Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Since it's been a while... VDM plots from the last three missions and tracks from the last four NHC advisories. As you can see...The good news is that it's NW of the estimated 1AM position...Bad news is it's still a good bit east of the prime 5/8PM tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Josh I really would like to really know how bad the surge is it seems it might pass to your east so you won't have a good handle on it but any info is good i'm supossed to be on a family vacay in corrola so anything you got helps me thanks in advance and i hope you get a good show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It is currently impossible to make it to Ocracoke Island because the only way you can get there is via Ferry, which is currently not operational in this tropical cyclone. The track does suggest that Beaufort will be on the eastern eyewall at best, but it seems if they can take I-70 to the end of the Peninsula, they can still snag the northern eyewall that looks pretty robust still. Looks like several others decided to run a bit NE up US 70, up towards Davis. Things ramping up...MRH sustained at 35mph and gusting to 60mph now. KMRH 270656Z AUTO 06030G52KT 1 1/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN013 OVC018 26/24 A2903 RMK AO2 PK WND 06052/0651 PRESFR SLP830 P0034 T02560244 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good: After stabilizing on a northward motion the last few hours, it almost looks like there's a little west in it on the last few radar frames. Bad: The south and west sides of the storm have been completely gutted by sheer, and there isn't really an eye, just a pseudo northern strongest band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hey, guys-- we woke up to the wind really howling and whistling. Yeah, it's coming. The boats out in the harbor are getting tossed around. The outer bands have a good kick for a Cat 1, I'll say that. Pressure is 981.8 mb and rapidly falling. Were going to head out E to Harkers Island-- maybe further. We've come this far-- we want a piece of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Conditions here in Beaufort right on the water front deteriorating rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Conditions here in Beaufort right on the water front deteriorating rapidly. Yeah, I'm surprised how quickly it's ripping. It's like all of a sudden-- whoa! KMRH having gusts over 50 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hey, guys-- we woke up to the wind really howling and whistling. Yeah, it's coming. The boats out in the harbor are getting tossed around. The outer bands have a good kick for a Cat 1, I'll say that. Pressure is 981.8 mb and rapidly falling. Were going to head out E to Harkers Island-- maybe further. We've come this far-- we want a piece of this. A couple things I'll warn you of that you probably know: Harkers Island has a draw bridge that they either lower the arms on or open when the winds reach a certain level so you can get stuck there for a long time. Also, the road east of Beaufort floods very easily and I've seen dozens of power lines fall over it as well and access be blocked for days (when you go east of Beaufort and turn right at the high school the only ways out are that road and the ferry at Cedar Island). I guess the point I want to make is that if you go there you could be there for a long time, maybe even days. All that said, at the E end of Harkers Island there's a completely exposed point that would be a great spot to experience the full force of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 last couple of radar frames actually suggest the storm might be making a wobble to the west... this might be just what you guys need to say in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 last couple of radar frames actually suggest the storm might be making a wobble to the west... this might be just what you guys need to say in the northern eyewall Omg, that would be mega-awesome. That is what we need. It sure feels like it's coming-- wind is ripping, howling. It's making that funny hurricane sound. The sailboats out in the Sounds dancing and tossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 A couple things I'll warn you of that you probably know: Harkers Island has a draw bridge that they either lower the arms on or open when the winds reach a certain level so you can get stuck there for a long time. Also, the road east of Beaufort floods very easily and I've seen dozens of power lines fall over it as well and access be blocked for days (when you go east of Beaufort and turn right at the high school the only ways out are that road and the ferry at Cedar Island). I guess the point I want to make is that if you go there you could be there for a long time, maybe even days. All that said, at the E end of Harkers Island there's a completely exposed point that would be a great spot to experience the full force of the storm. Wow-- thanks very much for this insider's information. It does affect our thinking a little. How incredibly fortunate to have a Beaufort native in this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Omg, that would be mega-awesome. That is what we need. It sure feels like it's coming-- wind is ripping, howling. It's making that funny hurricane sound. The sailboats out in the Sounds dancing and tossing. If you want to get the max possible winds though, I still think a roadtrip is in order, since the strongest stuff is all on the eastern side of the eyewall dropsodes and SFMR are still consistently showing at minimum 70 knot winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Recon also confirms this wobble... latest recon pass is exactly due north from the last one with no eastward component of motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm assuming you have access to a good radar feed so you see this, but it is definitely at least wobbling to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This also bodes really "well" for a