klw Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does anyone have a link that has the XTRAP for Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ugh. This thread reads like the day before the boxing day blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does anyone have a link that has the XTRAP for Irene? The xtrap model is antiquated and overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 well Euro and GFS are offshore if the OBX. I heard TWC that models sometimes act like windshield wipers and often to east and west. I'll only be concerned with it 48 hours before it hits. From MHX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does anyone have a link that has the XTRAP for Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know it isn't a model. I am just curious to see what it would look like. Sorry I didn't make that clear. You can go back to important avatar banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does anyone have a link that has the XTRAP for Irene? Make it yourself... here's the only tool that you'll need: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know it isn't a model. I am just curious to see what it would look like. Sorry I didn't make that clear. You can go back to important avatar banter. Being as though I wasn't involved in avatar banter, not sure what you're talking about. But I dunno, we should probably make a thread for instructions on drawing a line on a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Being as though I wasn't involved in avatar banter, not sure what you're talking about. But I dunno, we should probably make a thread for instructions on drawing a line on a map? Sounds easy enough until you have to draw the 3 and 5 day cones of uncertainty. That's two more lines and just adds to the difficulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Does anyone have a link that has the XTRAP for Irene? The extrapolation is always included in these model plots: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 this bears repeating: ....why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 history generally triumphs over hype. Then look at the CLIPPER if that's what your heart desires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 this bears repeating: History absolutely triumphs over hype, if you have large sample sizes. If you look at Uncle W's thread, the sample size for August TCs in Irene's area is about 10, and some of those data points are from old storms with low confidence in the data. Forecasting anything based on a sample size of 10 is basically pointless. Case in point, Irene is on or a little south of the Florida track and definitely not headed to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 History absolutely triumphs over hype, if you have large sample sizes. If you look at Uncle W's thread, the sample size for August TCs in Irene's area is about 10, and some of those data points are from old storms with low confidence in the data. Forecasting anything based on a sample size of 10 is basically pointless. Case in point, Irene is on or a little south of the Florida track and definitely not headed to Florida. Maximum logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 thanks! I call her "Irene". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Maximum logic. Trixie unfortunately makes a good point: Storms originating where Irene did and being in the area Irene currently is in do recurve or make a glancing blow more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Nam might suck for track, but the sim radar eye sure looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The extrapolation is always included in these model plots: http://euler.atmos.c...~vigh/guidance/ thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Trixie unfortunately makes a good point: Storms originating where Irene did and being in the area Irene currently is in do recurve or make a glancing blow more often than not. The only certainties in life are death, taxes and hurricanes re-curving. The question of 'when' is what makes life interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't think there has been a single NHC forecast position that this storm has not been right of. Fish is still the most likely outcome despite king Euro saying otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Trixie unfortunately makes a good point: not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't predict she was going to Florida, and there are 3 general tracks ID'd in the NOAA graphic I posted. also, climo for August favors recurves because of the overall dynamics of the atmosphere. science trumps weenie wishcasting. climo is gawx level stuff...even if she recurves posting the NHC mean august tracks isn't that relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 climo is gawx level stuff...even if she recurves posting the NHC mean august tracks isn't that relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't predict she was going to Florida, and there are 3 general tracks ID'd in the NOAA graphic I posted. also, climo for August favors recurves because of the overall dynamics of the atmosphere. science trumps weenie wishcasting. I'm not disagreeing with your last point, just noting that Irene is much closer to the mean Florida track then the mean recurve track. I note those graphics show both mean paths and--to some extent--variation around those means. The variation is just as important as the mean. You are in effect arguing that even though Irene is currently on the mean of the Florida track, you think a better prediction is to think of it as being on the left-hand tail of the distribution around the mean of the recurve track. Fair enough. Here's the challenge in using small n historical samples with limited data. Suppose you are interested in finding a college for your kid. You have lots of data about post-baccalaureate life course performance of graduating students. That's great. However you only care about your kid - the mean isn't important to you, only where your kid is likely to end up on the distribution. Now imagine that you have lots of information about your kid but very little informantion about school performance, and less about the relationship between your kids attribtues and expected school performance. That's about where we are with Irene. History is fine, if there's lots of it. here thereis not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not really. So you dont think it will fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didn't predict she was going to Florida, and there are 3 general tracks ID'd in the NOAA graphic I posted. also, climo for August favors recurves because of the overall dynamics of the atmosphere. science trumps weenie wishcasting. To bad the folks along the Jersey shore in 1903 are not around to hear your encouraging news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So you dont think it will fish? it may or may not....regardless of what that brightly colored climo map that adds very little to the substance of the discussion shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfman23601 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 it may or may not....regardless of what that brightly colored climo map that adds very little to the substance of the discussion shows. So what's your forecast? I have been lurking and the climo map is more substantive than anything you have provided (basicly just putting down others). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 it may or may not....regardless of what that brightly colored climo map that adds very little to the substance of the discussion shows. At this point it seems to make the most sense to just sit back and see what Irene herself does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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