Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not really focusing on its track, I'm more interested in the strenght and position of the upper air features in question, because that is ultimatly what is going to drive the cyclone. The combination of the upper air westerlies and where the strength and position of the upper air features is what working against the storm giving our any direct hit and making more likely a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 so 100 mph right into w long island? niiiiice http://www.nynjpawea...urricane-irene/ Come on Kush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 my point and click Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night: Rain and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy and very windy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The combination of the upper air westerlies and where the strength and position of the upper air features is what working against the storm giving our any direct hit and making more likely a fish storm. I didn't say the developments that the NAM were showing were positive, I was simply stating why I was even considering anything the NAM has for a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 so 100 mph right into w long island? niiiiice http://www.nynjpawea...urricane-irene/ What a joke. I have no idea what the final track will be obviously, but there is no way Irene is a 135mph storm by 11pm on Saturday. Is he kidding? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eastward shift, cut the QPF amounts over eastern NJ by about a 1/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 look at all that spread still, CAUTION is the word of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 so 100 mph right into w long island? niiiiice http://www.nynjpawea...urricane-irene/ Rather bullish, and way west of the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Keep in mind that even if this misses east by a good bit, the rain will spread quite far to the NW. Even if the winds aren't ridiculous, the impact from 6 or more inches of rain is quite severe too. The threat is greatest along the coast but even the last 2 GFS runs spread the heavy rain shield well into NJ/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I see nothing but an eastward trend and days ago it was suppose strike FL, then SC and NC. LI last night, now brushing the cape, with this eastward trending not stopping I won't be surprise if this even goes further east than Earl and Edward and go SE of LI probably 300 to 400 miles and go completely out to sea. I am talking about probably similar track to Bill in 2009 with just rough seasons and beach erosion with most of the rain staying off shore as well. Models are in great agreement for this time length and haven't lurched that much in the last 2 days. 50-100 miles isn't a huge change at this far out. There's also no reason why this will bend way east like a Bill or Earl unless a trough/kicker comes in way stronger than modeled now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I see nothing but an eastward trend and days ago it was suppose strike FL, then SC and NC. LI last night, now brushing the cape, with this eastward trending not stopping I won't be surprise if this even goes further east than Earl and Edward and go SE of LI probably 300 to 400 miles and go completely out to sea. I am talking about probably similar track to Bill in 2009 with just rough seasons and beach erosion with most of the rain staying off shore as well. I've seen some of your posts over the past several days and all I can say is If the models suddenly shift west, you will jump on that bandwagon as well. Why? Because you may be able to read a model, in general terms, but you have no clue as to how the model arrived at its respective solution. Read more, post less, I'm guilty of it myself at times, but I've learned alot just by reading what red taggers post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scootmandu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The wording of the forecast posted for SW Suffolk County on Long Island is curious, as posted on wunderground. After mentioning that 'tropical storm conditions are possible' for both Saturday night and Sunday, it has this for Sunday night: "Rain likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Hurricane force winds with lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent." http://classic.wunde...ast?query=11703 update: The new noon forecast changed the wording for Sunday night to 'tropical storm conditions are possible' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Today's 12z runs are huge, and the 00z even bigger, as the upper air pattern is going to be well sampled, if there is going to be a significant shift either way, it likely will occur in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Initial thoughts on the 12z GFS, weaker with the trough over Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through hr 27, Irene looks quite a bit west, I'm likeing the looks of this run early on The differences over SE Canada with regards to the amplification of the trough are big, much less amplified this run. Stil too early to tell what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Through hr 27, Irene looks quite a bit west, I'm likeing the looks of this run early on The differences over SE Canada with regards to the amplification of the trough are big, much less amplified this run. Stil too early to tell what it means. Can't you just wait till we have an idea of where the run is actually going, then post a coherent, condensed discussion on it? These hour-to-hour posts can be misleading I find (the NAM's "west west west" trend didn't turn out so well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can't you just wait till we have an idea of where the run is actually going, then post a coherent, condensed discussion on it? These hour-to-hour posts can be misleading I find (the NAM's "west west west" trend didn't turn out so well). The differences early on this run are HUGE and if you don't believe me, they are saying the same thing on the main forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 well.. the ridging in the atlantic seems to be built back westward a bit and the trough across Canada is not quite as far dug so south so the overall wind field of westerlies across the northeast became a bit lighter... the speed of the system is every so slightly slower and looks a tad west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The area is under severe flooding at hour 96, It is more west than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 well.. the ridging in the atlantic seems to be built back westward a bit and the trough across Canada is not quite as far dug so south so the overall wind field of westerlies across the northeast became a bit lighter... the speed of the system is every so slightly slower and looks a tad west so far. Looks to me like it jogs to the west a little at 78 hours then back to the east at 84. Unless the trough to the west sharpens quickly and pulls this due northward I think this is an eastern New Englander. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 main forum mets are saying that the troughing on the 00z GFS was likely overdone, and this was a good correction by about 4-8mb. hr 93, just about everyone is being crushed, by the way, good front end rains of over an inch while the storm is still well SW of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 958 just barely east of LI . Wow. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like it goes right over far eastern LI, and by hr 108 its out of here, but not before dumping 5-10"+ area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 significant changes this run which go beyond my amateur ability to understand, and when you combine this with some recent red tag posts in the main forum, this may kick west even futher on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks to me like it jogs to the west a little at 78 hours then back to the east at 84. Unless the trough to the west sharpens quickly and pulls this due northward I think this is an eastern New Englander. WX/PT yea.. it's subtleties all around that will make the difference... it definitely seemed like the trof over Canada intially had less influence because I could see the 500 mb wind pattern was probably a good 10-20 knots lighter for a period of time, so it might have been still more steered by the weakness in the mid level ridge, but I agree, the wavelength of the trof is fairly open so it predominantly has a SW flow as opposed to a southerly flow.. it'll be interesting what happens with the ridge over the Atlantic though.. I did the see the height fields build back rather significantly over the previous run.. but again.. this is one model comparison.. there are so many other models to consider.. it really is going to be impossible to forecast until pretty much game time.. problem is that 50-100 miles makes a world of difference for someone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The NOAGPS is shifting westward, was OTS, now over Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This kind of a track with saturated soil would bring many trees down across Long Island when stronger back edge winds mix down behind Irene as the winds shift to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How about the 5boroughs A lot of rain and some gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How about the 5boroughs It all depends on the actual track.The exact track is still speculative this early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This kind of a track with saturated soil would bring many trees down across Long Island when stronger back edge winds mix down behind Irene as the winds shift to NW. Hurricane force gusts on long island..same track as Bob but a larger wind field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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