landfall somewhere between Toms River NJ and JFK airport, which all the major models have consistently been showing. Man, I'm going to be like 3 miles EAST of the center of the eye in the right front quadrant-- first time EVER for me. And with the mechanics of a large storm like this, it should still be a Cat 1 up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This also bodes really "well" for a landfall somewhere between Toms River NJ and JFK airport, which all the major models have consistently been showing. Man, I'm going to be like 3 miles EAST of the center of the eye in the right front quadrant-- first time EVER for me. And with the mechanics of a large storm like this, it should still be a Cat 1 up here! not sure about that one... but we can talk about it in the forecast thread if you want... lets not clog up Josh's thread. If this westward wobble continues for much longer even parts of the east eyewall quad might be able to skim the NC peninsula. A due north track at this point would still put mainland I-70 in this eastern core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 The wind is ripping roof shingles off of the hotel-- they's flying past the balcony and raining into the street. Lights are flickering-- power was out before but came back on. Wind making a growly, "airplany" sound offshore, to the S. 978 mb and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guys, what's the latest motion of the center? Last I checked, it was kind of heading toward us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The wind is ripping roof shingles off of the hotel-- they's flying past the balcony and raining into the street. Lights are flickering-- power was out before but came back on. Wind making a growly, "airplany" sound offshore, to the S. 978 mb and falling. Winds have increased in the last 30 minutes here now gusting to mid 40's maybe 50ish. Starting to hear that rumble as they come in and its getting worse by the minute. Clear NNW jog Josh you will likely catch the northern eye if not the eye itself if it continues !!! Whats your max gust so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guys, what's the latest motion of the center? Last I checked, it was kind of heading toward us. Correct... the westward wobble continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Guys, what's the latest motion of the center? Last I checked, it was kind of heading toward us. Per the last two recon fixes, essentially due north. It's pretty much due south of Beaufort/Harkers Island area at this time. I'll throw up another map when the latest VDM comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 not sure about that one... but we can talk about it in the forecast thread if you want... lets not clog up Josh's thread. If this westward wobble continues for much longer even parts of the east eyewall quad might be able to skim the NC peninsula. A due north track at this point would still put mainland I-70 in this eastern core. Phil, that would be fine, but I'd rather you explain to Jake that a storm doesn't need to cut up west of the city to produce a big surge in NJ or NYC (think 1944, Donna, etc.). Geography of the coastline and size of the storm dictates that. I hate it when people assume that just because they are west of the center they wont get a big surge. It's not as simple as that. We're in the surge thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Winds have increased in the last 30 minutes here now gusting to mid 40's maybe 50ish. Starting to hear that rumble as they come in and its getting worse by the minute. Clear NNW jog Josh you will likely catch the northern eye if not the eye itself if it continues !!! Whats your max gust so far? We haven't started measuring-- about to go out now-- but KMRH is gusting over 50 kt. And, yeah, we're totally hearing that weird growly sound. The hotel roof seems to be losing its entire surface! Correct... the westward wobble continues. Awesome! Per the last two recon fixes, essentially due north. It's pretty much due south of Beaufort/Harkers Island area at this time. I'll throw up another map when the latest VDM comes in. Cool-- please do. It is so helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Cool-- please do. It is so helpful. As promised... Clearly shows a wobble from earlier movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 A roof shingle just flew onto the balcony and smashed into the french doors. According to my partner, it just missed my neck. Angry, howly sound to the S-- sounds like an odd mixture of airplanes and dogs growling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Yes he has an kestrel 4500 I believe for wind obs along with pressure readings and a multitude of different variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 We haven't started measuring-- about to go out now-- but KMRH is gusting over 50 kt. And, yeah, we're totally hearing that weird growly sound. The hotel roof seems to be losing its entire surface! Awesome! Cool-- please do. It is so helpful. Josh northern eyewall should get to you in about an hour or so. She doesn't look too bad and fl level winds are back 100kts. She is clearly moving W of due north for the time being and local TV met Skip Waters said this was possible as she felt land that she might shift west a bit. You are looking very decent for getting the eye Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Gerald Satterwhite reported a 93 mph gust from a handheld wind anemometer about 15 or so minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 As posted on other thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 A roof shingle just flew onto the balcony and smashed into the french doors. According to my partner, it just missed my neck. ... As was noted way back in this thread, you are the one who is supposed to be capturing any possible decapitation on video, not starring in someone else's decapitation video! Watch yourself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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