Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 GGEM shifted way east and has Irene centered close to or just south of Nantucket Sunday 12Z. But I would not put much weight into GGEM for this storm at this time. It handles tropical systems poorly until they get much further north. WX/PT Some reason because what has happen the last 20 years I have strange feeling the east solutions will pan out more but who knows? If I see the western solution with a strong storm on Friday than I will see this be real concern flooding rains and strong winds will be a player. There is just this slight chance this storm could be in between Floyd and Glory. With the GFS and GGEM shifting east I having feeling that this could like I said before another 96 Edward once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldnt really worry about this storm right now. Seriously, it was forecast by NHC to be going over the DR a few day ago and it went right. At the same time, the extended forecast had it over FL in the long range. Look at how far it is to the right of FL now? This thing is trending right and I see no reason why that trend wont cont as it moves N twds our area. The right front quad is where the action is, I see MAYBE only E LI getting into that action, otherwise, just some heavy rain for a 6 hr period, then poof it's gone. Typical trend to the E. I recall when I was forecasting Charlie when I worked at NBC4 back in the day as a wx producer and all the models had it hitting the area. We had a tropical storm warning for the city and we ran crawls on the TV all for nothing. If the models have any kind of E trend...it is death. U want a due N trend, and that is not the deal here. I know the standard error in the NHC track at 5 days is some 250 miles, and that will be in play here. I see this sucker trending E with time so it's a glancing blow to the area, heavy rain yea, but not much else. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I wouldnt really worry about this storm right now. Seriously, it was forecast by NHC to be going over the DR a few day ago and it went right. At the same time, the extended forecast had it over FL in the long range. Look at how far it is to the right of FL now? This thing is trending right and I see no reason why that trend wont cont as it moves N twds our area. The right front quad is where the action is, I see MAYBE only E LI getting into that action, otherwise, just some heavy rain for a 6 hr period, then poof it's gone. Typical trend to the E. I recall when I was forecasting Charlie when I worked at NBC4 back in the day as a wx producer and all the models had it hitting the area. We had a tropical storm warning for the city and we ran crawls on the TV all for nothing. If the models have any kind of E trend...it is death. U want a due N trend, and that is not the deal here. I know the standard error in the NHC track at 5 days is some 250 miles, and that will be in play here. I see this sucker trending E with time so it's a glancing blow to the area, heavy rain yea, but not much else. Just my 2 cents. I still feel that its an eastern LI landfall or near miss at best right now. The worse case scenario IMO now is something similar to Bob but I'm not sure Irene will be as strong as Bob was upon reaching 40-42N....there is going to have to be some sort of major intensification soon. Even if it does, the next eyewall cycle likely would begin as its beginning to blast north and it could undergo extensive weakening off the NC/SC coasts before it even reaches cooler waters. I'm still telling most people I know outside of those in SE MA and eastern Suffolk county that I'm not too worried, as long as you're on the west side of these things you usually can get away with just minimal damage though that does not mean a few trees won't wind up on houses west of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still feel that its an eastern LI landfall or near miss at best right now. The worse case scenario IMO now is something similar to Bob... Given this, are you saying you're confident in that the center will cross at least RI or MA, if not NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd like to see what the 0Z KMA is showing before declaring anything, Where's tmagan? KMA doesn't have the global maps on their website anymore. However it did poorly in the past with Atlantic tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 5 am advisory has the cyclone just grazing Cape Hatteras and coming ashore on E LI and extreme SE CT/RI. The Day 5 position is over inland RI with winds of 70 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NHC 5am track now brings the storm ashore near Moriches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 5 am advisory has the cyclone just grazing Cape Hatteras and coming ashore on E LI and extreme SE CT/RI. The Day 5 position is over inland RI with winds of 70 kt. Thats the 00z euro run to a "t"...........which has been shifting east since monday nights 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thats the 00z euro run to a "t"...........which has been shifting east since monday nights 00z The NAM has been sleeping thru this event so for what its worth....NAM would prob be a big hit http://www.cnrfc.noa...m_namer_pcp.php Headed NNW at the time Resized to 68% (was 1024 x 768) - Click image to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just out of curiousity, how many more times are you going to repeat yourself?? I must