IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The board clutter here is out of hand, by saying read more post less, its a polite way of saying you can find all the information you wanted by simply reading the forum more closely or consulting the NHC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 6:06 PM, Allsnow said: hr 66 just south of newport news, va hr 72 over eastern delmarva Is it really that much further west than the 00z, or is it more or less in the same position? How does intensity look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 hr 78 brings it into snj......not west of phl this run.......but it was a tad further west in NC.....brings it straight north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Euro has a Cat 1 over NYC at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 6:23 PM, Snow88 said: 12z Euro has a Cat 1 over NYC at 84 hours. Wow, looks like the Euro went east from its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 60 hrs 942mb mooreshead direct hit cat 4 2nd landfall cape may,nj cat 2 84 hrs over nnj/nyc cat 1 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey. This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Well I'm here in Villanova PA kind of wishing I was home in Monmouth for this storm. Figures the the first hurricane in over 20 years comes when I'm not around. Although it won't be anything to sneeze at here in SE PA either, probably 5"+ rains and wind gusts past 50mph (being conservative). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 79 degrees water temps off sandy hook that's scary where is she losing steam until the damage is done sorry very little lose of energy off carolina see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I guess I'm not going to Atlantic City this weekend. It will be underwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Point and click for my area Quote Saturday Night...Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...increasing to east 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph after midnight. Sunday...Hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s. Sunday Night...Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 8:20 PM, Snow88 said: Point and click for my area My point and click only says tropical storm conditions, and im out on long island. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 What is this point and click you are talking about? On 8/25/2011 at 8:24 PM, jasonli18t said: My point and click only says tropical storm conditions, and im out on long island. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 8:27 PM, Wannabehippie said: What is this point and click you are talking about? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ078&zflg=1 You can input your location at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey. This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:18 PM, Dsnowx53 said: The 0z Euro had the center in W NJ/E PA at 96 hours, and the 12z Euro has the center on NYC at 84 hours. So it shifted east by approximately the width of New Jersey. This makes sense. The Euro is realizing that the storm simply cannot fully phase into the trough, it will partially, then get deflected east of north. Looks like there is some convergence in the models going on. Yup, there is amazing consistency between the models for a landfall somewhere between NJ and Nassau County lol. BTW we both came back to the board at the same time-- it seems like a ghost town on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 looks like we're back in business again here on the boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I'm kind of excited, I want to see how low my barometer can go Previous low is from the Tax Day Noreaster 966 mb or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 shhhhh On 8/25/2011 at 11:22 PM, tornadojay said: looks like we're back in business again here on the boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Euro is making large jumps still run to run, that bothers me. GFS is so consistent. Basically the GFS splits the uprights of the GGEM and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:22 PM, tornadojay said: looks like we're back in business again here on the boards Dont jinx it Jay, I was on for a couple minutes about 15 minutes ago and off it went again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 But its more in line with the other models at this point. If it was going in the opposite direction I'd be more concerned. On 8/25/2011 at 11:23 PM, TheTrials said: Euro is making large jumps still run to run, that bothers me. GFS is so consistent. Basically the GFS splits the uprights of the GGEM and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 18z early guidance shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:23 PM, TheTrials said: Euro is making large jumps still run to run, that bothers me. GFS is so consistent. Basically the GFS splits the uprights of the GGEM and the Euro. Well, at least they are all close together now lol and the Euro was the first global model to see the westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:24 PM, Plfdwxdude said: But its more in line with the other models at this point. If it was going in the opposite direction I'd be more concerned. And 18z guidance is going farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 All of the early 18z models take it solidly into NC, which really would serve to reduce the intensity of the storm when it reaches the upper Mid-Atlantic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:27 PM, Juliancolton said: All of the early 18z models take it solidly into NC, which really would serve to reduce the intensity of the storm when it reaches the upper Mid-Atlantic area. with all due respect...look a few comments up...maybe 3 have it solidly into NC...the rest keep it over the water...with all due respect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The early models are run off of limited data and are no where as powerful as the globals. GFS, Euro, and UKIE can easily handle this storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:29 PM, psv88 said: with all due respect...look a few comments up...maybe 3 have it solidly into NC...the rest keep it over the water...with all due respect... We looking at the same guidance chart? The map a few lines up is hotlinked, and might be lagging from 12z on your screen. Unless I'm entirely wrong, which is also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On 8/25/2011 at 11:30 PM, Juliancolton said: We looking at the same guidance chart? The map a few lines up is hotlinked, and might be lagging from 12z on your screen. Unless I'm entirely wrong, which is also possible. Euro has it as a Cat 1 in NYC..it basically takes it from Morehead city up the shore..that is not inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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