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iCyclone Chase: IRENE

HurricaneJosh

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
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It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess.

Just some early thoughts. It is a good question.

Eh, wrt the outlierness... it was slightly questionable until the GFSE jumped on board with the Euro. We'll see what happens as the models change, of course.

That would certainly be one of the craziest, most unique chases you've ever been on. Good luck!

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Ian

Ian

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It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess.

Just some early thoughts. It is a good question.

seems like any current trend is westward. a few miles makes a big difference.. nightmare chase scenario coastal hugger. ;)

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saltysenior

saltysenior

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It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess.

Just some early thoughts. It is a good question.

you could have been here and if you survived you could still have caught it again in mass. ......a rare double header opportunity....a sure bet to be nominated to the Chasers Hall of Fame..:thumbsup:

http://www.tilloocut...Cut/Webcam.html

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
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It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess.

Just some early thoughts. It is a good question.

The GFS is also trending west.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess.

Just some early thoughts. It is a good question.

That track has 75% of the weight Adam gives to models.

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Master of Disaster

Master of Disaster

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Just wondering, on a place like Long Island with (I assume) only a few access points, wouldn't it be tough to get in closer to when the storm hits? I don't know their official procedures but I could see them preventing entrance to the island at some point.

I was thinking the same thing about the OBX though.

Funny the post counts by the way between you and I.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Just wondering, on a place like Long Island with (I assume) only a few access points, wouldn't it be tough to get in closer to when the storm hits? I don't know their official procedures but I could see them preventing entrance to the island at some point.

Its a big island. I myself would recommend setting up on a quiet street in Nassau Shores, on Leewater Avenue at Curlew, 11758.

Queens and Brooklyn, and the two big airports (not counting SWA hub ISP) are on the Island. Numerous East/West highways. A few North/South. Parkways/Causeways to Jones Beach and Robert Moses may be closed, but those are on a barrier island, and they can't block every street to neighborhoods on the Great South Bay. Like Nassau Shores.

Heck, maybe he can stay at Ben's place in Brooklyn.

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Ozarkwx

Ozarkwx

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You will have a lot more flexibility on the "mainland". I like Ginx's location a lot for scooting east or west. Gloria was still pretty intense along SE CT shoreline. Better to have the ability to go east if you need it, any 11th hour east jogs and you end up in Montauk looking mournfully in the direction of Block Island and think about what might have been. :gun_bandana:

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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you could have been here and if you survived you could still have caught it again in mass. ......a rare double header opportunity....a sure bet to be nominated to the Chasers Hall of Fame..:thumbsup:

:lol:

I think one hit is enough for me-- I'm usually completely exhausted after going through a cyclone once.

:D

What are your thoughts, quiet guy?

He has no thoughts. It's not hitting MX, so it doesn't exist.

Josh, if you do decide to chase this one, I have a generator you guys are free to use. Just toss it in the back of a truck or SUV and fill it when you need it.

:wub:

Thanks-- I don't anticipate needing it-- and we won't be driving an SUV-- but I really appreciate that offer. It's very thoughtful of you.

Just wondering, on a place like Long Island with (I assume) only a few access points, wouldn't it be tough to get in closer to when the storm hits? I don't know their official procedures but I could see them preventing entrance to the island at some point.

Like Ed said, Long Island is enormous and bodily connected to Queens and Brooklyn. It's 28 mi wide and there are a million ways to travel E/W-- there is no way to close the Island. They can close the barrier beaches, yes-- but not the main Island.

You really should go to Westerly RI , use the terminal moraine a half mile from the barrier beach and watch as the RFQ rolls in

Oh, for sure!! That location is in play if we do RI/MA instead of LI.

Its a big island. I myself would recommend setting up on a quiet street in Nassau Shores, on Leewater Avenue at Curlew, 11758.

Queens and Brooklyn, and the two big airports (not counting SWA hub ISP) are on the Island. Numerous East/West highways. A few North/South. Parkways/Causeways to Jones Beach and Robert Moses may be closed, but those are on a barrier island, and they can't block every street to neighborhoods on the Great South Bay. Like Nassau Shores.