have seen a dozen posts from you where you basically say the same thing, we get it already, east shift. If trend continues a big shift to the east like it has been then you could say 100% sure the threat is over. I believe there will be at least some additional shift to east with today. Right now with current trends I believe the only effects we will from Irene like typically is the huge swells, minor coastal flooding/beach erosion . There could be some rain for LI and CT if tracks closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just out of curiousity, how many more times are you going to repeat yourself?? I must have seen a dozen posts from you where you basically say the same thing, we get it already, east shift. I was making point that anymore significant shift to the east today would mean that threat is over for sure. I am talking about not just receiving a direct hit and getting heavy rain and strong winds all together for the entire area including LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z gfs is a tad further west....brushes outerbanks then goes over Souteast Mass............brushes the twin forks..... Nyc-down the jersey shore gets 5+ of rain......LI 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z gfs is a tad further west....brushes outerbanks then goes over Souteast Mass............brushes the twin forks..... Nyc-down the jersey shore gets 5+ of rain......LI 7-10 The kicker is much weaker though-- this is like watching Boxing Day lol-- let's hope it's the start of a trend and not a 6z/18z data burp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The kicker is much weaker though-- this is like watching Boxing Day lol-- let's hope it's the start of a trend and not a 6z/18z data burp lol I hope so too but still wouldn't get my hopes up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just looked at some satellite images...track looks to already been trending a bit NE of forecast, even in the short-term. not calling things off just yet, but it is looking unlikely at this point for a landfall in NJ/LI/CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I like an Earl track, maybe a tad further west than that but still a good 100-200 miles SE of Montauk. Not sold on any heavy rain for NYC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 threat over as some of us thought You called the storm dead over hispanola. Give the lying a rest for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lol at anyone who is calling this over because of a 120 hour cycle of runs. That's as bad as saying storm is going to happen because of a 120 hour forecast. This thread is unreadable. Half the posts here belong in the banter thread. Read the thread's rules. A post like "yup, as I thought, it's over, is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lol at the idiots who are calling this over because of a 120 hour cycle of runs. That's as bad as saying storm is going to happen because of a 120 hour forecast. This thread is unreadable. Boxing day blizzard, trended west dec 24 which means nothings set in stone till last minute, people need to atleast wait till friday Fwiw steve d new map has it cutting across long island looks like central of the island to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Why the smiley haha I thought you wanted it to come That smiley is in response to the ultimate stupidity of that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My point forecast for brooklyn Saturday Night: Rain and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 77. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Night: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy and very windy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Regardless of what happens, in my lifetime these things have always been a letdown for this area. Floyd was a gust of wind and a bit of rain, it was a joke. That was a Cat 1 directly over NJ. Yes northern NJ got flooding. I think the worst we've had in this area in the past 20 years was 2003's Isabel. Somehow that slammed into North Carolina and managed to get us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Can see everyone's frustration--every year it's the same thing....east trend in the end and verification ends up even further east...it's just climo around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 New update. Irene now a major category 3 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Scooter just posted in the sne thread that the 6z gfs ens are just nw of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z ensembles are just nw of the BM it seems. Hello Earl....the threat is greatly reduced in my opinion. East trends this early in the game are very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Scooter just posted in the sne thread that the 6z gfs ens are just nw of the benchmark Meanwhile, the 6z GFDL ticked west from the 0z run. There's still a lot of uncertainty concerning the exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Meanwhile, the 6z GFDL ticked west from the 0z run. There's still a lot of uncertainty concerning the exact track. Uncertainty, abosolutely, but I would use caution using the GFDL, its been absolutely awful with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 the post above shows some mighty nasty winds..taken from the 6z GFS...more expansive than Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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