USN Ben Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow, this is just about the one weekend of the entire year that the last thing I want is a hurricane. I was scheduled to go on leave and return home for the first time in 6 months, but instead the Navy decided to cancel all leave and forcibly evacuate us. Ouch. Figures, any other time and I'd be having a weeniegasm all over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 you belong five posted, or better yet, banned Except he knows what he's talking about.. I can see how that woul upset someone like yourself.. Don't know why people are ''Praying'' for a cat 5 hurricane...living without power for 2-3 weeks sucks just ask the people in new orleans. The good Lord above does not answer these sort of prayers.. And please get off the zOMG train of morality.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 latest recon is 969mb with 10 kt of wind...fail? maybe. Pulsing up pretty nice right now, that's for sure. We'll see. I'm a little wary of the SHIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 maybe. Pulsing up pretty nice right now, that's for sure. We'll see. I'm a little wary of the SHIPS Of a pure statistical model that should be discounted at this point with respect to intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I want to see the reporters falling over in 60 mph winds. That boardwalk and all that rain and wind makes it slick...actually I've been in 60 mph nor'easter winds and it's actually hard to stand straight up. Try that and trying to hear your ifb in your ear and hold a mic lol. Not as easy as it looks:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Of a pure statistical model that should be discounted at this point with respect to intensity? why? SHIPS has decent skill scores for intensity forecasts. We aren't good at forecasting intensity...but SHIPS is one of the best tools we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 why? SHIPS has decent skill scores for intensity forecasts. We aren't good at forecasting intensity...but SHIPS is one of the best tools we have. Typically sure, but this is probably going to be a situation where the storm will probably intensify as it moves NW through the Bahamas toward the Carolinas, where as other storms would typically be on the downswing in climatological terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Typically sure, but this is probably going to be a situation where the storm will intensify as it moves NW where as other storms would typically be on the downswing in climatological terms. how does that affect the SHIPS guidance? I'm a little confused. The SHIPS diagnoses shear, shear direction, OHC, SST, 700-500mb RH etc. from the GFS forecast. It's not the CLP5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 how does that affect the SHIPS guidance? I'm a little confused. The SHIPS diagnoses shear, shear direction, OHC, SST, 700-500mb RH etc. from the GFS forecast. It's not the CLP5. Also uses climatology from the GFS too. So it does matter some. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/model_summary_20090724.pdf Page 7 has the SHIPS model summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Also uses climatology from the GFS too. So it does matter some. I'm not saying climatology doesn't affect it at all...it derived its predictors from a data set to determine which were beneficial and which were detrimental to intensification...but the dynamical factors are derived from the GFS forecast. It doesn't have an intense hurricane because it sees both dry air between 700 and 500mb from the GFS and shear from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not saying climatology doesn't affect it at all...it derived its predictors from a data set to determine which were beneficial and which were detrimental to intensification...but the dynamical factors are derived from the GFS forecast. It doesn't have an intense hurricane because it sees both dry air between 700 and 500mb from the GFS and shear from the GFS. No I understand that but can not discount climo either, I am pretty sure there aren't too many hurricanes that have strengthened as it moved NW/N through that area. Plus who is to say the GFS is right either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's interesting that they found the upper tropospheric temp to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 2-3 years w/o power if Katrina were a cat 5 upon arrival into the Big Easy. And why not ride out a sick hurricane? You only live and die once. The "moral" debate again.... Some people jump out of airplanes, some ride rollercoasters, others bungee off bridges... or hope for a cat 5 to crush them. It was a cat 5 in the gulf, but it wasn't a category 5 when it made landfall in LA or MS, and believe it or not was ONLY a category 2/3 when it made landfall in south MS. New Orleans only sustained about category 1 winds. What destroyed New Orleans was the surge because it went over the levies and stayed in the city for a month. What destroyed the MS gulf coast was the 20-30 foot surge. The wind did a bit of damage all the way into TN, but the storm surge did worse. This is in no way a post to downplay Katrina, as I'm a vet of it and I never want to see it again. It's to clarify that as bad as things were, they could have been much worse, and might be again - therefore it is unwise to wish for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No I understand that but can not discount climo either, I am pretty sure there aren't too many hurricanes that have strengthened as it moved NW/N through that area. Plus who is to say the GFS is right either? I don't think the SHIPS actually cares or knows where the hurricane is. It's using a data set for all the storms since 1982...so it doesn't have different predictors for east coast storms vs. gulf storms. It does not account for storm motion. The GFS could definitely be wrong, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's interesting that they found the upper tropospheric temp to be significant. Yeah that is definitely a link for the bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Of a pure statistical model that should be discounted at this point with respect to intensity? Do you just assume statistical = bad? SHIPS employs several regressions on SSTs, OHC, shear magnitude and direction, upper level temperatures, divergence, relative humidity ... you get the idea. It's been reliable in the past, and so far very reliable for this storm too. Sooo, discounting it just because you feel like forecasting a major hurricane would be a mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I don't think the SHIPS actually cares or knows where the hurricane is. It's using a data set for all the storms since 1982...so it doesn't have different predictors for east coast storms vs. gulf storms. The GFS could definitely be wrong. Yeah, if I'm wrong I'll eat crow, but at this point I am not buying the SHIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Except he knows what he's talking about.. I can see how that woul upset someone like yourself.. The good Lord above does not answer these sort of prayers.. And please get off the zOMG train of morality.. Indeed. If he really wants one, he should fly out to the pacific and experience a super typhoon. If he survives, he can tell us all about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No I understand that but can not discount climo either, I am pretty sure there aren't too many hurricanes that have strengthened as it moved NW/N through that area. Plus who is to say the GFS is right either? Seriously, you make it sound like climo is 50% of the model. It's not going to make a 20kt difference in intensity based solely on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's interesting that they found the upper tropospheric temp to be significant. Yeah, that's one of the biggest negatives showing up right now. It could be related to the tropopause height, also the efficiency of the hurricane as a pseudo carnot heat engine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, if I'm wrong I'll eat crow, but at this point I am not buying the SHIPS. I hope it's wrong...but I can't find enough reason to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Recons are doing the rare double pass pretty much on top of each other...Kermit at 750mb, HHs at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I am trying to find an old post from the main Irene thread... I thought it would be somewhere between the end of part 2 and the beginning of part 3. Either I missed it or it was (unfortunately) deleted. I think the comment was made by a Met in NC about the atmospheric dynamics that make the difference between an Irene and a Fran or a Hugo. He said something about a conveyor belt and how storms in the same predicament as Irene rarely make strong landfalls into Carolina. I have been reading NHC documents about Fran but I also wanted to talk the the Met that made that comment. I hope he sees this. I'm not looking for vindication for weenie dreams, but I would love to discuss old storms and what makes them move the way they do. His post was more than worthy for the discussion, I hope it wasn't deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It misses, I'm coming after you first. If it hits NJ the damage could be in the tens of dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For anyone who is thinking about chasing this hurricane should think twice about stepping food on the outer banks. I went with earl and for 60-70mph gusts and it was down right miserable and scary. The storm surge covered roads and I almost became trapped. And the sand dunes blew on into the road, this caused me to be stranded for 2 days. I can not imagine how bad it could be if a cat 3 or 4 hit. Do not chase anywhere near highway 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ADT's gettin' all excited CI# /Pressure/ Vmax: 4.4 / 973.1mb/ 74.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.4 4.7 6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For anyone who is thinking about chasing this hurricane should think twice about stepping food on the outer banks. I went with earl and for 60-70mph gusts and it was down right miserable and scary. The storm surge covered roads and I almost became trapped. And the sand dunes blew on into the road, this caused me to be stranded for 2 days. I can not imagine how bad it could be if a cat 3 or 4 hit. Do not chase anywhere near highway 12. Excellent advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 We recently had a HUGE thunderstorm in Knoxville that created the biggest outage in KUB history. Power was out for a day or two but at least I had water. Even without power for that long is enough to have to clean out the fridge/freezer, which is a major headache and a good dent on the wallet. Granted, a weak hurricane or tropical storm isn't too bad, but all it takes is for something to cut off your power and water for more than 3 days and you'll sober up pretty quick. If it happens for a week or longer, you sure won't forget it. I've been without power for that long, longer actually.....freezer stuff is fine....fridge stuff no, Maybe time to buy a new freezer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For anyone who is thinking about chasing this hurricane should think twice about stepping food on the outer banks. I went with earl and for 60-70mph gusts and it was down right miserable and scary. The storm surge covered roads and I almost became trapped. And the sand dunes blew on into the road, this caused me to be stranded for 2 days. I can not imagine how bad it could be if a cat 3 or 4 hit. Do not chase anywhere near highway 12. I chased it too but we fortunately got out that morning. I agree though an OBX chase is essentially a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 For anyone who is thinking about chasing this hurricane should think twice about stepping food on the outer banks. I went with earl and for 60-70mph gusts and it was down right miserable and scary. The storm surge covered roads and I almost became trapped. And the sand dunes blew on into the road, this caused me to be stranded for 2 days. I can not imagine how bad it could be if a cat 3 or 4 hit. Do not chase anywhere near highway 12. Yeah I've stayed at the Sea Foam motel and thought it was pretty alarming on a breezy fall day at high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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