iCyclone Chase: IRENE

[Martin]

Probably will poke around in NC if the track remains. Good luck Josh! Glad you are going after this one

[ORH_wxman]

My gut tells me NC landfall. I thought the SE U.S. landfall was very much in play a few days ago when people were obsessing over the Gulf idea (I believe last Thursday night). But this is actually getting further N than I ever thought it would at the time.

[HurricaneJosh]

My gut tells me NC landfall. I thought the SE U.S. landfall was very much in play a few days ago when people were obsessing over the Gulf idea (I believe last Thursday night). But this is actually getting further N than I ever thought it would at the time.

The mainland or the Outer Banks?

It will need to move faster to bring really good conditions up to you guys.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm going to wait to see the Euro before having "evening thoughts".

[ORH_wxman]

The mainland or the Outer Banks?

It will need to move faster to bring really good conditions up to you guys.

My gut still says south of the outer banks on the mainland, but it might cut it close. Maybe like Morehead city area....but we are clearly far enough out that this is pretty trivial at the moment. But the Atlantic ridge doesn't seem strong enough to push it west and the trough isn't nearly deep enough to suck it N or NNW at a rapid pace...so it might just meander NNW and then eventually N and NNE along the "alley" between those two synoptic features.

But given we are over 100 hours out, we have to seriously keep a SC landfall in play if that ATL ridge verifies more potent. But I'm just posting what my gut feeling is at the moment given the evidence at hand.

[Scott747]

Nice overall view. I believe we're in a short eclipse period.

[LocoAko]

My gut still says south of the outer banks on the mainland, but it might cut it close. Maybe like Morehead city area....but we are clearly far enough out that this is pretty trivial at the moment. But the Atlantic ridge doesn't seem strong enough to push it west and the trough isn't nearly deep enough to suck it N or NNW at a rapid pace...so it might just meander NNW and then eventually N and NNE along the "alley" between those two synoptic features.

But given we are over 100 hours out, we have to seriously keep a SC landfall in play if that ATL ridge verifies more potent. But I'm just posting what my gut feeling is at the moment given the evidence at hand.

Kind of OT, but this will be cool - probably the first operational experience of dual-polarization radar at MHX capturing a landfalling hurricane. I'm assuming it has been done before by Josh Wurman and the like, but this is probably the first time it will have been intercepted by a permanent, installed dual-pol radar. Wish the data was available to the public, but I think it's kind of exciting and invaluable for future research. Tee hee.

[ORH_wxman]

I think my gut Morehead City, NC track I mentioned hours earlier before the 00z runs is gaining a little bit of traction with 00z suite...but I'm absolutely sure I'll look a fool come verification time, but given the actual info in front of me plus the synoptic setup, I'd still favor that area if you held a gun to my head.

But SC is still def in play...also the unfavored whiff is def still in play too.

[phlwx]

I think my gut Morehead City, NC track I mentioned hours earlier before the 00z runs is gaining a little bit of traction with 00z suite...but I'm absolutely sure I'll look a fool come verification time, but given the actual info in front of me plus the synoptic setup, I'd still favor that area if you held a gun to my head.

But SC is still def in play...also the unfavored whiff is def still in play too.

Morehead City is looking pretty good at this point...if it does look like it's going to nudge a bit west he can run to Wrightsville relatively easily...Wrightsville may be a good spot too.

[Ed Lizard]

I expect Josh(if anyone) to capture on video some fool getting decapitated amongst the crowd of chasers and grandmas on the thousand foot beach, and maybe a free t-shirt(which I would generously give to Ed M. so he could add it to his shrine collection).

Double fat and tall, please.

[wxmx]

I don't like the trends for a good chase. Now the official track is the left outlier... but I still think it will make a landfall in N Car, but confidence is lower now.

[ontario squalls]

I have an annual college buddy get-together the last weekend of Aug every year in Duck, NC (outer banks). Now my one buddy--owner of the beach house--is getting squirrely.

[Ginx snewx]

Awesome Josh, look forward to your posts, live from HSE.

Still think this will be the spot, RFQ.

[am19psu]

I don't like the trends for a good chase. Now the official track is the left outlier... but I still think it will make a landfall in N Car, but confidence is lower now.

same here.

[Scott747]

LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND THE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE UPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.

[CoastalWx]

My gut still says south of the outer banks on the mainland, but it might cut it close. Maybe like Morehead city area....but we are clearly far enough out that this is pretty trivial at the moment. But the Atlantic ridge doesn't seem strong enough to push it west and the trough isn't nearly deep enough to suck it N or NNW at a rapid pace...so it might just meander NNW and then eventually N and NNE along the "alley" between those two synoptic features.

