iCyclone Chase: IRENE

[HurricaneJosh]

1938, 1821, Gloria were LI specials

1815, Carol, were "shared equally"

1635, 1924, 1944, Edna, Bob were SE MA/Cape specials

Did you see my post about this? See below.

I don't even consider pre-1851 storms-- the data are too sketchy.

1944 was equally strong in NY and RI (95 kt). This is based on the latest reanalysis work-- so it is "shared".

You left out Donna and Belle, two events that were absolutely much better in NY than in New England.

It would suck about as much as getting the leftovers in CT/RI after the cyclone comes fresh off the ocean for its first landfall on Long Island.

The LI-vs-New-England decision is the big one with this chase, should I decide to do it.

Historically:

* 1938, Donna 1960, Belle 1976, and Gloria 1985 gave their best to Long Island.

* Edna 1954 and Bob 1991 gave their best to New England.

* 1944 and Carol 1954 gave about equal lovin' to Long Island and New England.

Long Island is like a big barrier island of much of New England. Given this-- and my nostalgic connection to the place-- if I believe it will hit Long Island, I'll ride it out on Long Island.

[A-L-E-X]

I reach the opposite conclusion from the data. Long Island has had more significant impacts than New England. Long Island "wins" more times, as per my data.

NHC data of landfalls by state and probability of landfall would support your conclusion.

[ORH_wxman]

1938, 1821, Gloria were LI specials

1815, Carol, Donna were "shared equally"

1635, 1924, 1944, Edna, Bob were SE MA/Cape specials

Donna was probably worse on LI...New England is more likely to get hit by a 'cane than LI...but LI is usually a better bet to get nasty conditions since they experience a stronger storm than NE does. 1924 barely counts...that was actually an ACK grazer. If we are talking solid big impact, then I think Josh's statement holds true. Lots of grazers hit SE New England, but they are not worth talking about in terms of "chase material"

[A-L-E-X]

Did you see my post about this? See below.

I don't even consider pre-1851 storms-- the data are too sketchy.

1944 was equally strong in NY and RI (95 kt). This is based on the latest reanalysis work-- so it is "shared".

You left out Donna and Belle, two events that were absolutely much better in NY than in New England.

Plus he left out 1893-- if you're going to include 1821 you need to include 1893 LOL

Also 1944 creamed the Jersey Shore and Long Island as bad as it did anywhere else.

[free_man]

1944 was a Long Island landfall (and not really East End either-- more like Central Suffolk County)-- it also killed the Jersey Shore.

It was definitely worse for SE MA than LI unless you are chasing heavy rains. The outer part of LI did recieve a hit, granted, but judging by the rainfall distribution, most of the wind was to the east of the center like most NE hurriacnes

[ORH_wxman]

Plus he left out 1893-- if you're going to include 1821 you need to include 1893 LOL

Also 1944 creamed the Jersey Shore and Long Island as bad as it did anywhere else.

1944 was far worse in New England than the Jersey shore I'm pretty sure...only LI can claim matching NE in 1944.

[free_man]

Donna was probably worse on LI...New England is more likely to get hit by a 'cane than LI...but LI is usually a better bet to get nasty conditions since they experience a stronger storm than NE does. 1924 barely counts...that was actually an ACK grazer. If we are talking solid big impact, then I think Josh's statement holds true. Lots of grazers hit SE New England, but they are not worth talking about in terms of "chase material"

Well solid big impact, yes. Then we can remove Bob, Gloria, 1824, Donna...at least. None were close to majors at landfall. Sample size sucks.

[A-L-E-X]

1944 was far worse in New England than the Jersey shore I'm pretty sure...only LI can claim matching NE in 1944.

That's true-- but regarding the physical damage, I remember hearing that the entire Jersey boardwalk was torn apart and LB Island was inundated. The winds were stronger here and in new england of course, but the damage in NJ was severe also.

[HurricaneJosh]

It was definitely worse for SE MA than LI unless you are chasing heavy rains. The outer part of LI did recieve a hit, granted, but judging by the rainfall distribution, most of the wind was to the east of the center like most NE hurriacnes

Not according to the latest research.

See p. 47 of this recent paper, by Chris Landsea and other top reanalysis experts: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/10_US_hurricanes.pdf

NY and RI were analyzed to have experienced 95 kt and the impact to those states is assessed as Cat 2. The impact of the hurricane in MA is assessed to be Cat 1.

