LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Latest model runs certainly lay out the potential for some incredible rains, along with some folks getting at least some TS force winds. 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yikes! Something to definitely keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just what we need after 6 inches in the last 8 or 9 days. Yikes! Something to definitely keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Euro disagrees with this solution. The Euro doesn't hook it to the NE like the GFS does because the 2nd upper level disturbance that swings down from Canada isn't as strong. I think once data is injested into the 00Z model run tonight, the paths are going to shift slightly back towards the west. Evidentally the models aren't picking up on the higher than modeled ridging taking place over the Bahamas. If I were to guess I would say a landfall just to the east of Charleston, SC and this takes a path similar to the Euro up to Lancaster. Anyone capable of showing a few frames from the Euro to do some comparing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks good...though models seem a bit east again today. FWIW ...Andy is on some beach on Long Island. He certainly knows how to pick the best vacay spot. Maybe he will check in here from the eye of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 TWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks good...though models seem a bit east again today. FWIW ...Andy is on some beach on Long Island. He certainly knows how to pick the best vacay spot. Maybe he will check in here from the eye of the storm. Andy, is in Montauk on the eastern tip of Long Island......... feels he's a weather Jinx..........maybe he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Andy, is in Montauk on the eastern tip of Long Island......... feels he's a weather Jinx..........maybe he's right. Someone needs to send him a smartphone so he can chime in with near real-time YT videos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 11 pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 5am update, eastward shift continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like some of the models are now trending back west. TWC is going to put the fear of God into the NYC Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 12z Euro hits E. NY/PA pretty hard....18z GFDL sends Irene right up the HRV!! Why not wait 5 months!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 gfs precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Earlier this week I didn't expect much out of Irene up this way. Some of the latest tracks though really bring the rains. Unless this things starts trending significantly east again...certainly expect some heavy rain bands to easily make it up here. Could even wind up being ground zero for heavy rains if this things makes a central or west LI landfall and tracks north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Earlier this week I didn't expect much out of Irene up this way. Some of the latest tracks though really bring the rains. Unless this things starts trending significantly east again...certainly expect some heavy rain bands to easily make it up here. Could even wind up being ground zero for heavy rains if this things makes a central or west LI landfall and tracks north. Interested to see what today's model runs bring. Pretty scary scenario at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 * FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. * FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * HURRICANE IRENE WILL TRACK JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL OVER SPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY WIND DRIVEN RAIN IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE LIKELY. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES ..LITCHFIELD HILLS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS COULD REACH 10 INCHES. * IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN OCCURS MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS WOULD FLOOD. FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OCCURhttp://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Herkimer+NY&product1=Flood+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 72 hr qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 WOW. All the way to Herkimer County: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...SOUTHERN HERKIMER...SOUTHERN FULTON...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN SARATOGA...NORTHERN WARREN... NORTHERN WASHINGTON...SCHOHARIE...SCHOHARIE...WESTERN SCHENECTADY...EASTERN SCHENECTADY...SOUTHERN SARATOGA...WESTERN ALBANY...EASTERN ALBANY...WESTERN RENSSELAER...EASTERN RENSSELAER...WESTERN GREENE...EASTERN GREENE...WESTERN COLUMBIA... EASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHERN FULTON...SOUTHEAST WARREN...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...BENNINGTON...WESTERN WINDHAM AND EASTERN WINDHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lypreila Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 You know, I think the last time we had a TS warning in Columbia county was Floyd. The only thing that worries me is that we are supersaturated right now. We've had almost non-stop rain. so if Irene does drop a significant amount of rainfall, the likelihood of flooding is increased. I wish I could head down to Long Island but I can't find a ride and they're shutting down the mass transit systems at noon tomorrow. Such a shame I haven't seen a good storm in a month or two. On a separate note, TWC and CNN are fearmongering. I do understand that they want to overstate the danger so that people will heed the mandatory evacuation warnings, but come on. Even the Albany channels are blowing this a tad out of proportion. The rainfall predictions are somewhere around 6" right? That could be a problem for Cobelskill/Schoharie/Middleburg area. I was up there yesterday and the creek is rather high. I hope they don't have a repeat of 96'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I was supposed to be in OBX this weekend. Woulda been perfect if not for my buddies getting cold feet and a mandatory evacuation. Cant wait for LES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 00z NAM is an absolute crusher for ENY!!! It's not finished yet...but totals (per the NAM) are going to run over a foot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks to have initialized a bit too far west according to current satellite view as well as comments from board mets...or I might have dusted off the swimmies... 00z NAM is an absolute crusher for ENY!!! It's not finished yet...but totals (per the NAM) are going to run over a foot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 At 11 p.m., Paul Caiano on WNYT predicted 3-6" of rain in the CD with more in the higher elevations. Steve LaPointe on WRGB had 5-8"... some places (higher elevations of course) could get up to 10". Not really sure about power outages in the CD. I guess I'll get some supplies tomorrow just in case. If we do get 5"+ of rain, I expect Western Ave. to be closed near Stuyvesant Plaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Heh, yeah but that area floods in your standard summer thunderstorm...should be pretty wild for a bit there on Sunday. At 11 p.m., Paul Caiano on WNYT predicted 3-6" of rain in the CD with more in the higher elevations. Steve LaPointe on WRGB had 5-8"... some places (higher elevations of course) could get up to 10". Not really sure about power outages in the CD. I guess I'll get some supplies tomorrow just in case. If we do get 5"+ of rain, I expect Western Ave. to be closed near Stuyvesant Plaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 With how much rainfall a lot of the area has received in the last couple of weeks, the flash flood guidance really shows that it won't take much heavy rain (3-3.5" max in most spots) to quickly create a flooding threat. This is certainly shaping up to be a widespread flooding event close to the magnitude of Floyd. That place in north New Jersey in particular really worries me... because that is where where most of the models are projecting some extreme precipitation amounts. With 12hr FFG Showing this area needing 1.8-2" of rainfall for a flooding thread, I wonder how bad the situation will get when they end up with 5 times that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Got back from Montauk Point yesterday. Probably won't be too bad for Long Island. More concerned over freshwater issues here and some wind too. I have been talking with Cap this AM...thinking seems to be solid 5-7 inches for most of our DMA along with higher amts over higher elevations 10-12 inches possible here. We are doing a special NEWS10 in the AM Sunday at 6 am..well so much for vacation. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Raining here in New Paltz, what seems to be some rouge bands north of Irene's main outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Raining here in New Paltz, what seems to be some rouge bands north of Irene's main outer bands. Probably not. There is a returning/north lifting warm front to the north of the storm this combined with lift, heating, jet dynamics are all causing an area of predecessor rain fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 18z NAM continues it's trend of backing the sharp gradient of rainfall totals over CNY...other models keep the gradient 50 miles east....However.....ENY & EPA, your fate is sealed. Be safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.