JamieOber Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm looking at places on the S Fork of Long Island, SE RI, and of course the Cape (MA). It's all prelim. Just in case... There's something cool about chasing this even if it is like a food snob eating a frozen pizza to you. It's Gloria-esque feel kind of would make this a full-circle chase for you, right? As in going back to where it all began? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Getting stuck in the south fork as the storm passes to the east would suuuuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Getting stuck in the south fork as the storm passes to the east would suuuuck. It would suck about as much as getting the leftovers in CT/RI after the cyclone comes fresh off the ocean for its first landfall on Long Island. The LI-vs-New-England decision is the big one with this chase, should I decide to do it. Historically: * 1938, Donna 1960, Belle 1976, and Gloria 1985 gave their best to Long Island. * Edna 1954 and Bob 1991 gave their best to New England. * 1944 and Carol 1954 gave about equal lovin' to Long Island and New England. Long Island is like a big barrier island of much of New England. Given this-- and my nostalgic connection to the place-- if I believe it will hit Long Island, I'll ride it out on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm going to respond to the other posts in this thread-- including the generous offers of help ()-- a little later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It would suck about as much as getting the leftovers in CT/RI after the cyclone comes fresh off the ocean for its first landfall on Long Island. The LI-vs-New-England decision is the big one with this chase, should I decide to do it. Historically: * 1938, Donna 1960, Belle 1976, and Gloria 1985 gave their best to Long Island. * Edna 1954 and Bob 1991 gave their best to New England. * 1944 and Carol 1954 gave about equal lovin' to Long Island and New England. Long Island is like a big barrier island of much of New England. Given this-- and my nostalgic connection to the place-- if I believe it will hit Long Island, I'll ride it out on Long Island. Hmm.. Seems like historically with storms the Cape might be the better bet? Seems like higher probability of the storm tracking there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Hmm.. Seems like historically with storms the Cape might be the better bet? Seems like higher probability of the storm tracking there I reach the opposite conclusion from the data. Long Island has had more significant impacts than New England. Long Island "wins" more times, as per my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Totally. I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well. I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. Whadda mean UGH??? Come visit us up this a way!! My hubby might even go with you. His favorite spot is Cliff Walk in Newport. I'm working on the overnights this weekend. Would be nice to see ya again, my friend!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Unless you're going to the Cape, call this one off Josh...0z GFS, with new data, is way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I reach the opposite conclusion from the data. Long Island has had more significant impacts than New England. Long Island "wins" more times, as per my data. I didnt explain myself well. I guess my point is I think the capes going to get this one more than LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Better start pooling up money for a west pacific chase or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 I didnt explain myself well. I guess my point is I think the capes going to get this one more than LI. Gotcha. Based on the latest GFS, I'd agree with you! It looks like the Cape might be the only place that gets anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Better start pooling up money for a west pacific chase or something. Don't go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Unless you're going to the Cape, call this one off Josh...0z GFS, with new data, is way east. Go back into your cave. It's not winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Damn...thought I posted a whole Pro/Con thing...but the post didn't make it...I hate that...gotta re-write it I guess. There is so much going on with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Something like this? Pro: Get to hang out with some people from the board in a new place, almost assured to have a good time. Con: There isn't going to be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Don't go there. you can do it this week if you want; two typhoons doing Fujiwara haha btw, good luck on your chase here in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormitecture Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Something like this? Pro: Get to hang out with some people from the board in a new place, almost assured to have a good time. Con: There isn't going to be a hurricane. Nah...little bit more to it than that. Irene now has two potential areas to chase to (since landfall is still a potential for the Carolinas) Here is some of my points Josh, I know you tend to have different goals, but I'd think these are similar points Carolinas: PRO: - warmer climate for better working conditions within the storm - stronger storm strength even if landfall isn't made - with exceptions, access to coast is obtainable. - Lots of area to spread out from the chaser/media CF CON: - difficult landmass to navigate around - difficult to proceed north to LI if doing a dual intercept - not much storm surge protection (see video below) - NC ferries no open except for evacuation traffic - media chaser CF New England/LI PRO - unique intercept, rare opportunity - better road network - much less chasers CON - police extremely strict, coast access difficult - urban areas, high population density, CF traffic - huge amount of media (many directly out of NYC) - weaker storm From hurricane Isabel, this video examples how bad the storm surge was just a shallow surge covered almost the entire area with 3 feet of water. OK...retyped it...lets hope it sticks this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know its not the typical i-Cyclone storm, but Josh at Coney Island if the Avila forecast is right, nice 75 knot hurricane landfalling. Maybe the WonderWheel would topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I know its not the typical i-Cyclone storm, but Josh at Coney Island if the Avila forecast is right, nice 75 knot hurricane landfalling. Maybe the WonderWheel would topple. My gut plus intuation says this might be a Cape Cod special. I think the NHC track is too far W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 My gut plus intuation says this might be a Cape Cod special. I think the NHC track is too far W. after the euro caved to the gfs last night (shifting to the coastal scrape in our world) I agree with