Hurricane Irene Banter Thread

[eekuasepinniW]

technically i suppose a loon is a duck, no?

Technically it's not.

[eekuasepinniW]

this banter thread is worse than thanksgiving with my family.

[Isopycnic]

Rain and wind, WOO WOO WOO YOU KNOW IT.

YOu aren't going to get a date by talking this way. Rob.

[Scotty Lightning]

YOu aren't going to get a date by talking this way. Rob.

If he downplays the storm then girls may flock to him for safety. It may work out for him.

[A-L-E-K]

Ivanhater needs to drop in and show yall how to really rock a duck face

[AmyB]

Indeed. If he really wants one, he should fly out to the pacific and experience a super typhoon. If he survives, he can tell us all about it.

that would be a hell of a weenie tale, wouldn't it?

If it hits NJ the damage could be in the tens of dollars.

Can someone speculate for me if the current track of NHC verifies verbatim, what would the implications for LI be, in regard to wind, rain and storm surge? Just speculations or opinions. Please.

worse thing one can do is ask for the board to speculate.. it's on the level of the morality debate every time a tropical storm is close to the US..

best to just be prepared for whatever happens..

I'm 99% sure Irene won't miss Cape Cod but it will be a flopping pile of crap when it gets up there. If it does fish, not seeing a better synoptic setup for EC landfall later this season, and probably not for the next 10 years.

i'll keep that in mind..

[JamieOber]

this banter thread is worse than thanksgiving with my family.

[Floydbuster]

[free_man]

Would a slower moving cane provide a better chance of storm surge flooding because of coinciding with high tides? Or would the lack of forward speed possibly negate any possible alignment?

For fear of being banned for asking this in the "main" thread I'll ask here...

[Floydbuster]

For fear of being banned for asking this in the "main" thread I'll ask here...

In all seriousness, I feel that the forward motion could add to the surge, especially if Irene maintains major hurricane intensity to the latitude of Cape Hatteras. I think if it misses landfall, which seems increasingly likely, then the winds coming around on the right side of Irene may cause water to pile up in northern Long Island, ect.

[free_man]

In all seriousness, I feel that the forward motion could add to the surge, especially if Irene maintains major hurricane intensity to the latitude of Cape Hatteras. I think if it misses landfall, which seems increasingly likely, then the winds coming around on the right side of Irene may cause water to pile up in northern Long Island, ect.

Well forward motion does add to surge and wind that is fact.

My question is , whether the max surge right with the eyewall (or if dissipated by then, center) is slower to move through and therefore has less of a chance of missing/moving through at a highr-tide.

A problem with the typical hurricane, up here, is that it is a crapshoot whether in that 2-4 hour passage of the eyewall into the coast is at a high or low tide, which makes a huge difference in surge. A 15-20mph moving storm is not a 50mph moving hurricane with regards to timing these things.

[Floydbuster]

Well forward motion does add to surge and wind that is fact.

My question is , whether the max surge right with the eyewall (or if dissipated by then, center) is slower to move through and therefore has less of a chance of missing/moving through at a highr-tide.

A problem with the typical hurricane, up here, is that it is a crapshoot whether in that 2-4 hour passage of the eyewall into the coast is at a high or low tide, which makes a huge difference in surge. A 15-20mph moving storm is not a 50mph moving hurricane with regards to timing these things.

Now you know why I track hurricanes and not winter storms as much. Once you get into high latitudes, mid-latitude troughs, insane forward speeds, extra-tropical transitions....it becomes a totally different beast.

Irene will probably be a larger hurricane by the time it gets north, but it all depends on whether or not it actually makes landfall in North Carolina and how strong. The surge could be punched into Hatteras and be less, or all be built up for New England.

[free_man]

Now you know why I track hurricanes and not winter storms as much. Once you get into high latitudes, mid-latitude troughs, insane forward speeds, extra-tropical transitions....it becomes a totally different beast.

Irene will probably be a larger hurricane by the time it gets north, but it all depends on whether or not it actually makes landfall in North Carolina and how strong. The surge could be punched into Hatteras and be less, or all be built up for New England.

Looks like a quick east hook is most likely track , which would make all of this a moot point.

I'm glad not to have ever bought into those awful model runs bringing this into the FL-SC. Initially prior to the storm developing, it looked as though the Gulf or FL was a legit threat. However once the storm was developing and showing it's cards, you could clearly see the models were going to continually be playing catch up.

Anyone actively benchmarking should have at least been concerned every model was initially poorly with size, strength, and location. Once the system passed the Leeward Islands and the models were still showing the same west track, the medium range models were clearly crap and the eastern track was the only way to go,

i'm really surprised more people didn't speak up.

I think the new "big brother" approach to moderation didn't help, too. Oh well

[Floydbuster]

Looks like a quick east hook is most likely track , which would make all of this a moot point.

I'm glad not to have ever bought into those awful model runs bringing this into the FL-SC. Initially prior to the storm developing, it looked as though the Gulf or FL was a legit threat. However once the storm was developing and showing it's cards, you could clearly see the models were going to continually be playing catch up.