Bingo. I think a lot of people don't realize how large Long Island is, and how integrated it is with the mainland.

You will have a lot more flexibility on the "mainland". I like Ginx's location a lot for scooting east or west. Gloria was still pretty intense along SE CT shoreline. Better to have the ability to go east if you need it, any 11th hour east jogs and you end up in Montauk looking mournfully in the direction of Block Island and think about what might have been. :gun_bandana:

I hear what you're saying, and there is that risk of feeling totally screwed as the center passes just E of Montauk.

But I'm from the Island and I feel like I have a very good instinct about what will hit the Island and what will miss. In 1991, on my very first chase, I correctly decided to go for RI instead of LI, to chase Bob-- and that one was close. The bottom line is that Long Island is really enticing to me because 1) I grew up there, so it has sentimental importance to me and 2) a LI landfall (if it occurs) will be stronger than the mainland landfall that follows it.

But, yeah-- there's some risk. I just hope the situation is clear by the time I have to make a decision.

Wow I wouldn't know where to go at this point

You and me both! :lol:

This is definitely a puzzling chase. The angle of approach means that everything from NC to MA is in play for me right now. Ugh! I'm probably just going to fly to NYC tomorrow and worry about next steps then. I don't know what else to say at this point! :D

Josh... do you still have reservations for Morehead City at this point?

Yep. :sun:

But are you honestly suggesting I'll need it? I don't see any credible model that far W, and even with the W trending, that just seems like a big jump at this point. (Your own forecast doesn't even show a mainland-NC hit. :D) Thoughts?

Josh, if you don't mind me asking, can you provide more info with the Morehead City location? PM me if you'd like...

Sure! It's in the center of the city-- not on the barrier beach-- at an elevation of ~20 ft, which is almost the highest elevation in town. It's pretty ideal, actually!

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Dsnowx53

Dsnowx53

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Dude, that's a classic, red-meat Long Island landfall-- a clean path until it rides into the S Shore. Yummy.

Exciting, isn't it!? I might drive down to Long Beach or Jones Beach for this myself since I'm so close to those locations.

I'd assume, though, that you'd want an RFQ location? I wouldn't be surprised if there is a short-term tick to the east (and am actually still slightly leaning this way), and central LI or just east of there is the prime landfall location (like the HWRF), as opposed to right now where Nassau County is part of the RFQ.

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Scott747

Scott747

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It's true, it wears him out. The 8 knot winds in Don's clear-air mode eyewall made him eat lots of grease and gravy afterward, and he almost slept through breakfast the next day.

:lmao:

You should have seen him in Brownsville before Dolly when he had to subject himself to a Whataburger. No gravy but plenty of grease.

I can only imagine y'all at Denny's.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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We are heading out tomorrow. Heading just east of Morehead City to a town called town Beaufort. Have a friend who has parents who own a beach house on a sound a little ways off the coast. Well built home and should be a pretty ideal location.

Good luck man. I wanna chase one of these someday lol

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

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Exciting, isn't it!? I might drive down to Long Beach or Jones Beach for this myself since I'm so close to those locations.

I'd assume, though, that you'd want an RFQ location? I wouldn't be surprised if there is a short-term tick to the east (and am actually still slightly leaning this way), and central LI or just east of there is the prime landfall location (like the HWRF), as opposed to right now where Nassau County is part of the RFQ.

It is exciting. :) And, yes, I would want to position further to the right. But we'll see!

FWIW: Jason and I are strongly thinking about heading to Morehead City on Friday. Would be awesome if you ended up there as well.

Cool! :)

It's true, it wears him out. The 8 knot winds in Don's clear-air mode eyewall made him eat lots of grease and gravy afterward, and he almost slept through breakfast the next day.

<_<

:lmao:

You should have seen him in Brownsville before Dolly when he had to subject himself to a Whataburger. No gravy but plenty of grease.

I can only imagine y'all at Denny's.

<_<

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