HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think, if things work out right and it comes of the coast, nostalgia is worth it. Give it another two days, then camp out a spot at the tip of Buzzards Bay. P.S. This very well could be a Bob/Edna deal, where the core misses NY but affects SE New England. I am thinking about driving to West Islip to see my brother Ha, we'll all use family as an excuse to see Irene. Just go to cape henry and catch some 138mph winds Trubblemaka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think even if this hits the Outer banks, it's going to be a run-of-the-mill event for that region. But I am very, very curious to see what happens past NC. I won't be chasing anything above NC-- you guys know how I am-- but I'll enjoy watching everyone else enjoy it. If the worst case scenario were going to pan out, let's say a 120mph LARGE dangerous major 100 mi off NJ headed north into LI, structurally sound and not a complete flake like Gloria ( no offense) , you would not turn it down. Odds of that are very low, admittedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 If the worst case scenario were going to pan out, let's say a 120mph LARGE dangerous major 100 mi off NJ headed north into LI, structurally sound and not a completely flake like Gloria ( no offense) , you would not turn it down. Odds of that are very low, admittedly. You're right, of course-- such a scenario would weaken my resolve to sit on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 P.S. This very well could be a Bob/Edna deal, where the core misses NY but affects SE New England. Agree. Too bad it's 5 days out (though model consistency is great), because track is near perfect for surge threat. Would still like to see it move a bit faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saltysenior Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A chase for me is looking less likely right now. The models have really converged nicely and the suggested track over Cape Hatteras is just not my cup of tea, for a couple of reasons: * There's a high risk of a bust-- i.e., if the cyclone shifts just a little further E, it misses. * Even if it the center does cross the Cape technically, the best conditions will be well offshore, to the E. * Hatteras landfalls are usually not very strong. Even a solid Cat 3 is unusual there. * I don't believe the Outer Banks are very accessible in a hurricane situation. I haven't ruled out a chase, but the odds seem against it this afternoon, unless the models shift W again. Who knows? (I believe the NHC's current forecast is too far W and will shift E in the 5 pm EDT package.) This having been said, it looks like this could be an interesting situation developing for you folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and you could really see some yumminess out of this. That would be awesome-- a plan of attack : get the red eye tonite, L.A. to Miami......get to s.fl. wends morning and find a hop over to marsh harbor on one of the many charter flites going over to get people off the islands.....catch the ferry to hopetown..you should be there by wend. late afternoon..then hang on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The forecast track depicted on the map in this thread would suggest a landfall southwest of Hatteras. That's a bad area for surge and flooding anyway nad probably not the safest area for a chase. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agree. Too bad it's 5 days out (though model consistency is great), because track is near perfect for surge threat. Would still like to see it move a bit faster. I think the models will start speeding it up-- I have this hunch. The only 'cane to hit the Northeast USA in the last century or so that was moving under 25 kt was Belle 1976. They almost always haul azz. a plan of attack : get the red eye tonite, L.A. to Miami......get to s.fl. wends morning and find a hop over to marsh harbor on one of the many charter flites going over to get people off the islands.....catch the ferry to hopetown..you should be there by wend. late afternoon..then hang on... Ha ha ha, sounds like a good plan. As I've mentioned occasionally in the past, I'm fairly pee-shy about island chasing, as the bust potential is so high. The Bahamas look appealing at first, but it's all those little islands and no way to adjust your position as the cyclone makes a last-second wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 The forecast track depicted on the map in this thread would suggest a landfall southwest of Hatteras. That's a bad area for surge and flooding anyway nad probably not the safest area for a chase. Steve Yep, true. It's just a tough spot to chase. Lots of issues. Yesterday, when the models seemed to be settling on a mainland E NC landfall, I have everything all planned out. I found a good hotel in Morehead City, about 20 ft above sea level, in a zone that doesn't get evacuated, apparently. I was going to setup there and it was going to be so awesome. Grrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think the models will start speeding it up-- I have this hunch. The only 'cane to hit the Northeast USA in the last century or so that was moving under 25 kt was Belle 1976. They almost always haul azz. Ha ha ha, sounds like a good plan. As I've mentioned occasionally in the past, I'm fairly pee-shy about island chasing, as the bust potential is so high. The Bahamas look appealing at first, but it's all those little islands and no way to adjust your position as the cyclone makes a last-second wobble. This is a fairly large hurricane though...could that compensate for the eyewall fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is a fairly large hurricane though...could that compensate for the eyewall fetish? Nope. My eyewall fetish is too overpowering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 too bad hilton head's not happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 too bad hilton head's not happening... Totally. I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well. I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Totally. I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well. I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. Josh, PM CT Blizz about his parents vacation place in FMH, also if UGH you want to go to UGH RI, I can hook you up at my Moms in Westerly, about 5 miles inland from the barrier beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Totally. I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well. I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. Newport? Bob redux FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Newport? Bob redux FTW? I'm looking at places on the S Fork of Long Island, SE RI, and of course the Cape (MA). It's all prelim. Just in case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm looking at places on the S Fork of Long Island, SE RI, and of course the Cape (MA). It's all prelim. Just in case... Troubling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Troubling... I knew I was gonna take crap from you over this. Ugh. I feel like a straight dude who was just busted looking at gay porn by his best bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Josh, PM CT Blizz about his parents vacation place in FMH, also if UGH you want to go to UGH RI, I can hook you up at my Moms in Westerly, about 5 miles inland from the barrier beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm looking at places on the S Fork of Long Island, SE RI, and of course the Cape (MA). It's all prelim. Just in case... SW RI on the other side of the Forks is a magnet, better surge than SE RI more barrier beaches but Newport would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Hey, best food anywhere, near the ocean, very cool and free, also a weather nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Totally. I was also excited about Morehead City. I had arranged a really sweet setup there-- one that would have been ideal for a direct hit. Oh, well. I'm ashamed to admit that I'm thinking of chasing this on Long Island and even (ugh) RI/MA. I've even looked at a couple of hotels. I don't know what's gotten into me. What "exactly" would you be chasing is what I am sure your professional side is asking yourself. Certainly not a tight core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I knew I was gonna take crap from you over this. Ugh. I feel like a straight dude who was just busted looking at gay porn by his best bud. ...and the best bud is the porn subject Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I knew I was gonna take crap from you over this. Ugh. I feel like a straight dude who was just busted looking at gay porn by his best bud. Not sure if a 40N chase could ever be explained. Then again I knew you would fold like a cheap suit.... However - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ...and the best bud is the porn subject That sub 10 kt chase has really messed with his head. Not sure if he will ever be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yep, true. It's just a tough spot to chase. Lots of issues. Yesterday, when the models seemed to be settling on a mainland E NC landfall, I have everything all planned out. I found a good hotel in Morehead City, about 20 ft above sea level, in a zone that doesn't get evacuated, apparently. I was going to setup there and it was going to be so awesome. Grrrr. I can relate..I'm originally from there (well Beaufort, little town just east of Morehead City) and was planning to go there on Friday. I even have Bogue Banks entry permits (they evacuate the beaches well ahead of the storm but property owners with passes can come and go as they please until the winds are too high to travel the bridges.) Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not sure if a 40N chase could ever be explained. Then again I knew you would fold like a cheap suit.... However - He misses glorified nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Naso fast - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's going to take more than the GFDL to get my hopes up...are we sure it isn't just someone at the NHC closing their eyes and throwing a dart at the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 That sub 10 kt chase has really messed with his head. Not sure if he will ever be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Oh, I am so close to going to eastern LI. Got a place to stay that is on higher ground... All I need to do is find a cheap ticket from RDU/GSO to ISLIP/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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