KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z hurricane model consenus is SE of montauk some hurricane models..there are some that take it inland or cut through the Island..I think we're looking at the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nhc track has irene riding the jersey coast after slamming the outer banks as a major hurricane. wow. who else is gonna chase this baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nhc track has irene riding the jersey coast after slamming the outer banks as a major hurricane. wow. who else is gonna chase this baby? With the usual inside 48 hour east move that hurricanes usually trend to, landfall will probably be on LI somewhere. We should do a get together and chase together, if we get this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nhc track has irene riding the jersey coast after slamming the outer banks as a major hurricane. wow. who else is gonna chase this baby? low end cat 1 or strong tropical storm? no thanks cat 4+ or nothing please I'll enjoy the rain/thunderstorms and wind though. but I will admit im starting to get a little pumped here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'll absolutely be heading south Sunday morning. Even if it stays offshore should still get some nice waves and wind nhc track has irene riding the jersey coast after slamming the outer banks as a major hurricane. wow. who else is gonna chase this baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think it would be worse for us because we would be on the right side. Bertha was a 65 mph tropical storm with hurricane force gusts for us as it tracked right over JFK. That's what I'm thinking right now. (Bertha hit Wilmington as a strong Cat 2, it was a minimal Cat 3 over the water for a brief time.) I believe Floyd was also 65 mph up here, but it made landfall east of us at Jones Beach. I remember the wind from Floyd being pretty bad on the boardwalk in Long Beach, but it was a northerly wind and the water therefore didn't make it past the dunes. If Floyd was southerly wind instead of northerly, the flooding would've been a lot worse. Most of the rain fell over NJ as well. I don't really remember Bertha that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nhc track has irene riding the jersey coast after slamming the outer banks as a major hurricane. wow. who else is gonna chase this baby? Lee Goldberg mentioned that it's likely the east trend will continue. You see a lot of the hurricane models have it hitting eastern LI, or missing LI to the east. NHC has to play it safe with the track at this point. It will likely be shifted east in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I remember the wind from Floyd being pretty bad on the boardwalk in Long Beach, but it was a northerly wind and the water therefore didn't make it past the dunes. If Floyd was southerly wind instead of northerly, the flooding would've been a lot worse. Most of the rain fell over NJ as well. I don't really remember Bertha that well. You would get southerly winds with Bertha, because it passed just to the west of us. And NE winds on the north shore of Queens, so flooding everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Remember, its not only central pressure, but pressure gradient. It is the gradient that creates the wind. A similar situation would be Hurricane Ike in the western Gulf of Mexico. And Dec 1992 is another great example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Despite the euro and GFDL the end result will likely be SE of Montauk, its hard to beat climo 120hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Despite the euro and GFDL the end result will likely be SE of Montauk, its hard to beat climo 120hrs out I actually agree with you. nhc track should shift 50 miles east if anything. I think earthlight is leaning that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ***SEVERE/FF POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND A POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOLLOWED BY IRENES TBD IMPACTS SUNDAY*** KEEPING THIS RELATIVELY SHORT AND TO THE POINT. THURSDAY...SCATTERED MID LVL SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING BUT THOSE SHOULD DRY OUT AT THE EXPENSE OF COLD FRONTAL ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTN/EVENING. BLENDED NCEP POP GUIDANCE. ALL THE MODEL MOS AND 2M TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD BY 5F AND RAISED THOSE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR A +18C 850 SW FLOW SCENARIO. TT SHOULD BE IN THE 48-52 RANGE WITH 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FF ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR WHERE GRIDDED FFG IS LOW /BUT DRYING OUT FOR ANOTHER DAY TIL THURSDAY/. FRIDAY...PROBABLY A SHORT INTERLUDE IN THE MORNING BUT THE PWAT AND KI GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND READY TO EDGE NWWD. 12Z/23 GFS MEX POPS BLENDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY EVENING...UKMET IS WELL E OF ITS PREVIOUS INLAND TRACK AND THE 12Z/23 EC HAS EDGED EAST...MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z/23 GFS/GGEM OP. NO MATTER...IF IRENE GOES ALONG AS PREDICTED INTENSITY AND AND CENTROID TRACK...AM EXPECTING A PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST NW OF AN INVERTED TROF...SE FLOW TO THE I95 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHT NELY FLOW IN E PA. THE PRE PPT IS ON-LINE. IN ESSENCE A STRENGTHENING RRQ OF THE UPPER LVL JET WILL ASSIST SE INFLOW/IRENE LEAKAGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR WELL TO THE NW OF IRENE IN A SORT OF BANDING SCENARIO THAT SHOULD PERMIT MID LVL INSTABILITY TO YIELD POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHERE THIS WILL BE...PRESUMING IRENE REMAINS ON THE 21Z FCST TRACK...MY ESTIMATE THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 30 MI OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. AN EVENT LIKE THIS COULD EASILY PRODUCE FF/FLOOD POTENTIAL RFALL OF 5 INCHES OR MORE. AGAIN...JUST DONT KNOW WHERE AND MUST HAVE A HURRICANE TRACK SIMILAR CLOSE THAT OF 21Z/23. THEREAFTER...NHC TCM WINDS/PWS ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE BACKGROUND WINDS OF THE GFS MEX AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IRENE IS BELOW TCM WIND/PWS THRESHOLD POTENTIAL. PLEASE NOTE...AT LEAST TODAY THERE WILL BE STANDARD 330PM AND 330AM ISSUANCE`S WITH A NECESSARY APPROXIMATELY 515 PM/AM RE-ISSUANCE TO INCORPORATE NHC TCM WINDS AND PROBS. SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...FAR TOO EARLY TO BE SURE OF IRENE AND ITS IMPACTS. PLEASE MONITOR NHC FORECASTS AND THE PHI BACKGROUND INFORMATION. THIS 330 PM FCST CUTOFF THE TROP CONDITION PHRASING AT 12Z DUE TO GUIDELINES. THIS WILL EXTEND INTO SUNDAY BY THE 530 PM UPDATE AS THE DAY 5 NHC FCST EXTENDS FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. THE RISKS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...ARE A GLANCING BLOW TO THAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS..TREES DOWN ON SATURATED GROUND...FF RAINS /ESPECIALLY AUGUST STORM TOTAL 10+ INCH RAIN AREAS SO FAR TO DATE AND URBAN CENTERS/ HIGH SEAS AND ASSOCIATED TIDAL FLOODING WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE. WE JUST DONT KNOW AND SO FOR NOW...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ALTER THEIR WEEKEND PLANS FOR MORE SAFE ALTERNATIVES. ECMWF HAS A LARGE AREA OF 6 INCH RFALL IN E PA....LESSER TO THE EAST. IF IRENE FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK AND INTENSITY AS FCST AT 21Z TODAY...WATCH THE BACKSIDE PRES RISE-FALL COUPLET AND TRANSFER OF OF VERY STRONG 975-950 WINDS TO THE SFC. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18Z RGEM Hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC slightly east with 5pm, shows a Cat 1 over Toms River area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents Toms River? That's like Cape May.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 wow, i cant believe there will potentially be a hurricane impacting our area, while im up here in New Paltz. ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18Z DGEX takes it from Hatteras to Block Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 102 18z gfs irene western eyewall is over the outerbanks. hr 111 sub 970 100-125 miles east of the delmarva...heavy rain for the whole area hr 114 east of acy...heavy rain for the whole area...looks to be a bit east of the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 hr 123 makes landfall on LI....... verbatiam major flooding problems for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 From the Philly thread in relation to the NHC mentioning 1944 as an analog: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z GFS is faster by about 6-12hrs, and the QPF axis is just about the same, heaviest band from about ACY to western LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 rainfall amounts for the metro area is 5+ and 9-10 on LI.......this is for 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 JB just got on 770 WABC on my way home from work, and basically told everyone to expect a "Gloria" type event or worse....ouch... the media field day has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 JB just got on 770 WABC on my way home from work, and basically told everyone to expect a "Gloria" type event or worse....ouch... the media field day has begun Looks like Lee Goldberg's thinking is a Cat 1 or 2 over central or eastern LI... he thinks it only grazes NC and doesn't lose much strength there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 rainfall amounts for the metro area is 5+ and 9-10 on LI.......this is for 18z gfs Wow, this is ground zero for 10-15 inches of rain! Doesn't it track the center over Nantucket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man those rain maps look like the snow maps from this past winter where I got flurries and my mom got feet in Belmar. Another flooding night mare for jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow, this is ground zero for 10-15 inches of rain! Doesn't it track the center over Nantucket? It brings it up into RI...then NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like we will have to get the floodboats out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very agressive for a 4-5 day forecast, I was thinking maybe a "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" wording but too early I guess. NWS going with a 90% chance of heavy rain Saturday night and Sunday Saturday: A chance of showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very agressive for a 4-5 day forecast, I was thinking maybe a "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" wording but too early I guess. NWS going with a 90% chance of heavy rain Saturday night and Sunday Saturday: A chance of showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 78. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Chance of precipitation is 60%. How is that aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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