ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yep-- exactly. CT also got a lot of press as well-- cities like New London were devastated. Yeah, it's hard to imagine what would happen now. Yikes. I appreciate you asking, but it's totally cool. The whole debate-- LI vs SNE-- is actually very relevant to this thread, as that will be the central question if I head up to the Northeast USA to chase this thing. And it's not like I have any chase updates to share. And you know what a history nerd I am-- I'm always up for history. Carry on. Cool...climo is always great to talk about...1938 is known as a New England hurricane, but if this happened 2011, you would be chasing on LI no doubt, not RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Cool...climo is always great to talk about...1938 is known as a New England hurricane, but if this happened 2011, you would be chasing on LI no doubt, not RI. Yeah, as a native Long Islander, I've always taken issue with people referring to it as the "New England Hurricane". It is such gross oversight of the fact that the cyclone came ashore on-- and devastated-- Long Island with its maximum ferocity. So I defiantly refer to it as the "Long Island Hurricane" or the "Long Island Express". Perhaps a good compromise would be the "NY/New England Hurricane" or the "Northeast Hurricane". It's a little thing, but it's always bugged me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, as a native Long Islander, I've always taken issue with people referring to it as the "New England Hurricane". It is such gross oversight of the fact that the cyclone came ashore on-- and devastated-- Long Island with its maximum ferocity. So I defiantly refer to it as the "Long Island Hurricane" or the "Long Island Express". Perhaps a good compromise would be the "NY/New England Hurricane" or the "Northeast Hurricane". It's a little thing, but it's always bugged me. At least the name has historically been "Long Island Express"...even though everyone says its a New England Hurricane. So that must be reassuring slightly. Impact on New England will always take precedent over LI's conditions...at least until E LI has a city bigger than PVD. That's just the way it is....population takes precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 At least the name has historically been "Long Island Express"...even though everyone says its a New England Hurricane. So that must be reassuring slightly. Impact on New England will always take precedent over LI's conditions...at least until E LI has a city bigger than PVD. That's just the way it is....population takes precedent. Oh, agreed. The impact was greater in New England because big, industrialized towns were hit. But as a harsh weather nerd, of course I feel like the place that had the lowest pressure and highest winds should get "top billing". P.S. There were some towns on E Long Island at that time, and they were devastated. I think one whole town-- Quogue Village, if I remember correctly-- was obliterated completely-- almost every house mowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Oh, agreed. The impact was greater in New England because big, industrialized towns were hit. But as a harsh weather nerd, of course I feel like the place that had the lowest pressure and highest winds should get "top billing". P.S. There were some towns on E Long Island at that time, and they were devastated. I think one whole town-- Quogue Village, if I remember correctly-- was obliterated completely-- almost every house mowed down. How sad Ugh, today that would be like the apocalypse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 At least the name has historically been "Long Island Express"...even though everyone says its a New England Hurricane. So that must be reassuring slightly. Impact on New England will always take precedent over LI's conditions...at least until E LI has a city bigger than PVD. That's just the way it is....population takes precedent. If that happened today and the Hamptons got obliterated, the amount of damage would probably equal or exceed it (judging by all the expensive housing around there.) Property value takes precedence (because in this day and age, Im assuming casualties would be low considering the type of protection and advanced warnings we have...property cannot be moved however) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Will, does the damage potential extend to the big cities, or are you just talking about the coastal communities? Eastern LI is pretty.... barren, but it is beautiful Since when? Over the last 10 years it has been divided into 10 acre lots. The only area left undeveloped is Napeague and who would want to live there/ 1938 overwashed that whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 So what's the deal, Josh? Are you chasing it? Looking now like it might scrape New England as a weakening Cat 1. Not exactly your usual cup of tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 So what's the deal, Josh? Are you chasing it? Looking now like it might scrape New England as a weakening Cat 1. Not exactly your usual cup of tea. Good question, dude! I'm honestly not sure. If it looks like a pretty-sure landfall on Long Island or RI/MA, and if strong Cat-1 intensity seems likely (~80 kt), I might do it just for the sheer