A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yea I guess I would be an adrenaline rush to get back to it before it hits... my hunch though is that it doesn't have a direct hit on Long Island but stays inland in NJ. That NYC record is in the bag for you guys... you will easily surpass it. Thanks, Phil.... you've been pretty much spot on with the Euro sniffing out the right track. What do you think of a big storm surge into NYC? ABC is now showing that NJ track over EWR as a minimal hurricane that you were talking about and calling for a 5-10 feet surge that covers all of Lower Manhattan up to Canal Street-- shades of 1821. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks, everyone, for the well wishes. I owe some of you individual responses, and those are coming, And, thanks, winterymix, for the cool traffic links. We're approaching the VA border and making good time. The roads are in great shape now. Lord knows if we'll make it to Landfall No. 2 in time-- but, hey, we're just going for bonus points on the way home. As Keith said, even if we miss the cyclone, it's nice to be hauling azz home in the wee hours instead of spending all night in a hot, pitch-black hotel. We're racing N-- at five times the speed of Irene-- and I'm expecting we'll overtake the cyclone's latitude within the next two hours. If the center looks to be flirting with a N NJ landfall, we may abort the Long Island plan and instead head to the Jersey Shore. Let's see. Hope you make it, Josh! Landfall is going to be 10-11 AM so you have some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks, everyone, for the well wishes. I owe some of you individual responses, and those are coming, And, thanks, winterymix, for the cool traffic links. We're approaching the VA border and making good time. The roads are in great shape now. Lord knows if we'll make it to Landfall No. 2 in time-- but, hey, we're just going for bonus points on the way home. As Keith said, even if we miss the cyclone, it's nice to be hauling azz home in the wee hours instead of spending all night in a hot, pitch-black hotel. We're racing N-- at five times the speed of Irene-- and I'm expecting we'll overtake the cyclone's latitude within the next two hours. If the center looks to be flirting with a N NJ landfall, we may abort the Long Island plan and instead head to the Jersey Shore. Let's see. My old stomping grounds for 39 years Lots of tornado warnings all over central and south Jersey tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks, everyone, for the well wishes. I owe some of you individual responses, and those are coming, And, thanks, winterymix, for the cool traffic links. We're approaching the VA border and making good time. The roads are in great shape now. Lord knows if we'll make it to Landfall No. 2 in time-- but, hey, we're just going for bonus points on the way home. As Keith said, even if we miss the cyclone, it's nice to be hauling azz home in the wee hours instead of spending all night in a hot, pitch-black hotel. We're racing N-- at five times the speed of Irene-- and I'm expecting we'll overtake the cyclone's latitude within the next two hours. If the center looks to be flirting with a N NJ landfall, we may abort the Long Island plan and instead head to the Jersey Shore. Let's see. nice. hope it works out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks, Phil.... you've been pretty much spot on with the Euro sniffing out the right track. What do you think of a big storm surge into NYC? ABC is now showing that NJ track over EWR as a minimal hurricane that you were talking about and calling for a 5-10 feet surge that covers all of Lower Manhattan up to Canal Street-- shades of 1821. 5-10 feet seems a bit excessive... I'd say we likely see verification on the lower side of that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I hope he makes it. Sure,, it'll be a transitioning slopcane, maybe not even 65 knots, but I think solid tree damage and a surge better than expected from a high end TS/barely a cane as the wind field expands. GFS shows 60 mph winds tomorrow lunch time-ish near Montauk 6 hours post landfall 42 Leewater Avenue, Massapequa 11758. Corner of Curlew, my home for Belle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued a notice about possible road closures on midday Friday.“If sustained wind speeds exceed 60 mph, all of the following bridges will be closed to all traffic: George Washington Bridge, Tappan Zee bridge, all bridges operated by the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority, and the following Hudson River bridges: Bear Mountain Bridge, Newburgh-Beacon, Mid-Hudson (Poughkeepsie), Kingston-Rhinecliff, and Rip Van Winkle (Catskill) ,” the notice states. “The New York State Thruway and possibly other major highways will also be closed if sustained wind speeds exceed 60 mph; further closings will be announced as the storm progresses New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said that at 6 p.m. Friday, State Route 72 will be closed to eastbound travel. “All lanes will be used in moving traffic westward,” Christie wrote through his Twitter.com account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 I so appreciate all the info and well wishes-- and, winterymix, thanks again for this info! Keith had heard that, too. If they mean a true, official, sustained 60 mph then we're totally fine, because I doubt winds will get that high in the city proper-- at least not at the surface. Approaching Richmond, VA. Hitting some rain, but still making good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wave hi to DT for us, Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 There was a report of 70+ gust earlier today in Richmond... more than 75% in the area without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Random comment: We're passing an exit called Powhite Parkway. Weird. Do they mean "Po' White" or is that some Native American name or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 [Midnight] Authorities shut down the Port of New York and the Port for Long Island Sound late Saturday as Hurricane Irene closed in on the New York City area. Also, the Palisades Interstate Parkway entrance to the George Washington Bridge in New York City has been closed due to weather conditions, according to a statement from the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Oh, back to wx stuff: Cory's Kestrel performed beautifully and yielded valuable