Anyone actively benchmarking should have at least been concerned every model was initially poorly with size, strength, and location. Once the system passed the Leeward Islands and the models were still showing the same west track, the medium range models were clearly crap and the eastern track was the only way to go,

i'm really surprised more people didn't speak up.

I think the new "big brother" approach to moderation didn't help, too. Oh well

As I mentioned previously, the computer models have performed horribly in my opinion with Irene, taking it from Miami to West Palm to Charleston to Cape Hatteras to Long Island to Cape Cod to potentially avoiding landfall all together. It's not the job of hurricane computer models to follow a storm, it's the job of the computer models to forecast a storm. It's like asking someone to help you move, and they show up only to follow you as you carry everything yourself.

[k***]

lol @ the big brother whines.

[isohume]

As I mentioned previously, the computer models have performed horribly in my opinion with Irene, taking it from Miami to West Palm to Charleston to Cape Hatteras to Long Island to Cape Cod to potentially avoiding landfall all together. It's not the job of hurricane computer models to follow a storm, it's the job of the computer models to forecast a storm. It's like asking someone to help you move, and they show up only to follow you as you carry everything yourself.

The computer models have performed objectively, not horribly.

[k***]

The computer models have performed objectively, not horribly.

It was obvious to birving that the NHC was out to lunch with this.

[Floydbuster]

The NHC has done a fantastic job. Model guidance is tricky, no doubt. Even when the models get a bias, they don't always hold on to it. The eastward bias the models had with Hurricane Earl this year they didn't have with Hurricane Igor. It's all a guessing game.

[k***]

If you just wait for a storm to show its cards you can crush the models and not get sucked into unlikely scenarios such as landfall in areas the are more climatologically favored than the northeast.

[gump]

It looks very possible that Irene's greatest impact along the NJ coast this weekend will be keeping many benny's from going to the shore

[Floydbuster]

It looks very possible that Irene's greatest impact along the NJ coast this weekend will be keeping many benny's from going to the shore

What's a benny?

[gump]

What's a benny?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benny_(slang)

[jayson]

What's a benny?

Acronymn that us locals use to describe people who visit from Bayonne Elizabeth Newark New York (aka snookie)

[hazwoper]

What's a benny?

Wiki (I am a Shoobie )

Benny is a derogatory term used by year-round residents of New Jersey to describe summer-only residents who descend upon the area from northern New Jersey cities and New York. It is often said to be an acronym for some of the places that the tourists (hence B,E,N,NY) come from.^[1] Now it applies to any non-resident during the summer months, when roads, stores, beaches, and restaurants are more crowded due to the influx of tourists. The term is predominantly used by year-round residents of the beachfront towns of Ocean County and Monmouth County.

The term 'Shoobie' is used by residents of resort communities in the southern New Jersey Shore, from Long Beach Island to Cape May. The term shoobie was originally used to describe day-trippers who took the train to the shore. The train offered pre-packed lunches that came in shoe boxes; hence the term "shoobie." However, over time the meaning has changed to include tourists that wear sneakers or shoes on the beach, as opposed to most locals who go barefoot on the sand.

[isohume]

The NHC has done a fantastic job. Model guidance is tricky, no doubt. Even when the models get a bias, they don't always hold on to it. The eastward bias the models had with Hurricane Earl this year they didn't have with Hurricane Igor. It's all a guessing game.

This "eastward bias" in the models has more to do with climatology than an actual model bias. If you look at historical tracks for this time of year, you'll notice most storms get picked up by deepening trofs. August is generally a transition time for many large scale waves and the models pick up on this eventually. They keep more of a "climo pattern" run to run.

[free_man]

lol @ the big brother whines.

How was that a whine? Interesting perception..

[Bluescat1]

What's a benny?

A tourist who visits the Jersey shore from Bayonne, Elizabeth, Newark, or New York (or anywhere near these places.) These tourists pollute the beaches and are rude to the local.

[eekuasepinniW]

What's a benny?

I think it's a tourist who visits the jersey shore from Bayonne, Elizabeth, Newark, or New York but I'm not certain.

[free_man]

As I mentioned previously, the computer models have performed horribly in my opinion with Irene, taking it from Miami to West Palm to Charleston to Cape Hatteras to Long Island to Cape Cod to potentially avoiding landfall all together. It's not the job of hurricane computer models to follow a storm, it's the job of the computer models to forecast a storm. It's like asking someone to help you move, and they show up only to follow you as you carry everything yourself.

The computer models are guidance....in the context you use, they are more there to forecast where the boxes should go as a "placement plan" on the move, rather than actually help physically move the boxes. Moving the boxes is where you need make the decision as to whether the model plan has any credibility or to make adjustments.

I think they have been okay thus far...taking into account the usual chaos.

[AmyB]

it's the job of the human forecaster to analyze the data and forecast the storm. a model is just one tool that is used.

if it were as simple as picking a computer model's scenario, then people wouldn't spend 4 or more years learning about chemistry, math, physics, and oceanography.

your avatar is stellar