novelty, and also because I'm just dying to get out and chase something, anything. I'm itching to hit the road, dust off the videocam, use my navigaton tools, collect some wx data, etc. My best friend from high school will chase it with me, and that will be fun, so it adds enticement. I see the whole thing as more of a mellow, recreational, "warm-up" chase-- as opposed to the more hardcore, deep-tropical expeditions I've been doing the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Good question, dude! I'm honestly not sure. If it looks like a pretty-sure landfall on Long Island or RI/MA, and if strong Cat-1 intensity seems likely (~80 kt), I might do it just for the sheer novelty, and also because I'm just dying to get out and chase something, anything. I'm itching to hit the road, dust off the videocam, use my navigaton tools, collect some wx data, etc. My best friend from high school will chase it with me, and that will be fun, so it adds enticement. I see the whole thing as more of a mellow, recreational, "warm-up" chase-- as opposed to a hardcore, deep-tropical expedition. If you bring anything out of this storm, it's the absolute disgust I have for the computer models. A forecast model isn't meant to shift from Miami to West Palm to Savannah to Charleston to Wilmington to Cape Hatteras to Long Island to Cape Cod. That's a follower. Not a forecast model. Absolutely ridiculous the way these models have handled Irene. If I could snap models in half, I would. They should've seen this days ago. On the other note, don't be sad, but it's clear if Irene DID go to Florida, it would be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall. 90L looks to be Hurricane Jose in the making and the models are taking it out to sea. Who knows? If they performed so awfully with Irene, maybe it's headed to Key West... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 If you bring anything out of this storm, it's the absolute disgust I have for the computer models. A forecast model isn't meant to shift from Miami to West Palm to Savannah to Charleston to Wilmington to Cape Hatteras to Long Island to Cape Cod. That's a follower. Not a forecast model. Absolutely ridiculous the way these models have handled Irene. If I could snap models in half, I would. They should've seen this days ago. On the other note, don't be sad, but it's clear if Irene DID go to Florida, it would be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall. 90L looks to be Hurricane Jose in the making and the models are taking it out to sea. Who knows? If they performed so awfully with Irene, maybe it's headed to Key West... To think just 4-5 days ago we were talking about whether this would be a FL storm or Gulf storm. I have never seen a worse performance by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I might do it just for the sheer novelty, and also because I'm just dying to get out and chase something, anything. I'm itching to hit the road, dust off the videocam, use my navigaton tools, collect some wx data, etc. Refusing to give up despite the continuing eastward shift Josh sets sail from Montauk Point to await the arrival of Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 On the other note, don't be sad, but it's clear if Irene DID go to Florida, it would be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall. ...except that she would have spent half her time over Shredderola and Cuba to get there, but I'm probably quoting you out of context. LOL @ jburns' boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Since when? Over the last 10 years it has been divided into 10 acre lots. The only area left undeveloped is Napeague and who would want to live there/ 1938 overwashed that whole area. I was just referring to parts of the Twin Forks... the rest of eastern Suffolk County is among the most expensive places to live on the east coast and (as I elaborated in the following posts), that part of Long Island is becoming quite commercialized, with lots of business popping up and people working there instead of going to the city. The traffic out to Suffolk County in the mornings is almost as bad as that coming into the City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Refusing to give up despite the continuing eastward shift Josh sets sail from Montauk Point to await the arrival of Irene. I just hope he doesn't get too close to Plum Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Good question, dude! I'm honestly not sure. If it looks like a pretty-sure landfall on Long Island or RI/MA, and if strong Cat-1 intensity seems likely (~80 kt), I might do it just for the sheer novelty, and also because I'm just dying to get out and chase something, anything. I'm itching to hit the road, dust off the videocam, use my navigaton tools, collect some wx data, etc. My best friend from high school will chase it with me, and that will be fun, so it adds enticement. I see the whole thing as more of a mellow, recreational, "warm-up" chase-- as opposed to the more hardcore, deep-tropical expeditions I've been doing the last few years. Strictly for entertainment purposes Hey, it might be the best chance we get this year-- with the way this tropical season has gone, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, I think last night's conversation is played out. Back on topic... I'm 50-50 on chasing Irene. I'll decide tomorrow. In the meantime, I've made a hotel arranegement in SE MA. I'd prefer a Long Island landfall, but the models suggest this is more of an Edna/Bob-type scenario. If I do go, I'll fly to NYC Friday, then my friend and I will drive to MA Friday night and some Saturday exploring the area and getting a feel for the lay of the land. Curious what the 12Z Euro will have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Josh, you should have flown to Miami and then gone into the Bahamas like Mike Theiss: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/MikeTheiss/show.