NorthShoreWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hurricane force gusts on long island..same track as Bob but a larger wind field Bob had 75mph gusts at least as far west as ISP. It was barely a zephyr in NW Nassau that day, but most of Suffolk caught a pretty good blow. As you mentioned, Bob was more compact than this is likely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 With the storm approaching and seemingly becoming a threat to bring at least eastern portions of our area some very heavy rain and potentially wind, this will be the last warning regarding this thread staying on topic. This topic is meant to be a serious discussion on the storm itself and the threat it poses to our area. Posts regarding winter storm comparisons, this storm is a bust, this storm is going to be a mega historical storm, etc will be deleted. Repeat offenders will be banned until the storm has passed. I hate that it has to come down to this, and I have tried to be as lenient as possible especially in this forum, but the thread has spun off in a million different directions even after I started this thread specifically to be on topic. Thanks in advance for making it easier on me and the rest of the staff guys. It is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 i was reading somewhere earlier in the thread that MOST hurricanes have a tendency to go east of the projected track as the storm moved on? can anyone clarify the truth to that. im trying to learn about the typical behavior in the tracks of tropical cyclones and what this storm is likely to do? if this doesnt make any sense let me know i dont wanna sound stupid either just trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how are the models coming up with such low pressures? Waters cannot be warm enough north of NC to sustain that....what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 shouldnt the Euro been out by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how are the models coming up with such low pressures? Waters cannot be warm enough north of NC to sustain that....what am I missing? water temps up here near fire island are around 75 not the warmest but its not too terriby cool i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how are the models coming up with such low pressures? Waters cannot be warm enough north of NC to sustain that....what am I missing? They are probably overdone, BUT water temperature is not the only factor in determining strength, and some of the more aggressive models are forecasting a really healthy upper level environment to maintain strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Water that can sustain tropical systems extend quite a bit north, up to 100 miles south of Long Island as Tip mentioned yesterday. Unless atmospheric conditions don't support the system or there is interaction with land, Irene should be able to maintain a lot of her strength up to a pretty decent latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how are the models coming up with such low pressures? Waters cannot be warm enough north of NC to sustain that....what am I missing? Even while Earl was weakening ,he was still able to cross 40N with 958 mb. 39 40.00 -69.70 09/04/03Z 60 958 TROPICAL STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 shouldnt the Euro been out by now? Out to 90.. Looks like it is maintaining a more west solution, but need to wait a few more frames to see for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The euro is definitely west of 0z looks like it's heading north near Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 According to the SNE thread, they said at 102, it is making landfall in Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Haven't chimed in here yet..but just looked at the Euro coming in. Definitely west at 96...center appears to be over southern Delaware. In Delaware Bay at 102...crazy Euro is west. This will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro has landfall southern tip of Jersey, its way left of last night. Looks like 12z Euro yesterday. Would destroy Atlantic City with surge and winds if this were to happen. It then goes up I-95 in Jersey straight into NYC over land. Very little rain to right of center but waves and surge would be tremendous. Also, tornado threat here with the squalls on the right side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 According to the SNE thread, they said at 102, it is making landfall in Cape May. That would be correct - Direct hit on Cape May lol, At 108 it passes directly over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Euro smashes right into NJ, this Is far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That would be correct - Direct hit on Cape May lol, At 108 it passes directly over NYC strength at 108? maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is that enough of a trend for you guys? lol.... Cat 3 going into Cape May? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Keep in mind that right now this is the only global and as far as I know only reliable model showing this type of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 strength at 108? maps? Can't post maps of the Euro unfortunately, but it quickly loses intensity after the Cape May landfall obviously. Pressure is 976 as it passes over NYC, vs. 960 when it makes landfall in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Is that enough of a trend for you guys? lol.... Cat 3 going into Cape May? Wow And NYC taking the full brunt of the Eastern side of the storm. Wind maps off wundermap will be interesting. I'll post them when available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah I mean seriously, the new Euro is probably too far west, but not by much, we're starting to get into the range where verification scores are very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Very intresting devolpment..the best model as an outliner..well i guess anywhere from the city to Montauk should be ready.Again Euro is in it's 3-4 day range,so it could be right..or in this case left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 And NYC taking the full brunt of the Eastern side of the storm. Wind maps off wundermap will be interesting. I'll post them when available. Except that its over land when it comes up to NYC as it makes landfall at the southern most part of NJ. IThe surge could be an issue as well as some weak tornados but not sure about the winds once it ges up here because of the fact its over land while it climbs NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The uppel level features in the west and near canada are vital for Irene's path, it seems like they're weakening, allowing irene to not go as far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah I mean seriously, the new Euro is probably too far west, but not by much, we're starting to get into the range where verification scores are very high. That's a very scary scenario...I would think that if it is a Cat 3 at Cape May, it still will maintain at least Cat 1 strenght up into the NYC area....Possibly a worst case scenario with hours and hours of South East winds piling water into NY harbor...I would think that a lot of lower manhattan would be flooded by that scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Keep in mind that right now this is the only global and as far as I know only reliable model showing this type of solution. It shifted west along with the GGEM, UKMET, NOAGPS and GFS, thats a pretty good concenus, and the Euro usually has the best verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That's a very scary scenario...I would think that if it is a Cat 3 at Cape May, it still will maintain at least Cat 1 strenght up into the NYC area....Possibly a worst case scenario with hours and hours of South East winds piling water into NY harbor...I would think that a lot of lower manhattan would be flooded by that scenario... If this were to happen this is pretty much a worst case WATER SURGE/WAVE scenario for the city. The rainfall and winds would not even be a close second with that amount of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Oh wow, any maps from the Euro? The upper level features are beginning to show what they can do to Irene's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Tremendous winds for Southern Jersey at hour 99: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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