WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There's nothing particularly unfavorable that's being shown though...right? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 None that I see, so it might not weaken as much as storms like Floyd, etc. But the drought conditions over parts of the SE and the large size of Irene argues for significant dry air entrainment prior to landfall. We've also seen this with Gulf Coast systems in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 There was nothing wrong with Ray's post in the main thread or SnowNH's for that matter. I think deleting some posts (like mine) is a good idea, but over-deleting hurts the thread and annoys people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Who knows maybe It will become a category 5 hurricane. Well 98% unlikely. That would be something tho. Come Eye-rene hurry up and grow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Who knows maybe It will become a category 5 hurricane. Well 98% unlikely. That would be something tho. Come Eye-rene hurry up and grow! CAT5 that weakens to a TS in the 6 hrs prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The model I ran on the back of the bar napkin is about 20 miles west of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Good christ. He must be dominating in his pants right now. Great. Now I have to clean sunflowers seeds from the keyboard. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 :lmao: At this on FB. Cat 5 into NC. And then a Cat 2 hitting LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 :lmao: At this on FB. Cat 5 into NC. And then a Cat 2 hitting LI and SNE. ...but jesus christ if that were to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ...but jesus christ if that were to happen... Now that I look at it, it REALLY doesn't make sense. Cat 1 off VA Beach, strengthening to a Cat 2 by landfall on LI? :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If you can get Tex Antoine I'll listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html The storm really seems to have a rapidly evolving appearance at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What causes the storm to slow down so much near NC on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Joy to the fishees in the deep blue sea, no joy for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What causes the storm to slow down so much near NC on the GFS? The 2nd shortwave passes and there isn't anything to really steer it in any direction very fast. I think the 12z GFS had a coastal scraper too, if it ends up verifying we'll have to give the GFS some credit...it's been bad so far this year (and I hope it's being bad now too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Well, I think we may finally rule out a landfall in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivanillich Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Wow. Left today at 11am EDT, and Irene was just about in the same place she is now. Just got home and, just wow. She's a cat two almost in the same place. Shredola schmedola.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Aw...that's our JB! track from NC north like Floyd, but storm will be stronger further north than Floyd was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Posterity save... Irene will be a monumental disaster from eastern North Carolina to New England due to wind damage and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Posterity save... http://twitter.com/H...961843700416512 Irene will be a monumental disaster from eastern North Carolina to New England due to wind damage and flooding. Depends on whether the track continues to trend to the right. At the rate it has been changing in the past 24 hours, Irene may not even clip Hatteras. The greatest damage would be wave/wind erosion on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Posterity save... Irene will be a monumental disaster from eastern North Carolina to New England due to wind damage and flooding. I mean, it's not that outrageous of a forecast given the FFG and QPF forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I mean, it's not that outrageous of a forecast given the FFG and QPF forecasts. It's not outrageous if the current progs verify but using "will" five days out might be a bit much. 150 mile track east and it's a miss except for maybe the Cape and the OBX. 150 miles within 5 days is definitely in the cone. I'm not disputing the modeling...if the models are right it's certainly going to be a nasty or worse event. If the final result is a 50-100 mile miss this goes down as a one of the bigger busts for JB and Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's already been a bust forecast track wise! This storm has been east of guidance since the very begining and the trend continues lol seeming just 3 days ago it had a landfall near the FL panhandle and now possible fish, the models are horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 It's already been a bust forecast track wise! This storm has been east of guidance since the very begining and the trend continues lol seeming just 3 days ago it had a landfall near the FL panhandle and now possible fish, the models are horrid. The last day of runs has been pretty consistent. The center jump on Saturday night really screwed with the models for about 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, I'm definitely throwing in the towel on FL and GA, and possibly even SC at this point. Looks like I'm behind the curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I will be making preliminary preparations today, such as harvesting my ripe vegetables, putting away loose items. One never knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, I'm definitely throwing in the towel on FL and GA, and possibly even SC at this point. Looks like I'm behind the curve. I will make sure to give her a big wave as she barrels on up 150 miles out off my coast. Irene will probably screw up our daily t-storms to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Don't know if it has been posted, and it's not that timely, but this is a pretty awesome hi-res MODIS pic from yesterday. http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=GreaterAntilles.2011234.terra.500m.jpg I love the outflow area near Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, I'm definitely throwing in the towel on FL and GA, and possibly even SC at this point. Looks like I'm behind the curve. Sorry Jawsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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