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, I think last night's conversation is played out. Back on topic... I'm 50-50 on chasing Irene. I'll decide tomorrow. In the meantime, I've made a hotel arranegement in SE MA. I'd prefer a Long Island landfall, but the models suggest this is more of an Edna/Bob-type scenario. If I do go, I'll fly to NYC Friday, then my friend and I will drive to MA Friday night and some Saturday exploring the area and getting a feel for the lay of the land. Curious what the 12Z Euro will have to say... Josh, the 12z Euro has landfall in Cape May, NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Josh, you can just chase from Coney Island (TM Ed Mahmoud) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Josh, you can just chase from Coney Island That was my idea about 5 pages ago, including catching collapse of the Wonder Wheel on video... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That was my idea about 5 pages ago, including catching collapse of the Wonder Wheel on video... Sorry Ed. I edited for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Fire island seems a little more in Josh's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Fire island seems a little more in Josh's wheelhouse. With the exception of Robert Moses state park on the west end you can't get there by car. They will close the bridges out of West Islip there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, I think last night's conversation is played out. Back on topic... I'm 50-50 on chasing Irene. I'll decide tomorrow. In the meantime, I've made a hotel arranegement in SE MA. I'd prefer a Long Island landfall, but the models suggest this is more of an Edna/Bob-type scenario. If I do go, I'll fly to NYC Friday, then my friend and I will drive to MA Friday night and some Saturday exploring the area and getting a feel for the lay of the land. Curious what the 12Z Euro will have to say... Noting what the 12Z Euro says, I say you better chase this. It could be a once/twice in a lifetime opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ahh finally nice to get a leftward shift after we were about to lose all hope last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ahh finally nice to get a leftward shift after we were about to lose all hope last night Yep. I don't want to get to brave but I am considering a trip down to the Manteo area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, wow-- it looks like prospects for a chase are increasing these W shifts in the modeling. And to think-- it could possibly be on my homeland, Long Island! The latest (5 pm EDT) track from the NHC very Carol-esque-- suggesting the cyclone will cross the E End of Long Island and move into the CT/RI border area. The final intensity before landfall-- 85 kt-- is pretty hearty for this region. The big question remains: Long Island or New England? It will be the central question of this chase-- and one I fortunately don't have to make until Friday night. I have made arrangements for both scenarios. I'm particularly excited about my chosen spot on the S Fork of Long Island-- another reason to really hope for a Carol scenario over a Bob scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 OK, wow-- it looks like prospects for a chase are increasing these W shifts in the modeling. And to think-- it could possibly be on my homeland, Long Island! The latest (5 pm EDT) track from the NHC very Carol-esque-- suggesting the cyclone will cross the E End of Long Island and move into the CT/RI border area. The final intensity before landfall-- 85 kt-- is pretty hearty for this region. The big question remains: Long Island or New England? It will be the central question of this chase-- and one I fortunately don't have to make until Friday night. I have made arrangements for both scenarios. I'm particularly excited about my chosen spot on the S Fork of Long Island-- another reason to really hope for a Carol scenario over a Bob scenario. If this ends up doing something akin to the Euro/GFSE DE/NJ/NYC scenario, where would you most likely be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 If this ends up doing something akin to the Euro/GFSE DE/NJ/NYC scenario, where would you most likely be? It's a good question-- it would be complicated. Here's my thing: I don't expect that track because 1) it's a W outlier and 2) it's not that common. I have more confidence that it would scrape NJ but actually landfall in NYC/LI-- in which case, I would station in Queens or Nassau (W LI), I guess. Just some early thoughts. It is a good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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