earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 132 hr 12z Euro surface winds. Very bad on the NJ shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here's the image right after landfall...could be destruction in Ocean City, MD and surrounding areas if this were to verify. It's a ways out, but it is crazy to see. That's one of the most hurricane prone places I've ever been to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here is a topic that's not really been discussed, tornado threat on Euro track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 earthlight, are those wind speeds in knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here's the image right after landfall...could be destruction in Ocean City, MD and surrounding areas if this were to verify. It's a ways out, but it is crazy to see. That's one of the most hurricane prone places I've ever been to. Yikes I have family in Ocean City right now, they are there till sunday, I guess they will be leaving early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 earthlight, are those wind speeds in knots? I can't find the unit on the map--but I would venture to guess it's in miles per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Here's the image right after landfall...could be destruction in Ocean City, MD and surrounding areas if this were to verify. It's a ways out, but it is crazy to see. That's one of the most hurricane prone places I've ever been to. Hey John, where did you get those maps? Is that from the new wunderground site? I couldnt find them on stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hey John, where did you get those maps? Is that from the new wunderground site? I couldnt find them on stormvista Yeah those are the new wunderground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ocean City is long long long over due and way way exposed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ocean City is long long long over due and way way exposed. Looks like good surfing weather around here I may not even have to go to the beach to go surfing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow, we look to be on the right-front quadrant on the Euro... I guess the earthquake wasn't enough for you, now you want this Haha, I'm actually looking forward to going surfing down my street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like good surfing weather around here I may not even have to go to the beach to go surfing LOL SE winds of 60-70 mph+ with the new moon could mean severe flooding around here if it verified. Erosion would be horrible too. It really doesn't take a heck of a lot to flood the immediate south shore in this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Talking about a direct hit on NYC with hurricane force winds... Bill G was talking about an 1821-type track yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We all remember March of 2010.. 60-70mph winds south of Sunrise Hwy... IF we were to get these winds area wide, with FULL Foliage, we'd have some serious problems.. Also as illustrated already- the SE fetch would destroy the beaches... And there would be crazy coastal flooding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 SE winds of 60-70 mph+ with the new moon could mean severe flooding around here if it verified. Erosion would be horrible too. It really doesn't take a heck of a lot to flood the immediate south shore in this kind of setup. This would be worse than Gloria was here-- I know Long Beach got evacuated for that, might be evacuated this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW, NAM looks similar to 12z except stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 SE winds of 60-70 mph+ with the new moon could mean severe flooding around here if it verified. Erosion would be horrible too. It really doesn't take a heck of a lot to flood the immediate south shore in this kind of setup. the new moon sunday night are astro high tides for the month....anyone have a tide schedule for sunday? Edit: looks like Sunday early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Im confused...the Euro showed a storm with a ridic pressure of 931 just west of here....how come the winds r so light in comparison on the model?....and theres no way the pressure is that low when it gets here, but i still dont get y to the above question...can someone please explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This would be worse than Gloria was here-- I know Long Beach got evacuated for that, might be evacuated this time too. If it tracks inland like the Euro shows it's hard for me to see it being worse than maybe Floyd was (still pretty bad), this really has to hit NC as a cat 3 or so for it really to be able to translate the very bad stuff here. Also it has to be going fast-if it slows down like the GFS shows, the main threat would become rain and some scattered wind damage. The ground here is still soaked from the foot plus of rain we've had in the last 10 days. It wouldn't take a lot for trees to start coming down from the wind. If we had something like 3/13 last year it would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lets not worry about winds until thursday night-friday afternoon. Right now it's about track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 the new moon sunday night are astro high tides for the month....anyone have a tide schedule for sunday? Edit: looks like Sunday early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If it tracks inland like the Euro shows it's hard for me to see it being worse than maybe Floyd was (still pretty bad), this really has to hit NC as a cat 3 or so for it really to be able to translate the very bad stuff here. Also it has to be going fast-if it slows down like the GFS shows, the main threat would become rain and some scattered wind damage. The ground here is still soaked from the foot plus of rain we've had in the last 10 days. It wouldn't take a lot for trees to start coming down from the wind. If we had something like 3/13 last year it would be awesome. Models are showing potential for heavy rain on thursday with storm, getting 1-2 inches on thursday wont be good if Irene comes as modeled today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 The pressure at 132 hours on the 12z Euro is sub 960mb directly over McGuire AFB in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If it tracks inland like the Euro shows it's hard for me to see it being worse than maybe Floyd was (still pretty bad), this really has to hit NC as a cat 3 or so for it really to be able to translate the very bad stuff here. Also it has to be going fast-if it slows down like the GFS shows, the main threat would become rain and some scattered wind damage. The ground here is still soaked from the foot plus of rain we've had in the last 10 days. It wouldn't take a lot for trees to start coming down from the wind. If we had something like 3/13 last year it would be awesome. I think it would be worse for us because we would be on the right side. Bertha was a 65 mph tropical storm with hurricane force gusts for us as it tracked right over JFK. That's what I'm thinking right now. (Bertha hit Wilmington as a strong Cat 2, it was a minimal Cat 3 over the water for a brief time.) I believe Floyd was also 65 mph up here, but it made landfall east of us at Jones Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC slightly east with 5pm, shows a Cat 1 over Toms River area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro huggers. Just kidding. Track has shifted east and we are still +/- 200 miles right now with track error this far out. Wanna see how that second trough gets sampled over the next day, two, etc, and remember, we saw drastic shifts within 48 hours over the winter from things coming in from the pac nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 No suprise Irene has weakened, it took a beating all day long from shear and dry air entrainment, should begin to re-organise later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 18z hurricane model consenus is SE of montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Im confused...the Euro showed a storm with a ridic pressure of 931 just west of here....how come the winds r so light in comparison on the model?....and theres no way the pressure is that low when it gets here, but i still dont get y to the above question...can someone please explain? Remember, its not only central pressure, but pressure gradient. It is the gradient that creates the wind. A similar situation would be Hurricane Ike in the western Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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