bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hurricane force gusts on long island..same track as Bob but a larger wind field Impressive 3hr pressure rises showing up on this run right behind Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GGEM also shifted west although the model run is weird wrt the motion http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not overly impressive, 2 to 3" maybe a bit higher on the shore Do you know what rainfall amounts were like in NJ as a result of Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 main forum mets are saying that the troughing on the 00z GFS was likely overdone, and this was a good correction by about 4-8mb. hr 93, just about everyone is being crushed, by the way, good front end rains of over an inch while the storm is still well SW of OBX ? The storm is off the delmarva there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GGEM has a 978 low east of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Do you know what rainfall amounts were like in NJ as a result of Bob? 2 to 4 inches if my memory serves me right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ? The storm is off the delmarva there. your not interperting my post right, we get good front end rains on the previous frames, the image is as the storm is approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yes I would think the same thing. Watches go up Friday and warnings/advisories Saturday (or watches dropped as necessary) I meant like timing, is it like winter storms watch 48hrs warning 24 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Watch criteria is 48hrs Warning criteria is 24hrs Keep in mind, thats for "Conditions expected" so if there is a low possability of TS conditions, they may stick with a watch until the situation is nailed down. The last thing they want to do is scare people, or cause un warranted hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The models have shifted a little to the west but really not that much. Tonight's runs will be IMO a huge indicator as to where we might be going. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GGEM appears well east of the GFS going off the Canadian site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GGEM appears well east of the GFS going off the Canadian site. In sne thread they are saying it came west.....into li then ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 In sne thread they are saying it came west.....into li then ri Here are the B & W maps. Center of the low appears east of LI with even the bulk of the rain missing NYC and most of Jersey. Need to see ewall maps to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I meant like timing, is it like winter storms watch 48hrs warning 24 etc This stuff belongs in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Here are the B & W maps. Center low appears east of LI. Need to see ewall maps to verify. Im on my phone so can't see. Messanger posted the bw map there also.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Im on my phone so can't see. Messanger posted the bw map there also.... Clarification. I never said it was east of 0z GGEM. Im saying its east of the 12z GFS, which I believe it is, judging by those crappy Canadian graphics. Ewall will have it in 20 minutes to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z UKIE appears west. Tough to tell off the French site but it looks like it brings the center near or through LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This storm is quickly looking like a similar scenario to hurricane bob strength wise and landfall wise.. If the shifts to the west continue then Gloria, as an analog will appear to be the best comparison.. The bottom line is that no 2 storms are alike.. If this storm were to come into long island west of the nassau/suffolk border, it's going to be devastating.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lastest HWRF has a 932 low on eastern LI. That is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GFS brings 74+ MPH sustained winds very close to Hamptons and east area of LI and 50-74mph sustained winds for much of Suffolk County, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd think those winds are knots, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lastest HWRF has a 932 low on eastern LI. That is insane. 1938 stength?? Where on the east end?? Montauk or further west, like riverhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd think those winds are knots, no? Not sure. I'm assuming mph. It has these exact winds for 6 hours straight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12Z UKMET Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938 stength?? Where on the east end?? Montauk or further west, like riverhead? I got this image from the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GFS brings 74+ MPH sustained winds very close to Hamptons and east area of LI and 50-74mph sustained winds for much of Suffolk County, LI. gust to hurricane force on most of the Island..get your candles and flashlights ready..with the heavy rain will bring down many trees if the 12 z GFS is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GGEM off ewall. A little east of GFS but not as bad as it looked off the Canadian site.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So basically this has the potential to be very bad for the city, it seems. With a strike on eastern LI I think the potential could be there for hurricane force gusts in the city proper (assuming it landfalls as a 105ish mph storm), whereas gusts up to 90 or so could be expected if landfall is a bit further west. Worst-case could involve very significant flooding of large portions of Brooklyn and Queens as well as lower Manhattan... even a graze could result in many areas going under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GFS text soundings show tropical storm force winds with a lot of rain for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 12z GGEM off ewall. A little east of GFS but not as bad as it looked off the Canadian site.: block Island just like Bob..but will it act like Bob?..seems like the windfield is more expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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