[A-L-E-X]

It was definitely worse for SE MA than LI unless you are chasing heavy rains. The outer part of LI did recieve a hit, granted, but judging by the rainfall distribution, most of the wind was to the east of the center like most NE hurriacnes

That was transitioning over so you're probably right. I've always wondered how all that damage occurred to our south on the Jersey Shore-- maybe because that storm had an expanded eyewall like Donna?

Donna was one of those exceptional storms-- 100 mile wide eyewall and even west of here, LGA had 93 mph winds. The damage there was comparable to Dec 1992.

[ORH_wxman]

Not according to the latest research.

See p. 47 of this recent paper, by Chris Landsea and other top reeanalysis experts: http://www.aoml.noaa..._hurricanes.pdf

NY and RI were analyzed to have experienced 95 kt and the impact to those states is assessed as Cat 2. The impact of the hurricane in MA is assessed to be Cat 1.

E LI is the worst spot on the east coast north of NC for hurricanes (worst meaning the best for guys like you, lol)...but it gets overlooked because New England has a much higher population base affected in those hurricanes than extreme E LI....so the impact on New England is far worse in terms of economic and casualty potential.

[A-L-E-X]

Not according to the latest research.

See p. 47 of this recent paper, by Chris Landsea and other top reeanalysis experts: http://www.aoml.noaa..._hurricanes.pdf

NY and RI were analyzed to have experienced 95 kt and the impact to those states is assessed as Cat 2. The impact of the hurricane in MA is assessed to be Cat 1.

So the eye was too far west for Cat 2 conditions in MA?

[free_man]

Not according to the latest research.

See p. 47 of this recent paper, by Chris Landsea and other top reeanalysis experts: http://www.aoml.noaa..._hurricanes.pdf

NY and RI were analyzed to have experienced 95 kt and the impact to those states is assessed as Cat 2. The impact of the hurricane in MA is assessed to be Cat 1.

I just said '44 on outer LI was a hit, but that is a small area compared to most of SNE.

Maybe we are arguing different things and there is no argument? Are you talking strictly chasing, or overall impacts now? I don't understand where you are coming from saying a 15 mile stretch of LI taking a hit from a hurricane like 1944 is more important than the three states CT/RI/MA further up.

Maybe the topic you guys were discussing evolved or I threw it off...sorry . lol

[A-L-E-X]

E LI is the worst spot on the east coast north of NC for hurricanes (worst meaning the best for guys like you, lol)...but it gets overlooked because New England has a much higher population base affected in those hurricanes than extreme E LI....so the impact on New England is far worse in terms of economic and casualty potential.

Will, does the damage potential extend to the big cities, or are you just talking about the coastal communities?

Eastern LI is pretty.... barren, but it is beautiful

[HurricaneJosh]

Donna was probably worse on LI...New England is more likely to get hit by a 'cane than LI...but LI is usually a better bet to get nasty conditions since they experience a stronger storm than NE does. 1924 barely counts...that was actually an ACK grazer. If we are talking solid big impact, then I think Josh's statement holds true. Lots of grazers hit SE New England, but they are not worth talking about in terms of "chase material"

Donna absolutely was worse on Long Island than in New England.

Plus he left out 1893-- if you're going to include 1821 you need to include 1893 LOL

Also 1944 creamed the Jersey Shore and Long Island as bad as it did anywhere else.

Yeha, the 1944 impact on NJ and Long Island was huge. I was surprised to see it described as just "rain".

Well solid big impact, yes. Then we can remove Bob, Gloria, 1824, Donna...at least. None were close to majors at landfall. Sample size sucks.

It is pointless to limit this discussion to majors, since only a few have hit the region in the last century.

I use these stats to apply to my chase decision-making. As I don't expect Irene to be a major up there, it's more relevant to look at all hurricane impacts-- and that is what I am doing.

[ORH_wxman]

I just said '44 on outer LI was a hit, but that is a small area compared to most of SNE.

Maybe we are arguing different things and there is no argument? Are you talking strictly chasing, or overall impacts now? I don't understand where you are coming from saying a 15 mile stretch of LI taking a hit from a hurricane like 1944 is more important than the three states CT/RI/MA further up.

