IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 How is that aggressive 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The GFS QPF amounts are possibly underdone, the high res models should have a better idea once we get closer. In all reality, you don't need a model to tell you that TC's produce torrential rainfall, and then there is the PRE which Mt. Holly mentioned, should be a very active week. Walt Drag wrote that section of the Mt Holly AFD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 90% Most models give us rain sunday........they are not saying a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 does anyone know why the heaviest precip switches to the left side of the hurricane on the gfs where land is? and leaves the right side bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A more western track is what I'd take Looks like Lee Goldberg's thinking is a Cat 1 or 2 over central or eastern LI... he thinks it only grazes NC and doesn't lose much strength there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'd say this is one to save ...12z Euro at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This could, could be a stronger version of hurricane Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This could, could be a stronger version of hurricane Bob. Bob over NYC/western LI is a totally different animal than what it was over block island... if this is anything like Gloria, but further west - we are in for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lovely QPF maps.... March 2010's Nor'easter: The Tropical Version?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Again, it's amazing the degree of agreement and consistency among the models at this point in the game-still 5 days out for us. It's hard to say we're in for major impacts here as of yet, but the threat is certainly increasing. You pretty much take a GFS/Euro blend the way they've been for the last 2 days, and it could be a major if not destructive impact for much of Long Island and the NJ shore. I don't really buy the storm slowing down as it tracks this far north in latitude and westerlies exert more influence, but the track so far is quite ominous for us. I still think though that our odds increase if the storm actually makes landfall in NC-if it only grazes, I see it bending east far enough to spare major impacts, at least well inland. Given the new moon and astronomically very high tides upcoming, I wonder if evacuations will be called for here in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The CDO has really started to become more symmetrical in the past few hours, and with an eye potentially clearing out and pressures falling quickly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Irene making a run at Cat 4 by 11 am. Also of note, it hasn't burped out any outflow boundaries recently, which means it may be finally getting over its dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 LEK just posted the gfdl in the main thread. looks like the euro track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Pretty consistent on most models, that Irene will impact the metro area, but in terms of intensity and rainfall amounts depends on the intricacies of the track and its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The CDO has really started to become more symmetrical in the past few hours, and with an eye potentially clearing out and pressures falling quickly, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Irene making a run at Cat 4 by 11 am. Also of note, it hasn't burped out any outflow boundaries recently, which means it may be finally getting over its dry air issues. A ton of dry air over the bahamas still and the storm tops have warmed in the last several frames so RI likely not underway just yet even though the pressure has come down but that makes sense given the NHC forecast of steady strengthening but not rapid. A cat 4 by 11am is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 A ton of dry air over the bahamas still and the storm tops have warmed in the last several frames so RI likely not underway just yet even though the pressure has come down but that makes sense given the NHC forecast of steady strengthening but not rapid. A cat 4 by 11am is highly unlikely. I see the CDO is really condensing, so I'm not convinced the dry air is going to be a huge issue. And I didn't say it would necessarily be at Cat 4 by 11 am (agree it's unlikely, but not impossible), although I do think it could be on that track by midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 nice fuel the next 48 hours Tropical Heat Potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am not buying all of this yet because I still remember Edward in 96. But if it slows down it has time to weaken over the cooler waters and my gut feeling this will take more Charley in 2004 where more likely I think a weak Tropical Storm becoming Extra-tropical when and if it does make landfall on Eastern Long Island. I think SE coast up from FL to NC coast will in danger with this hurricane. I still the area will see heavy rain and in fact good portation of the east coast will be line of heavy rain and some wind for Eastern LI and SNE if the storm just track over Eastern LI as a Tropical Storm. Flooding will be a concern again with all the rain we had in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am not buying all of this yet because I still remember Edward in 96. Edouard was a different situation tbh... Irene is already well to the SW of Edouard's turning point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still think though it will more likely hit the Caroline coast as Cat 2 or 3 storm but I see 3 possibilities right now. 1. Recurves OTS 2. Take Bob like track but be much weaker though as tropical storm due the slow moment over cooler waters and perhaps lose its tropical features by the time it makes second landfall on the Eastern tip of LI 3. Take a middle track and brushes the cape as either a weak tropical storm/depression or become post tropical hrybid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I still think though it will more likely hit the Caroline coast as Cat 2 or 3 storm but I see 3 possibilities right now. 1. Recurves OTS 2. Take Bob like track but be much weaker though and perhaps lose its tropical features by the time it brushes Eastern LI 3. Take a middle track and brushes the cape as either a weak tropical storm/depression or become post tropical hrybid system. and not one of your 3 possibilities involve a significant storm impacting our area. that is a bit foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Eye is becoming more clear on the last frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 and not one of your 3 possibilities involve a significant storm impacting our area. that is a bit foolish. There is a 4th possiblity that it could take a Floyd like track then it will probably be either barely a tropical storm where it could spend time over land and cooler waters but then expect more widespread flooding rains to occur in this case was to happen. I am just my thoughts like it has been the last 20 years and I don't feel this will be significant right now but that could change though. It still 5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 cantore and norcross talking about a nnw movement late in the forecast period like what the gfdl and the euro show. That would be quite rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There is a 4th possiblity that it could take a Floyd like track then it will probably be either barely a tropical storm where it could spend time over land and cooler waters but then expect more widespread flooding rains to occur in this case was to happen. I am just my thoughts like it has been the last 20 years and I don't feel this will be significant right now but that could change though. It still 5 days away. HPC's 00z 5 day QPF Map is out. 12"+ for LI http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 cantore and norcross talking about a nnw movement late in the forecast period like what the gfdl and the euro show. That would be quite rare Agnes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 cantore and norcross talking about a nnw movement late in the forecast period like what the gfdl and the euro show. That would be quite rare good call dude. i just tuned that in...they were talking about the resemblence to a 1944 hurricane that stayed offshore but made landfall around cape cod canal. They said that storm did a ton of damage on the shore. They had a cool graphic showing all the models as well...folks it looks like this may be the real deal. They upgraded the potential impacts on the northeast to major. Was just down in Freeport on the nautical mile. Had a bite to eat at Otto's, i was thinking how bad it would be if a storm came in and wiped that place out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 HPC's 00z 5 day QPF Map is out. 12"+ for LI http://www.hpc.ncep....qpf/p120i00.gif Saw that not to long ago. Since it appears Irene may not be rocketing by but taking her time it only increase the period of rain and thus qpf. Suspect the type of qpf is realistic possibility just a matter of final track and where heaviest axis ends up. Just like tracking the snow/qpf bullseye in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Someone just posted the 0z early guidance tracks over at the "Hurricane Irene Model Discussion" thread A number of them are clustered on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Someone just posted the 0z early guidance tracks over at the "Hurricane Irene Model Discussion" thread A number of them are clustered on LI. This situation is getting rather scary.. A storm coming into western LI w/ hurricane force winds - even low end cat 1 - would be devastating tree-wise.. And the flooding looks pretty prolific as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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