this. Maybe Fall River or Newport but I wouldn't go LI at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 after the euro caved to the gfs last night (shifting to the coastal scrape in our world) I agree with this. Maybe Fall River or Newport but I wouldn't go LI at all. No, not based on the current track-- but if it's further W, then I would. A hurricane that hits Long Island and New England is stronger on Long Island-- so the key question becomes, how certain is the Long Island landfall? See this post Re: this topic, and the stats that illustrate why LI is so compelling if it's in play. It's not as simple a decision as it seems, unfortunately! P.S. If Irene is only forecast to clip Cape Cod-- and no other land areas in NY/New England-- then I won't chase it. That setup leaves no margin for error: I'm facing a bad bust before even leaving home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No, not based on the current track-- but if it's further W, then I would. A hurricane that hits Long Island and New England is stronger on Long Island-- so the key question becomes, how certain is the Long Island landfall? See this post Re: this topic, and the stats that illustrate why LI is so compelling if it's in play. It's not as simple a decision as it seems, unfortunately! P.S. If Irene is only forecast to clip Cape Cod-- and no other land areas in NY/New England-- then I won't chase it. That setup leaves no margin for error: I'm facing a bad bust before even leaving home. Given the error in modeling on this storm (progressively east of guidance) you may have to look at Halifax before you're done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Given the error in modeling on this storm (progressively east of guidance) you may have to look at Halifax before you're done It's one of the worst teases I can remember. These E shifts have been utterly demoralizing. We were taking about Charleston 36 hr ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Given the error in modeling on this storm (progressively east of guidance) you may have to look at Halifax before you're done He won't chase in Halifax...I think his extreme is Cape Cod if there is good evidence there will be 60-70kt sustained out near CHH (Chatham) which is an easy place to chase and cops are not very strict there...and there's a ton of back road a lot of us know to avoid them if they decide to get a hard-on for people chasing. Its an extremely difficult area for police to enforce their "no people" rule near beaches if it actually comes to that. I know I'll be down there if we see a Buzzard's Bay track....but this storm still has a lot of wiggle room left. It can easily whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 He won't chase in Halifax...I think his extreme is Cape Cod if there is good evidence there will be 60-70kt sustained out near CHH (Chatham) which is an easy place to chase and cops are not very strict there...and there's a ton of back road a lot of us know to avoid them if they decide to get a hard-on for people chasing. Its an extremely difficult area for police to enforce their "no people" rule near beaches if it actually comes to that. I know I'll be down there if we see a Buzzard's Bay track....but this storm still has a lot of wiggle room left. It can easily whiff. Bingo-- Cape Cod is my absolute N limit. Honestly, if you asked me a week ago if I'd chase up there, I'd have said, "No way." But I feel so desperate for action at this point, and the Cape has had a few good hits in the past-- especially Edna 1954. Good info Re: Chatham. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I reach the opposite conclusion from the data. Long Island has had more significant impacts than New England. Long Island "wins" more times, as per my data. 1938, 1821, Gloria were LI specials 1815, Carol, Donna were "shared equally" 1635, 1924, 1944, Edna, Bob were SE MA/Cape specials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1938, 1821, Gloria were LI specials 1815, Carol, Donna were "shared equally" 1635, 1924, 1944, Edna, Bob were SE MA/Cape specials 1944 was a Long Island landfall (and not really East End either-- more like Central Suffolk County)-- it also killed the Jersey Shore. Other Long Island specials were 1893 (why does everyone forget this storm lol) and Belle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 He won't chase in Halifax...I think his extreme is Cape Cod if there is good evidence there will be 60-70kt sustained out near CHH (Chatham) which is an easy place to chase and cops are not very strict there...and there's a ton of back road a lot of us know to avoid them if they decide to get a hard-on for people chasing. Its an extremely difficult area for police to enforce their "no people" rule near beaches if it actually comes to that. I know I'll be down there if we see a Buzzard's Bay track....but this storm still has a lot of wiggle room left. It can easily whiff. I was kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Bingo-- Cape Cod is my absolute N limit. Honestly, if you asked me a week ago if I'd chase up there, I'd have said, "No way." But I feel so desperate for action at this point, and the Cape has had a few good hits in the past-- especially Edna 1954. Good info Re: Chatham. Thanks. Yeah you'll get your spots if you do homework....we'll help you of course. Police try and block off obvious spots, but there are so many other areas to go to down there that you can get your fill if the storm actually hits there. Its funny, because we saw a lot of police in 2007 during Noel and then again during Earl last year (amazing!!! that POS storm)....but they blocked off the popular beaches...with some good map planning, easily they can be gotten around...they pretty much just park cruisers at popular beach entrances and do nothing for other roads that can circumnavigate them to either private beaches (just as good as a public beach in a bad storm) or points that aren't beaches but quite exposed to winds just off the beach. They never have done huge road blocks that prevent you from getting within a mile or two of the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No, not based on the current track-- but if it's further W, then I would. A hurricane that hits Long Island and New England is stronger on Long Island-- so the key question becomes, how certain is the Long Island landfall? See this post Re: this topic, and the stats that illustrate why LI is so compelling if it's in play. It's not as simple a decision as it seems, unfortunately! P.S. If Irene is only forecast to clip Cape Cod-- and no other land areas in NY/New England-- then I won't chase it. That setup leaves no margin for error: I'm facing a bad bust before even leaving home. Agreed-- isn't Long Island the most common landfall location north of the Carolinas? I remember seeing some sort of statistic regarding this (period of repeatability or whatever it was called.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.