 and wiped out a mile-long barrier island known as Hog Island that sat just south of the Rockaways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Where did that graphic come from? Its last fact is wrong...a Cat 1 hurricane struck NYC dead on in 1893 and wiped out a mile-long barrier island known as Hog Island that sat just south of the Rockaways. Can't you tell by the graphics? It's obviously an AccuWeather graphic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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