Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 18Z GFS is close to extratropical over NE It's a butiful looking hybrid system. The storm stalls off the carolinas and the latent heat keeps jacking up heights to the east of the storm and creating it's own steering flow. The also shortens the EC troff enough to allow for Baroclinic cyclogenesis over New England. However I still have faith that models will come east and offshore in this pattern. I don't think a zonal flow is going to get it's butt kicked by the storm so easily. We aren't in fantasyland anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 in nhc's 5pm update they said " THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST." is this what the gfs showed as well? what are the implications if the models continue to amplify it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There's going to be a lot of hemming and hauling regarding this system. It's likely a crap chute as to a definite west trend, but if I were to hazard a guess, the models will pull the rug right out from under us, as it is their moses operandi. Glad to see the mets here use actual analysis and not cow tow to the models and making them an escape goat. Personally, I'm hoping Irene goes for the juggler and hits Cat 5 status. Now that's what I call going for the juggalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We aren't in fantasyland anymore. Anyone who tells you they aren't fantasizing about this storm is a liar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 in nhc's 5pm update they said " THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE WEST." is this what the gfs showed as well? what are the implications if the models continue to amplify it? Total devistation to NYC and the rest of the 1-95 coridor from Philly to Boston , tons and tons of trees down and well as massive power outages (millions of people) and probably 100s if not 1000's of deaths because people arnt going to take this storm seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yes, great, we'll have tropical storm force winds and heavy rain... basically what we've already been having for the past few weeks except a little windier. THAT warrants one step away from catastrophic?? What are you talking about ? If the storm follows the ECMWF track, there would be major storm surge and major inland flooding.When have we had that in the past few weeks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Total devistation to NYC and the rest of the 1-95 coridor from Philly to Boston , tons and tons of trees down and well as massive power outages (millions of people) and probably 100s if not 1000's of deaths because people arnt going to take this storm seriously. 1000's of deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What are you talking about ? If the storm follows the ECMWF track, there would be major storm surge and major inland flooding.When have we had that is the past few weeks ? Well, we'll see, I guess. I just think it's a little early to be making that call off of one run off of one model. And to Kush - I don't like hype. Don't know why you think I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1000's of deaths? Without a manditory evac in NYC theres over 8 million people there. Many of them will not leave thinking theyre too far north for a hurricane to hit or whatever. You have tons of high rises that could potentialy have all their windows blown out. The glass flying around alone would probably kill 100s of people and were not even to the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1000's of deaths? Yeah...... I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1000's of deaths? The weekend is coming, beaches crowded, and... yeah, that's probably a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Total devistation to NYC and the rest of the 1-95 coridor from Philly to Boston , tons and tons of trees down and well as massive power outages (millions of people) and probably 100s if not 1000's of deaths because people arnt going to take this storm seriously. I fully expect the empire state bldg to be snaped in haf and its needle thrown threw madson sqr grden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I fully expect the empire state bldg to be snaped in haf and its needle thrown threw madson sqr grden That would make an awesome scene for a disaster movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I fully expect the empire state bldg to be snaped in haf and its needle thrown threw madson sqr grden Didn't Cloverfield do that? Oh wait, that was with the Statue of Liberty lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I fully expect the empire state bldg to be snaped in haf and its needle thrown threw madson sqr grden Thatd be totally sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How long until the misleading news headline "Category 4 Hurricane Irene Heading for the Northeast" without any mention of it weakening before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Well, we'll see, I guess. I just think it's a little early to be making that call off of one run off of one model. And to Kush - I don't like hype. Don't know why you think I do. It's not one run of one model, almost every single model has been coming west since 06z this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the worst case scenario comes to pass, could be one of the largest weather related power outages in US history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I fully expect the empire state bldg to be snaped in haf and its needle thrown threw madson sqr grden All this talk about falling debris and building needles reminded me of this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZn6SMr9J1A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 As long as it destroys the New Toilet, I'll be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If the worst case scenario comes to pass, could be one of the largest weather related power outages in US history. yeah but it will lessen server load a good bit when nyc and sne go out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 yeah but it will lessen server load a good bit when nyc and sne go out I actually thought of that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The one positive that will come from this monster: Irene is going to blow Jimmy and Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1000's of deaths? Lots of people pumping out their ridges out ahead of the storm ... that kind of thing can lead to mass causalities. Look how many people died during the Rita evacuations. And that was before the precaution of emptying out crap chutes had become Dee Rigor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Like most women, they make us crazy.. Nice little sexist dig there PINHOLE EYE!! IS THAT A PINHOLE EYE?! THAT'S A PINHOLE EYE GUYS! hope ya got some clean skivvies dude! Not nice truth hurts, baby.. Their bumper music sounds like it was programmed by a club kid sucking on a binky at limelight NYC circa 2000. It's awful. There's going to be a lot of hemming and hauling regarding this system. It's likely a crap chute as to a definite west trend, but if I were to hazard a guess, the models will pull the rug right out from under us, as it is their moses operandi. Glad to see the mets here use actual analysis and not cow tow to the models and making them an escape goat. Personally, I'm hoping Irene goes for the juggler and hits Cat 5 status. nipped that right in the butt.. Nicely done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If Irene continues to trend west, the first major landfall may be NC. The Outer Banks and coastal regions are not desolate strands of sand anymore. The area has become very developed with some multimillion dollar homes...many of which are sitting within spitting distance of the water. It's a no brainer that Highway 12 will disappear and there are some areas where new inlets may appear, depending on how strong the storm is when it hits. 'How bout some maps showing the locations of Irene near NC along with the visuals of the Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The one positive that will come from this monster: Irene is going to blow Jimmy and Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Thatd be totally sick. Members on this board don't get sarcasm. Oh wait aren't you the kid on eastern that started the stupid thread that your dad was drunk and was going to beat you up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Members on this board don't get sarcasm. Oh wait aren't you the kid on eastern that started the stupid thread that your dad was drunk and was going to beat you up? Yeah, whats your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 How long until the misleading news headline "Category 4 Hurricane Irene Heading for the Northeast" without any mention of it weakening before landfall? I can already see the big fat red arrow on one of Accuwx's dumb promo maps pointing Irene right at NYC..."PANTS CRAPPINGLY CATASTROPHIC MEGA-HURRICANE IRENE AIMS FOR NORTHEAST" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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