ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Someone just posted the 0z early guidance tracks over at the "Hurricane Irene Model Discussion" thread A number of them are clustered on LI. Yup. West of previous runs: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest2best.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This situation is getting rather scary.. A storm coming into western LI w/ hurricane force winds - even low end cat 1 - would be devastating tree-wise.. And the flooding looks pretty prolific as well... Right now I think the main impact will be the major coastal flood/beach erosion and flooding rains . On the east side of the storm will be some gusty winds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 With astronomical high tide when she arrives,you are talking about coastal flooding worse than the DEC 1992 Noreaster.Everyone from Breezy Point to Montauk will have serious and potential catastrophic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This storm has a real potential to be a "It could happen Tomorrow" type storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ok don't go overboard. Show me a gfdl track on Friday and then hit the panic buttons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This storm has a real potential to be a "It could happen Tomorrow" type storm for us. If the strength of this storm continues and the models continue to maintain their trajectory into the NYC/LI area - the media is going to flip by Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the strength of this storm continues and the models continue to maintain their trajectory into the NYC/LI area - the media is going to flip by <b>Friday</b>.. I believe the final outcome will be a miss for us for truly destructive impacts,but enough for a significant flooding event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This storm has a real potential to be a "It could happen Tomorrow" type storm for us. Meh. For some localized areas, yeah, damage is likely going to be extreme if it follows almost any of the early 00z cycle models. Ok don't go overboard. Show me a gfdl track on Friday and then hit the panic buttons. Yeah, it's a wait-and-see game at this point. I'm not buying the milk and TP yet. If the strength of this storm continues and the models continue to maintain their trajectory into the NYC/LI area - the media is going to flip by Friday.. The only reason they didn't start today is because of the earthquake IMO. They should be locking in tomorrow if nothing huge changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The storm's still 5 days out-way too early to totally freak. I recall Katrina at that stage in 2005 being progged to maybe hit Panama City but instead hitting just E of New Orleans. I think the normal error at this range is up to 200 or so miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The storm's still 5 days out-way too early to totally freak. I recall Katrina at that stage in 2005 being progged to maybe hit Panama City but instead hitting just E of New Orleans. I think the normal error at this range is up to 200 or so miles. And with each model run it trends further and further east. This time tomorrow we very well will be talking about cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 And with each model run it trends further and further east. This time tomorrow we very well will be talking about cape cod. Not really. The trend seemed to have stopped at 12z, and most models are nudging a little west at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 And with each model run it trends further and further east. This time tomorrow we very well will be talking about cape cod. Incorrect. Several models made a jump west since yesterday. But, it's still very far out. Not until Thursday at the earliest should anyone get overly concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Incorrect. Several models made a jump west since yesterday. But, it's still very far out. Not until Thursday at the earliest should anyone get overly concerned. Yup. Today we saw several models make their first bumps west in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The fact that we are going to be "in between" troughs for a while will allow this storm to head due north for quite a while. Even if the storm only barely grazes Hatteras, we'll still get a potentially very scary scenario. The storm doesn't seem to want to take any eastward turn until the storm is literally just south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 92 nor easter in the Bronx was devastati mng it w as underforecastered with man y tide s . The time year Dec saved the trees hurricane are fast movers one tide see ya.ii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's hard to type. On a phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The storm's still 5 days out-way too early to totally freak. I recall Katrina at that stage in 2005 being progged to maybe hit Panama City but instead hitting just E of New Orleans. I think the normal error at this range is up to 200 or so miles. Any margin of error at this point makes the landfall on LI very different. A shift 100 miles east and nothing happens, a shift 100 miles west and its possible the storm comes more into NC and undergoes a ton of weakening. North Carolina and the fact it sticks out so far into the Atlantic results in there being a relatively thin margin for error in storms hitting LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Could be that I haven't looked far back enough through this thread, but am really surprised I"m not hearing more about how Gloria-like this track is. Having said that, I'm realizing that Gloria was *26* years ago. Wow does time fly. (Edit: how Gloria-like the projected track is from NC on northward.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like a rather sharp eastern shift of the NHC track. Edit: Made a mistake, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If this is anything like Gloria od 1985 or December 1992 (winds and flooding) or the rain of Hurricane Floyd, its going to be quite a sight; but I really hope its not that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any margin of error at this point makes the landfall on LI very different. A shift 100 miles east and nothing happens, a shift 100 miles west and its possible the storm comes more into NC and undergoes a ton of weakening. North Carolina and the fact it sticks out so far into the Atlantic results in there being a relatively thin margin for error in storms hitting LI. Exactly-very little margin of error here, although some kind of direct impact looks quite likely at this time. I could definitely see the 2nd or 3rd trough being deeper and causing an eastward track that grazes New England, or a stronger ridge that forces a track a little closer to an Isabel. Either way, it really won't be time to sound alarms until late this week. But I can imagine the headaches that any evacuation plan would feature if this really did take that kind of 1944 or even Gloria type track. There are hundreds of thousands of people potentially in flood zones in even a Cat 1 hit, and I wouldn't envy any NYC emergency planner's responsibilities this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What this tells me is that they feel a comprimise between the Euro and GFS is best at this time, which is basically a worst case scenario. Still a major hurricane just north of OBX and still a hurricane, with landfall over western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Would be a similar landfall as Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like a rather sharp eastern shift of the NHC track. Edit: Made a mistake, sorry. NHC 8pm sunday has the hurricane in nassua county, sustained winds of 74 mph........thats def a bit west of the model consenus, would be a disaster if happen......Good thing its a day 5 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That could be a worse case than Gloria. Its hard to say, Gloria came in east of that current NHC track, the landfall I believe was over far western Suffolk and it exited the north shore near Port Jefferson. The current NHC track is probably a bit west of the worst case scenario in a NNE moving storm, a track 50 miles more east is probably the nightmare because it generally does not interact with NJ/MD at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah, the media will def go nuts now with a hurricane dot right on nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That could be a worse case than Gloria. Its hard to say, Gloria came in east of that current NHC track, the landfall I believe was over far western Suffolk and it exited the north shore near Port Jefferson. The current NHC track is probably a bit west of the worst case scenario in a NNE moving storm, a track 50 miles more east is probably the nightmare because it generally does not interact with NJ/MD at all. According to wikepedia, it says landfall was at long beach which is not too far east of JFK http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.