He's talking strictly worst conditions...not impact. See my post above. E LI is the golden standard when it comes to the worst conditions from a TC on the E coast. ACK might have an argument, but given that LI is south of ACK, LI probably takes the cake.

[A-L-E-X]

I just said '44 on outer LI was a hit, but that is a small area compared to most of SNE.

Maybe we are arguing different things and there is no argument? Are you talking strictly chasing, or overall impacts now? I don't understand where you are coming from saying a 15 mile stretch of LI taking a hit from a hurricane like 1944 is more important than the three states CT/RI/MA further up.

I understand why you would include RI/MA but wasn't CT almost entirely on the west side of the storm?

[HurricaneJosh]

I just said '44 on outer LI was a hit, but that is a small area compared to most of SNE.

Maybe we are arguing different things and there is no argument? Are you talking strictly chasing, or overall impacts now? I don't understand where you are coming from saying a 15 mile stretch of LI taking a hit from a hurricane like 1944 is more important than the three states CT/RI/MA further up.

Maybe the topic you guys were discussing evolved or I threw it off...sorry . lol

We're in my chase thread, where I brought up past storms specifically to explain my decision-making process about where to chase. Overall regional impact is pretty uninteresting to me-- I'm trying to get inside the wind max, and that's it. If that streak of max winds passes over Montauk Point and I'm there, it's a win. I don't care if the rest of Long Island only has 40-kt winds.

[HurricaneJosh]

He's talking strictly worst conditions...not impact. See my post above. E LI is the golden standard when it comes to the worst conditions from a TC on the E coast. ACK might have an argument, but given that LI is south of ACK, LI probably takes the cake.

Bingo. Thanks!

[A-L-E-X]

We're in my chase thread, where I brought up past storms specifically to explain my decision-making process about where to chase. Overall regional impact is pretty uninteresting to me-- I'm trying to get inside the wind max, and that's it. If that streak of max winds passes over Montauk Point and I'm there, it's a win. I don't care if the rest of Long Island only has 40-kt winds.

I take it you would have chased Bob on MTP also? The eyewall grazed that area.

[HurricaneJosh]

I take it you would have chased Bob on MTP also? The eyewall grazed that area.

I correctly saw that it would be more of a New England event, so headed up into CT and RI, not out on Long Island. I got to Providence right after the worst had passed, so I kind of botched it. I was only 21 and it was my first chase.

[ORH_wxman]

Bingo. Thanks!

Yep, E LI easily gets the worst conditions...they are a barrier island on northward moving hurricanes. Its not rocket science that they get the worst conditions from most TCs that impact the northeast.

New England certainly has MUCH greater social/economic impacts...but in terms of pure hurricane conditions, E LI easily takes the cake. Only ACK might rival them in SNE but they still fall short given their latitude.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yep, E LI easily gets the worst conditions...they are a barrier island on northward moving hurricanes. Its not rocket science that they get the worst conditions from most TCs that impact the northeast.

New England certainly has MUCH greater social/economic impacts...but in terms of pure hurricane conditions, E LI easily takes the cake. Only ACK might rival them in SNE but they still fall short given their latitude.

Agreed. Even with 1938, Long Island had the most extreme conditions, yet it was New England that had the lion's share of the destruction. The few towns out on E Long Island were smashed-- but there just wasn't a lot to smash back then.

[A-L-E-X]

Yep, E LI easily gets the worst conditions...they are a barrier island on northward moving hurricanes. Its not rocket science that they get the worst conditions from most TCs that impact the northeast.

New England certainly has MUCH greater social/economic impacts...but in terms of pure hurricane conditions, E LI easily takes the cake. Only ACK might rival them in SNE but they still fall short given their latitude.

Although this may be changing Will-- as Eastern LI is becoming extremely built up now. The Hamptons, for example, are among the most expensive parts of the country to live in. While this was true in the 1930s and 1940s-- it may no longer be the case (if not now than maybe in the next few decades.)

[ORH_wxman]

Agreed. Even with 1938, Long Island had the most extreme conditions, yet it was New England that had the lion's share of the destruction. The few towns out on E Long Island were smashed-- but there just wasn't a lot to smash back then.

