mappy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like a good idea, I'm gonna go over to Jeff Masters' blog and start posting there instead, in addition to this banter thread. Of course I'll still lurk in the main thread, but I guess they really don't want the opinions of anybody less than a very experienced amateur.Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Riptide, post that again. I got this and the discussion thread confused lol, I was wondering what was going on. It's just for s**** and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like a good idea, I'm gonna go over to Jeff Masters' blog and start posting there instead, in addition to this banter thread. Of course I'll still lurk in the main thread, but I guess they really don't want the opinions of anybody less than a very experienced amateur. There's many knowledgeable people who lurk the main thread but don't post... I for one don't feel the need do write a couple of sentences and post an image of the 18z GFS when I know that I'll get a much better analysis from even more knowledgeable people when the big picture has been established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At weenies getting butthurt over posts getting deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have a question for the mets. Why is the GFS consistently initializing Irene with high central pressures? For example, 18z at initialization...1003mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sounds like a good idea, I'm gonna go over to Jeff Masters' blog and start posting there instead, in addition to this banter thread. Of course I'll still lurk in the main thread, but I guess they really don't want the opinions of anybody less than a very experienced amateur. Why are you getting all upset about the moderation in the main thread? I'm sure you made good points, and it felt like you added value, but consider it from the perspective of a panel type discussion. If you just let random voices from the crowd shout things out at will, the discussion would become less constructive, no? I think the mods are just clearing the clutter to keep the discussion focused and coherent. My point is don't "take your toys and go home", have some discussion here and read and learn from the main thread. Is that so bad? P.S, Having said all this, there were red taggers that bailed completely when the 12z gfs came out, so I do see your point in some regard... __________ Scary prospects for the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays in looking at the 18z gfs op... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/lmaosmiley.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> At weenies getting butthurt over posts getting deleted.But their thoughts count too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 But their thoughts count too! It's funny because I never PMed him about the deleted post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What you Guys think the impact will be in Maine If any ? I'm leaving North Carolina Saturday morning headed for Topsfield Maine, Going to be Bear hunting next week DON'T need RAIN... Any thoughts would be appreciated!!! Should note that Topsfield Maine is pretty far from everywhere, far eastern inland... Per the Euro best rain chance is Sunday overnight into Monday.. Gives me > 2" here in NH, but Bar Harbor and Houlton under 1" so at least right now doesn't appear to be a total disaster for that region. I wouldn't rule out a tropical impact up there, but I wouldn't worry enough to plan around it yet. I'd be more concerned about getting out of NC if you're anywhere near the coast. I'm sure things will change, so unless you have a hard deadline or something it's not worth worrying about too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Earl was a massive bust here, the wind gusts barely reached tropical storm force and Earl's inner-core disintegrated when it passed the Outer Banks. Your footage shows pretty good wave and swell action though. That was only a Category 1 hurricane when it passed east of New Jersey, expecting alot more from Irene in terms of impacts. I dont recall Earl being forecasted to make landfall in Jersey.. Tell us how it busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I dont recall Earl being forecasted to make landfall in Jersey.. Tell us how it busted lolz I just expecting some rain from the outer bands and TS winds, considering it was only 75 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just wondering what I may experience here just north of daytona .If Irene is a major hurricane and is 50-100 miles to my east will the east coast of florida still experience tropical storm conditions? just moved here from connecticut and the only hurricane I went through was gloria in 85 and was grazed by bob in 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS has moved a bit to the west.. Anyone have info on RECON yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18z GFS has moved a bit to the west.. Anyone have info on RECON yet? The plane moved a bit to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have a question for the mets. Why is the GFS consistently initializing Irene with high central pressures? For example, 18z at initialization...1003mb Global models have a tendency to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 meanwhile, the center is now over 160nm from the radar site and continues to look better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 for the 7,000 post club http://www.friendsof...-em-episode-164 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The plane moved a bit to the west. (sigh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 lolz I just expecting some rain from the outer bands and TS winds, considering it was only 75 miles off the coast. NHC has a cool page that shows the wind field radii.. you should check that out some time.. avoids future disappointments.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NHC has a cool page that shows the wind field radii.. you should check that out some time.. avoids future disappointments.. Well, yeah. The left-side of tropical cyclones always underperform unless there is some kind of topographic enhancement. Shouldn't you be busy buying bread & milk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just wondering what I may experience here just north of daytona .If Irene is a major hurricane and is 50-100 miles to my east will the east coast of florida still experience tropical storm conditions? just moved here from connecticut and the only hurricane I went through was gloria in 85 and was grazed by bob in 91. You should have a stellar hurricane preparedness supply just in case.. and extra TP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 My totally amateurish Irene-cast. Similar to NHC's thinking, kind of more EURO-ish with strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just wondering what I may experience here just north of daytona .If Irene is a major hurricane and is 50-100 miles to my east will the east coast of florida still experience tropical storm conditions? just moved here from connecticut and the only hurricane I went through was gloria in 85 and was grazed by bob in 91. I wouldn't sweat it or expect anything much.. the trees and houses there do not fail at low wind speeds and the storm (as forecast) is a long way away with you on the weak side it's nothing like bob and gloria up in ne with the tree, power, and structural wind damage during a tropical storm. In FL it's more about flooding until the wind gets a little higher. your only chance is getting it much closer than the official or ideally (if you like destruction) to your left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well, yeah. The left-side of tropical cyclones always underperform unless there is some kind of topographic enhancement. Shouldn't you be busy buying bread & milk? I'm like s boy scout, dude! Always prepared.. Shouldnt you be making sure mom's basement is ready for all that storm surge you're expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm like s boy scout, dude! Always prepared.. Shouldnt you be making sure mom's basement is ready for all that storm surge you're expecting? That wasn't nice.... Also, I don't live with my parents.....or in a basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Should note that Topsfield Maine is pretty far from everywhere, far eastern inland... Per the Euro best rain chance is Sunday overnight into Monday.. Gives me > 2" here in NH, but Bar Harbor and Houlton under 1" so at least right now doesn't appear to be a total disaster for that region. I wouldn't rule out a tropical impact up there, but I wouldn't worry enough to plan around it yet. I'd be more concerned about getting out of NC if you're anywhere near the coast. I'm sure things will change, so unless you have a hard deadline or something it's not worth worrying about too much yet. I'm in nw nc near Va. border. I plan on leaving around 9am Saturday, So hope I can be ahead of the storm coming up Saturday? We plan on stopping by Cabela's in Hamburg Pa. Saturday evening then on to Maine Saturday night... Thanks, for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well, yeah. The left-side of tropical cyclones always underperform unless there is some kind of topographic enhancement. Shouldn't you be busy buying bread & milk? To give the scientific explanation: You've got land friction and the TC storm motion negating the effects of the winds in the left side. Storm motion negates some of the wind (if the storm is moving at 10 mph the left side will effectively have 10 mph weaker winds) and land friction can reduce wind speeds dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm like s boy scout, dude! Always prepared.. Shouldnt you be making sure mom's basement is ready for all that storm surge you're expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 My totally amateurish Irene-cast. Similar to NHC's thinking, kind of more EURO-ish with strength. Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 To give the scientific explanation: You've got land friction and the TC storm motion negating the effects of the winds in the left side. Storm motion negates some of the wind (if the storm is moving at 10 mph the left side will effectively have 10 mph weaker winds) and land friction can reduce wind speeds dramatically. <3 Ellinwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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