data today. As you guys will remember, I left it in the hotel room in downtown Beaufort, NC, to get an additional perspective on the pressure. The lowest pressure was 953.0 mb, recorded at 8:58 am. That value corroborates nicely with the recon values, although the timing seems later than I would expect, given that the center was near the area at around 8 am. But it's worth noting that the pressure was below 954 mb for a long time-- from 7:56 to 9:21 am. This suggests that even the cyclone's core had a rather flat gradient. By the way, I talked with the hotel manager and her coworker when we returned to Beaufort. I asked if they experienced the lull-- I was curious if the eye extended that far W. They did have the lull, and furthermore, both women remarked that the backside seemed much more severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Current recon mission VDM plots and 11PM NHC track. Extrap from the last three VDM plots would actually bring the COC into New Jersey a bit west of the official track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's 1:50 am and it looks like we're just about to overtake Irene's latitude. We'e just about to hit Fredericksburg, VA, and it see on Dover radar that the eye is just a hair SE of the MD/DE border. We're gaining' on her! By the way, that inner W eyewall-- just off the MD coast-- looks surprisingly well-defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's 1:50 am and it looks like we're just about to overtake Irene's latitude. We'e just about to hit Fredericksburg, VA, and it see on Dover radar that the eye is just a hair SE of the MD/DE border. We're gaining' on her! By the way, that inner W eyewall-- just off the MD coast-- looks surprisingly well-defined. Wallops Island, VA has a NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 NJ is going to be a fookin nightmare. Multiple tornado warnings have occurred along I95. TWC saying the NWS has confirmed one in Newark, DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just clearing Baltimore-- aiming to get in the vicinity of JFK by around 7 am *if* the Verrazano Bridge is open. That's a big if-- so we have a Plan B, a Plan C, and a Plan D. Moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'm following the eye on radar, and d*mn-- we really are racing this thing up the coast. It's almost like a big joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just clearing Baltimore-- aiming to get in the vicinity of JFK by around 7 am *if* the Verrazano Bridge is open. That's a big if-- so we have a Plan B, a Plan C, and a Plan D. Moderate rain. Haha, how fast are you guys driving Josh? Conditions are "Primo!" here.... we've already had gusts over 60 mph and lots of heavy rain and NYC is within one inch of its all time monthly rainfall record set back in September 1882! There was a 4 feet surge at low tide and the eye is progged to be up here between 8 AM and 10 AM! Right around high tide (which is between 7 AM and 8 AM on the south shore and the Battery and around 11 AM on the north shore.) We could have up to a 10-11 feet surge by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks like the eye will make landfall somewhere between ACY and Long Beach..... take some intermediate points and you get Belmar to JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'm following the eye on radar, and d*mn-- we really are racing this thing up the coast. It's almost like a big joke! Whats your destination? My friends from Rutgers are camped out in the parking garage of the Monmouth Medical Center in Long Branch, a couple blocks from the waterfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks like the eye will make landfall somewhere between ACY and Long Beach..... take some intermediate points and you get Belmar to JFK Actually, if current speed/motion continues landfall will probably end up between Sea Isle City and Brigantine, NJ...In about 2-2 1/2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Actually, if current speed/motion continues landfall will probably end up between Sea Isle City and Brigantine, NJ...In about 2-2 1/2 hours. Thanks, so on that trajectory, it could actually pass right over Manhattan or even slightly to the west? Most of the projected tracks had it over JFK or just to the east, while grazing the Jersey Shore just before getting up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 BTW it's pouring like crazy here, and with the high winds, it actually looks like a blizzard out there--- near 0 vis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Hey Josh, Will you even be able to get into NJ? If you can, try to get on the AC Expressway and head to the shore. I doubt you'll be able to get on the Goethals Bridge into Staten Island. I haven't lived there in a few years but they were pretty quick to close the bridges during bad storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Hey Josh, Will you even be able to get into NJ? If you can, try to get on the AC Expressway and head to the shore. I doubt you'll be able to get on the Goethals Bridge into Staten Island. I haven't lived there in a few years but they were pretty quick to close the bridges during bad storms. ACExp is closed eastbound. Use U.S. 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 ACExp is closed eastbound. Use U.S. 30. Yea I'm guessing he's going to have problems in NJ before he gets to Staten Island and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yea I'm guessing he's going to have problems in NJ before he gets to Staten Island and Long Island. With the speed Irene is trucking north, I'd recommend an intercept somewhere in Monmouth County. By the time he crosses the whole state she will have made landfall, and the roads to all the barrier islands from ocean county southward have been shut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Thanks, so on that trajectory, it could actually pass right over Manhattan or even slightly to the west? Most of the projected tracks had it over JFK or just to the east, while grazing the Jersey Shore just before getting up here. Two extraps... Extrap of current radar would eventually have a track around Brooklyn/New York, after the aforementioned inital NJ landfall zone in my previous post. Extrap of previous recon data shows landfall on the west side of Atlantic City, and then eventually a track between Brooklyn and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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