k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So what's your forecast? I have been lurking and the climo map is more substantive than anything you have provided (basicly just putting down others). I don't have this perverse need to issue a forecast, draw crappy maps, watch the 84 hr NAM like a hawk, and clog up the main thread with posts no one wants to read...too many of you conflate posting your thoughts with making a contribution. As far as putting down others, someone needs to call out stupidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 which is why I posted it only in..............the banter thread! woo hoo! it's cool...do what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 it's cool...do what you will. And peace reigns in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's all a guessing game. Wait. Billions in taxpayer money and it comes down to a Magic 8 Ball? Michelle!!! Rick!!! Over here! I found some!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how come the GFS takes so long to initialize these days ? 11:45 ? geez... EDIT : It looks a tiny bit more SW at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 how come the GFS takes so long to initialize these days ? 11:45 ? geez... I've got it out to hr27... must just be you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I can't wait for this storm to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't predict she was going to Florida, and there are 3 general tracks ID'd in the NOAA graphic I posted. also, climo for August favors recurves because of the overall dynamics of the atmosphere. science trumps weenie wishcasting. To me in this post you are calling out everyone who went against climo as a weenie wishcast.. Isn't that the NHC and pretty much everyone else in that group? Not saying that's a bad thing, perhaps climo is given too little weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I've got it out to hr27... must just be you true.. The only good thing about Standard Time = we start gettin em at 10:30 again. 50 miles more SW at 30 hours. noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 To me in this post you are calling out everyone who went against climo as a weenie wishcast.. Isn't that the NHC and pretty much everyone else in that group? Not saying that's a bad thing, perhaps climo is given too little weight Climatology is only a novelty when it comes to looking at individual storms. If anyone seriously takes climatology into consideration over computer models, et al., they shouldn't be taken too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I can't wait for this storm to end Wait, you thought the banter thread would devolve into reasoned discourse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 true.. The only good thing about Standard Time = we start gettin em at 10:30 again. 50 miles more SW at 30 hours. noice. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=GFS&area=NAMER&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE GO THERE! Cause you are about 15 hours behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like New Orleans better watch out for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 "calling out" would mean I had an inkling of what anyone other than the NHS is predicting for this storm, although I guess njpaweather is calling for 3 separate 100+ kph landfalls along the East coast. I just think it's likely to be a fish even though my first post on Irene openly wished for a DC hit. now, now guys... The big winner with this storm has been AccuWeather so far : Accuweather : Hurricane Irene will strike Florida Accuweather : Hurricane Irene will strike South Carolina Accuweather : Hurricane Irene will strike North Carolina and then today they carry on like all their predictions came true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Climatology is only a novelty when it comes to looking at individual storms. If anyone seriously takes climatology into consideration over computer models, et al., they shouldn't be taken too seriously. I don't think you can ever throw it out fully. It shouldn't be the basis if a forecast tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Wait, you thought the banter thread would devolve into reasoned discourse? It's not this thread... These long track systems are tiring and almost never live up to their potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't think you can ever throw it out fully. It shouldn't be the basis if a forecast tho. IMO it becomes useful when looking at groups of storms/monthly/seasonal averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IMO it becomes useful when looking at groups of storms/monthly/seasonal averages. I don't think a climo forecast is wise in itself but people who know climo are typically much better forecasters and are not blindly led by every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Climatology is only a novelty when it comes to looking at individual storms. If anyone seriously takes climatology into consideration over computer models, et al., they shouldn't be taken too seriously. Point taken and I understand what you're saying.. I still feel like in this case the models pointed towards some solutions against climo while they shifted from one climo favored track to another (FL -> Cape/Recurve). I'm not sure if there's anything worthwhile to take from that, but at least interesting to me how this evolved so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't think a climo forecast is wise in itself but people who know climo are typically much better forecasters and are not blindly led by every model run. Going by model runs taken into context within each other over a period of time is the superior forecasting method, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Going by model runs taken into context within each other over a period of time is the superior forecasting method, however. I guess. We might be arguing two sides of the same coin. I'm certainly not one of those people who says models are useless. But there are things we can generally expect with a storm in different places that 9 times out of 10, due to climo knowledge, will work out. Even in a "great setup" or whatnot we have seen plenty of east shifts which is a climo norm IMO. I don't have the time to pull up so many definitive statements made here the last few days how it "cant do this or that" because what models showed only to see it do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OMG IT'S WEST!!! DC WILL BE HAMMERED!!! DCA: 12-18 IAD: 14-20 More in higher elevations north and west. I think drifting may be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OMG IT'S WEST!!! DC WILL BE HAMMERED!!! the fish with arms! i love that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OMG IT'S WEST!!! DC WILL BE HAMMERED!!! Its okay the earthquake created huge fissures in the ground which will absorb all the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd be pretty stoked if I lived on the east coast in anything but a garden apartment, looks like a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I guess. We might be arguing two sides of the same coin. I'm certainly not one of those people who says models are useless. But there are things we can generally expect with a storm in different places that 9 times out of 10, due to climo knowledge, will work out. Even in a "great setup" or whatnot we have seen plenty of east shifts which is a climo norm IMO. I don't have the time to pull up so many definitive statements made here the last few days how it "cant do this or that" because what models showed only to see it do so. Yeah, there are general "most likely tracks" which trix's image alluded to, and they can be useful 9 times out of 10 in a very general sense (i.e. recurve doesn't mean a TC is going to dive south and "recurve" into Venezuela)... but each individual storm has its own set of circumstances and atmosphere to deal with. That general recurve path in trix's image could be sharper or flatter, further left or further right... which I don't think came across in her post. That said, when you combine both and look at model history to say something on the order of "model x at time y generally has some z bias, so we are going to correct the forecast to compensate for it"... there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, and it is in fact quite useful/intelligent to do so provided the forecaster has a sufficient understanding of said model's history. With Irene, a balance had to be struck with the GFS' recent history of overdoing recurves/underforecasting the ridge the past two years versus the overall models' underforecasting of recurves of specific east coast-tracked storms... and I think that is where the main difficulty of understanding lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's not this thread... These long track systems are tiring and almost never live up to their potential. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'd be pretty stoked if I lived on the east coast in anything but a garden apartment, looks like a fun storm. Chase it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 100% agree we need a 1/2 size of the gulf in the gulf storm asap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 100% agree mentally exhausted as well.. can't wait for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.