But given we are over 100 hours out, we have to seriously keep a SC landfall in play if that ATL ridge verifies more potent. But I'm just posting what my gut feeling is at the moment given the evidence at hand.

Without seeing the next set of models, I'd say that's a good first call. I guess maybe if he wants to be in the eastern eyewall....HSE might be a better shot, but Morehead or just ne seems like a good call right now.

[Brent]

Not sure this is worth chasing if this end trend doesn't halt.

[thewxmann]

Not worth it anymore IMO. The east trend is unmistakable and I think this will fish now. If not, brush with Outer Banks, but that's gonna be hard to chase.

[kingu]

Not worth it anymore IMO. The east trend is unmistakable and I think this will fish now. If not, brush with Outer Banks, but that's gonna be hard to chase.

You just had to use the F word... Ahh well, storm cancel.

[HurricaneJosh]

Update coming

[HurricaneJosh]

A chase for me is looking less likely right now.

The models have really converged nicely and the suggested track over Cape Hatteras is just not my cup of tea, for a couple of reasons:

* There's a high risk of a bust-- i.e., if the cyclone shifts just a little further E, it misses.

* Even if it the center does cross the Cape technically, the best conditions will be well offshore, to the E.

* Hatteras landfalls are usually not very strong. Even a solid Cat 3 is unusual there.

* I don't believe the Outer Banks are very accessible in a hurricane situation.

I haven't ruled out a chase, but the odds seem against it this afternoon, unless the models shift W again. Who knows? (I believe the NHC's current forecast is too far W and will shift E in the 5 pm EDT package.)

This having been said, it looks like this could be an interesting situation developing for you folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and you could really see some yumminess out of this. That would be awesome-- it's been too long for you guys.

[saltysenior]

[HurricaneJosh]

I think even if this hits the Outer banks, it's going to be a run-of-the-mill event for that region.

But I am very, very curious to see what happens past NC. I won't be chasing anything above NC-- you guys know how I am-- but I'll enjoy watching everyone else enjoy it.

[Cory]

[Ed Lizard]

Wouldn't the Euro forecast justify a possible trip to Cape Charles or Ocean City? Ian and the whole DC gang could come in a Suburban and follow and take shots of the i-Cyclone team in action.

[HurricaneJosh]

Wouldn't the Euro forecast justify a possible trip to Cape Charles or Ocean City? Ian and the whole DC gang could come in a Suburban and follow and take shots of the i-Cyclone team in action.

There's a tiny chance I might come do a Long Island thing if 1) the cyclone is modeled to come up the coast fast and 2) it won't be scraping the entire Mid-Atlantic along the way. It would need to be as "fast and clean" landfall, like other historic Long Island hurricanes.

I wouldn't normally go after something above 35N, but as a native Long Islander, there's a touch of nostalgia to it, I suppose-- not to mention I get to see my mother in NYC. Also, this would be a super-easy expedition, as I'd do it with my best friend from high school, and we'd use his car, etc. Would be very low-cost and convenient.

I definitely won't do VA, MD, DE, or NJ, as those location will be left of the center if it stays offshore, and right of the center if it treks over land-- neither of which is ideal for hardcore hurricane conditions.

Probably not going to bother with Irene-- but if the setup looks kind of sexy, I might do Long Island.

[mattmfm]

There's a tiny chance I might come do a Long Island thing if 1) the cyclone is modeled to come up the coast fast and 2) it won't be scraping the entire Mid-Atlantic along the way. It would need to be as "fast and clean" landfall, like other historic Long Island hurricanes.

I wouldn't normally go after something above 35N, but as a native Long Islander, there's a touch of nostalgia to it, I suppose-- not to mention I get to see my mother in NYC. Also, this would be a super-easy expedition, as I'd do it with my best friend from high school, and we'd use his car, etc. Would be very low-cost and convenient.

Probably not going to bother-- but if the setup looks kind of sexy, I might.

I think, if things work out right and it comes of the coast, nostalgia is worth it. Give it another two days, then camp out a spot at the tip of Buzzards Bay.

[eyewall]

I am thinking about driving to West Islip to see my brother

[HurricaneJosh]

I think, if things work out right and it comes of the coast, nostalgia is worth it. Give it another two days, then camp out a spot at the tip of Buzzards Bay.

Yeah, there's something to be said for that.

Even though I've been in a bunch of Gulf/Caribbean 'canes now, and I definitely prefer those, I remember being a tropical-dude pup on Long Island, and the idea of coming back two decades later for the Northeast-style 'cane I grew up with is kind of... fun in a weird way. Almost touchin'.

[k***]

I definitely won't do VA, ND, DE, or NJ, as those location will be left of the center if it stays offshore, and right of the center if it treks over land-- neither of which is ideal for hardcore hurricane conditions.

Just go to cape henry and catch some 138mph winds