k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am pulling for you guys to get it instead of landfall in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still think though it will more likely hit the Caroline coast as Cat 2 or 3 storm but I see 3 possibilities right now. 1. Recurves OTS 2. Take Bob like track but be much weaker though as tropical storm due the slow moment over cooler waters and perhaps lose its tropical features by the time it makes second landfall on the Eastern tip of LI 3. Take a middle track and brushes the cape as either a weak tropical storm/depression or become post tropical hrybid system. You missed one of the most obvious scenarios, and the one depicted by the models and by the NHC. good call dude. i just tuned that in...they were talking about the resemblence to a 1944 hurricane that stayed offshore but made landfall around cape cod canal. They said that storm did a ton of damage on the shore. They had a cool graphic showing all the models as well...folks it looks like this may be the real deal. They upgraded the potential impacts on the northeast to major. Was just down in Freeport on the nautical mile. Had a bite to eat at Otto's, i was thinking how bad it would be if a storm came in and wiped that place out. The 1944 hurricane didn't stay offshore of this area-- it made landfall on E Long Island with winds of 95 kt. This situation is getting rather scary.. A storm coming into western LI w/ hurricane force winds - even low end cat 1 - would be devastating tree-wise.. And the flooding looks pretty prolific as well... Let's not go overboard. NY has been hit by 75-kt hurricanes before. This storm has a real potential to be a "It could happen Tomorrow" type storm for us. Not really. When we have a Cat 5 near the Bahamas, with wind of 150 kt, and a very strong steering current propelling it rapidly due N toward the Northeast USA, then we can talk about once-a-century storms. Might this significantly impact the region? Yes. Might it be the biggest 'cane to hit Long Island in 25 years? Yes-- because it would be the only one in that time. Will it be a disaster of epic proportions? I highly doubt it. I think we should save this kind of grave language for situations that warrant it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 According to wikepedia, it says landfall was at long beach which is not too far east of JFK http://en.wikipedia....urricane_Gloria Where I was on the south shore at the Nassau Suffolk border the eye passed over. We were all under the impression that the backside would be worse but of course it essentially fell apart at that point. The damage was done by then though. To read later that it was barely a 1 when it made landfall was surprising considering the damage done. What was surprising was the relatively limited field of damage. I remember on the news hearing about how 'we' dodged a bullet, etc., which of course NYC had. Even the difference between south of Merrick Road and, say the Southern State Parkway was dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You missed one of the most obvious scenarios, and the one depicted by the models and by the NHC. The 1944 hurricane didn't stay offshore of this area-- it made landfall on E Long Island with winds of 95 kt. Let's not go overboard. NY has been hit by 75-kt hurricanes before. Not really. When we have a Cat 5 near the Bahamas, with wind of 150 kt, and a very strong steering current propelling it rapidly due N toward the Northeast USA, then we can talk about once-a-century storms. Might this significantly impact the region? Yes. Might it be the biggest 'cane to hit Long Island in 25 years? Yes-- because it would be the only one in that time. Will it be a disaster of epic proportions? I highly doubt it. I think we should save this kind of grave language for situations that warrant it. Agreed, though the possibility of even being grazed by this storm raises eyebrows considering the amount of rain that has fallen in the last few weeks. Ground is very saturated. Flooding and downed trees could very well be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 You missed one of the most obvious scenarios, and the one depicted by the models and by the NHC. The 1944 hurricane didn't stay offshore of this area-- it made landfall on E Long Island with winds of 95 kt. Let's not go overboard. NY has been hit by 75-kt hurricanes before. Not really. When we have a Cat 5 near the Bahamas, with wind of 150 kt, and a very strong steering current propelling it rapidly due N toward the Northeast USA, then we can talk about once-a-century storms. Might this significantly impact the region? Yes. Might it be the biggest 'cane to hit Long Island in 25 years? Yes-- because it would be the only one in that time. Will it be a disaster of epic proportions? I highly doubt it. I think we should save this kind of grave language for situations that warrant it. where is it exactly going to make landfall?? you seem to know the rest. lol jkjk I know what you are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 00Z RGEM continues to be on the western side of the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 105 00z gfs its further east.....sits about 200-250 off the delmarva....costal sections and Li getting hit with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 105 00z gfs its further east.....sits about 200-250 off the delmarva....costal sections and Li getting hit with heavy rain. 960 low http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 114 just east of the twin forks.......Nyc-east and sne get a ton of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just like anything else, don't put too much stock in one run, It's been said that there were large differences along the PAC NW this run so it will take a day or so to run it through the whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 hr 117 its over the cape........with such a strong system, kind of odd to see such a small expansion of a rain sheild on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 960 low http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06108.gif Once again, the global models cannot be accurately used to determine minimum central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Once again, the global models cannot be accurately used to determine minimum central pressure. I know Jake. I am just reading what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know Jake. I am just reading what the GFS shows. If it is absolutely inaccurate, what's the point? And holy jeez at how strong of a gradient this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Typical GFS s/e bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Typical GFS s/e bias. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just took a look at the Euro Ensembles... Using the MSLP Spag plots, its clear that the 0z Euro is about 50-100 miles west of the main cluster of ensemble members. Most of the big hitters take the storm right up the coast not inland like the OP Euro did. The 12z run showed the same thing, with the OP SLP being a touch to the NW of the main group of ensemble members, which makes me think the models showing the storm moving N or even NNW once it reaches our area are a bit too slow with the evolution of the UL trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If it is absolutely inaccurate, what's the point? And holy jeez at how strong of a gradient this is. It looks like the City gets around 4 inches of rain while eastern LI gets over 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not really surprised to see a few changes from run to run at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DT says GFS is bullcrap . He thinks that the trough on the GFS is too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 this is definitly a bit of a set back right as it seemed we were moving towards some sort of consensus, as long as the Euro doesn't make a big jump east this was proably just a fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 this is definitly a bit of a set back right as it seemed we were moving towards some sort of consensus, as long as the Euro doesn't make a big jump east this was proably just a fluke run. You have no way of knowing this. lol. It could be totally spot on and starting a "trend". Let's just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Oy Vey, I really hate nail biters. EyeReen will go where it wants to though, it's not like the models are set in stone. However, I really hate nail biters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DT says GFS is bullcrap . He thinks that the trough on the GFS is too extreme. I'd like to see what the 0Z KMA is showing before declaring anything, Where's tmagan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 0z GGEM has a 976 low just east of LI. Shifted slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 just like anything else, don't put too much stock in one run, unless it shows major flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Lovely QPF maps.... March 2010's Nor'easter: The Tropical Version?: Welcome back! I hope we get a Hurricane Chris up here one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 DT says GFS is bullcrap . He thinks that the trough on the GFS is too extreme. What time is the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 0z GGEM has a 976 low just east of LI. Shifted slightly east. GGEM shifted way east and has Irene centered close to or just south of Nantucket Sunday 12Z. But I would not put much weight into GGEM for this storm at this time. It handles tropical systems poorly until they get much further north. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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