Yeah a lot of this is population driven. Do you remember the TWC special "Danger's Edge"? It was the first video you could order from TWC back in 1992 I think...my dad got it for me for my birthday. It explained the 1938 very well actually and how LI would have seen absolutely catastrophic damage nowadays (back in the early 90s) compared to 1938 when there was nothing to destroy at that time....it was just forest and farmland...not relatively heavily populated areas. So all the damage and headlines were in Rhode Island and Providence...even though they received "lighter" conditions than E LI likely received. Nobody cared that E LI saw winds 10-20 knots greater back then...because it didn't matter.

[A-L-E-X]

Agreed. Even with 1938, Long Island had the most extreme conditions, yet it was New England that had the lion's share of the destruction. The few towns out on E Long Island were smashed-- but there just wasn't a lot to smash back then.

If that occurred NOW the results would be FAR more grim, Josh. Eastern LI is starting to become much more commercialized with many people actually heading EAST for work! (The traffic jams going east are often worse than those going west during the morning rush.)

[ORH_wxman]

If that occurred NOW the results would be FAR more grim, Josh. Eastern LI is starting to become much more commercialized with many people actually heading EAST for work! (The traffic jams going east are often worse than those going west during the morning rush.)

E LI has always been the big conundrum for hurricanes ever since 1938 because of the population increase....but I do not want to take this too far OT. Josh, if at any time you think this is going too far OT, just say so...but I figured since we are kind of in a lull between 00z and 12z model runs, that you wouldn't mind since its still northeast hurricane impact talk. I do find this type of convo very educating.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah a lot of this is population driven. Do you remember the TWC special "Danger's Edge"? It was the first video you could order from TWC back in 1992 I think...my dad got it for me for my birthday. It explained the 1938 very well actually and how LI would have seen absolutely catastrophic damage nowadays (back in the early 90s) compared to 1938 when there was nothing to destroy at that time....it was just forest and farmland...not relatively heavily populated areas. So all the damage and headlines were in Rhode Island and Providence...even though they received "lighter" conditions than E LI likely received. Nobody cared that E LI saw winds 10-20 knots greater back then...because it didn't matter.

BTW Will, do you have any theories on why there were so many NE hurricane landfalls from the 1930s to about 1960? It has to be much more than the AMO cycle, as we have been in the active phase since 1995 and all we have seen are gulf coast landfalls and atlantic recurvers-- what other factors do you think were in place back then that led to so many landfalls up here?

[A-L-E-X]

E LI has always been the big conundrum for hurricanes ever since 1938 because of the population increase....but I do not want to take this too far OT. Josh, if at any time you think this is going too far OT, just say so...but I figured since we are kind of in a lull between 00z and 12z model runs, that you wouldn't mind since its still northeast hurricane impact talk. I do find this type of convo very educating.

Yes I do too, Im actually a big fan of historical hurricane research and tracks. It's my fourth favorite weather hobby after snow storms, arctic outbreaks and big heat waves Thanks for all the help Will-- this is much more education than reading for hours in a library which is what I did back in the 80s / early 90s!

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah a lot of this is population driven. Do you remember the TWC special "Danger's Edge"? It was the first video you could order from TWC back in 1992 I think...my dad got it for me for my birthday. It explained the 1938 very well actually and how LI would have seen absolutely catastrophic damage nowadays (back in the early 90s) compared to 1938 when there was nothing to destroy at that time....it was just forest and farmland...not relatively heavily populated areas. So all the damage and headlines were in Rhode Island and Providence...even though they received "lighter" conditions than E LI likely received. Nobody cared that E LI saw winds 10-20 knots greater back then...because it didn't matter.

Yep-- exactly. CT also got a lot of press as well-- cities like New London were devastated.

If that occurred NOW the results would be FAR more grim, Josh. Eastern LI is starting to become much more commercialized with many people actually heading EAST for work! (The traffic jams going east are often worse than those going west during the morning rush.)

Yeah, it's hard to imagine what would happen now. Yikes.

E LI has always been the big conundrum for hurricanes ever since 1938 because of the population increase....but I do not want to take this too far OT. Josh, if at any time you think this is going too far OT, just say so...but I figured since we are kind of in a lull between 00z and 12z model runs, that you wouldn't mind since its still northeast hurricane impact talk. I do find this type of convo very educating.

I appreciate you asking, but it's totally cool. The whole debate-- LI vs SNE-- is actually very relevant to this thread, as that will be the central question if I head up to the Northeast USA to chase this thing. And it's not like I have any chase updates to share. And you know what a history nerd I am-- I'm always up for history.

Carry on.