Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nominate it for the best weenie post. you should probably re-read some of your own the past few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Earl crossed 75. Irene is going to cross 75W at 25N and approach 78W later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 you should probably re-read some of your own the past few days... My first call was for this to make landfall in NC, still seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 At least some of the not very knowledgeable have found the Banter thread. Too bad Batlebrick and a few others haven't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 At least some of the not very knowledgeable have found the Banter thread. Too bad Batlebrick and a few others haven't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 At least some of the not very knowledgeable have found the Banter thread. Too bad Batlebrick and a few others haven't... hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 so where are people viewing the ECMWF forecats? i go to the ECMWF website, and it wants me to login to view them. is one of the tracks on the NCAR ensemble the ECMWF forecast? sorry for the dumb question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 so where are people viewing the ECMWF forecats? i go to the ECMWF website, and it wants me to login to view them. is one of the tracks on the NCAR ensemble the ECMWF forecast? sorry for the dumb question... http://raleighwx.ame...dels/ecmwf.html In other news, good ole weakening fish storm...joy. Time for my weenie tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The latest GFS run has Irene making a glancing blow at the NC Outer Banks. Lot's of beach erosion if that track holds, but with the trend eastward with each run, even that may not be an issue in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The latest GFS run has Irene making a glancing blow at the NC Outer Banks. Lot's of beach erosion if that track holds, but with the trend eastward with each run, even that may not be an issue in the future. Actually, the last GFS run had her go West...just a hair west but still West. Also you have to factor in that she is a bit weakened right now, and the weaker they are the less they pull north.....basically don't be surprised if the models jump her a little west again. Really, though it doesn't matter....if you are in the Cone you need to be preparing for a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Actually, the last GFS run had her go West...just a hair west but still West. Also you have to factor in that she is a bit weakened right now, and the weaker they are the less they pull north.....basically don't be surprised if the models jump her a little west again. Really, though it doesn't matter....if you are in the Cone you need to be preparing for a hurricane. People in the eastern half of WV are in the cone - should they be preparing for a hurricane? - I'm just kidding but still the cone shows where the track could be - not that a hurricane is possible in all parts of the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dry air really seems to be doing a number on Irene right now, at least according to ADT CI# /Pressure/ Vmax : 4.4 / 976.2mb/ 74.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# : 3.7 3.4 3.4 Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dry air really seems to be doing a number on Irene right now, at least according to ADT You can see where the mountains are squeezing out the moisture on the SW flanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Just wondering...is Irene moving WNW, NW or W....and is she on track with what she's supposed to be at this time, or more east or west of the track? To me, looks like she's moving more W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like she's on track to me, or close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 right now? no. just no. in some areas to be sure, but most of "the Cone" is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nominate it for the best weenie post. on the basis of quantity, perhaps.. not quality.. My theory is that, since the storm is already approaching 75W, it must make landfall somewhere in North America. i'd like to see all your supporting evidence for this claim.. that kind of logic is as useful as saying the NE is overdue for a 'cane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Since this is the banter thread, figured I'd post some banter If the 12Z GFS was to turn out to be correct, what type of conditions would you expect along the NJ coast? Based on the pressure and track, I am assuming this would still be a cat 2 cane and with its location as depicted I would think the coast would reach hurricane conditions easily? Also, with the new moon on Sunday, the tidal flooding in the back bays should be crazy as well as beach erosion, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 on the basis of quantity, perhaps.. not quality.. i'd like to see all your supporting evidence for this claim.. that kind of logic is as useful as saying the NE is overdue for a 'cane.. Still in denial? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Turn that dog collar around and be prepared for the ride in the left lane.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If your wife wants to go there and you don't definitely. Storm wise, due to the lack of high terrain, not so much. That made me chuckle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks to me like Irene may have bottomed out as far as the island's negative effects and is setting up for a period of increased strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Still in denial? if you're theory is so correct, you should easily be able to provide supporting evidence.. i'm always interested in learning new things, and i'd like you to show me some examples of guaranteed US landfalls simply because a storm passed 75W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 if you're theory is so correct, you should easily be able to provide supporting evidence.. i'm always interested in learning new things, and i'd like you to show me some examples of guaranteed US landfalls simply because a storm passed 75W I would like to start by explaining that my real reasoning for landfall is not based on climo. The synoptic setup is such that only a northward recurve is possible and if it's already at 70W, you know what's going to happen. Think Hurricane Edouard, but further west. I don't' have the upper-level maps form PSU for this, but it's probably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I would like to start by explaining that my real reasoning for landfall is not based on climo. The synoptic setup is such that only a northward recurve is possible and if it's already at 70W, you know what's going to happen. your signature is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 your signature is terrible It's blocky isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 old meme is old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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