Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I dunno, I've been wrong plenty of times, but here's the IR with the forecast point at the end of my green arrow. That's a hell of a "wobble", isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah, for sure. It'll come out while I'm just getting my luggage. Also, Scott747 says recon is headed in Should get another fix within an hour. They are E and will be making a pass through the NE quad and heading into the center for the 2am advisory. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Also, Scott747 says recon is headed in Speaking of recon, here's the plots from the last three missions. A new pass of the COC should be coming shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We will be arriving at Beaufort (just East of Morehead City, NC) around Noon! Good luck Josh. We'll be doing live streaming as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is looking good. Helluva tough call as you're basically guaranteed landfall farther north with slightly less assurance farther south. I think you're making the right choice though by heading to NC. Hey, thanks. It really is a toguh call. Just landed now-- so I have another hour or so to decide. I think going to NC, especially Morehead City, is risky. The NHC has her going to 77.8W, probably a bit farther between points. Last 5 advisory positions: 11am 76.8W 2pm 77.2W 5pm 77.3W 8pm 77.4W 11pm 77.3W If you want your best shot at a big cane then come to NC and go to Morehead. If you don't want to fly across the country and risk striking out, I'd probably either hit the northern outer banks or go to Long Island. I'd definitely check the 0z Euro before I did either. Dude, this last paragraph perfectly captures the paradox of this whole setup. It's a bit frustrating, honestly! P.S. Agreed-- need to see that 00Z Euro, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I won't be able to chase because have to work the storm (the met curse). Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Chicago Storm, thanks for posting the recon plots. As it gets closer and we fine-tune, that kind of thing is going to become more and more central to our decision-making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like 00z UKMET went pretty substantially west, landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington (I can only be so precise looking sideways at that silly french map.) At any rate, good luck, don't envy your decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think the probability of landfall near Morehead is unraveling...more like outer banks or even just a graze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Phil882, what's your latest forecast Re: landfall location/intensity? And what do you think of these murmurs about a rightward nudge? Its true that the GFS did trend towards the east and seems to be capturing this "wobble" pretty well. However, I don't think this system is starting the NNE turn yet and in the last couple of radar frames the system seem to be wobbling back to the west a little bit. I'm still thinking my track will hold, with a landfall somewhere in between Morehead City and The Outer Banks... hopefully on the left side of that zone for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Chicago Storm, thanks for posting the recon plots. As it gets closer and we fine-tune, that kind of thing is going to become more and more central to our decision-making. This storm is going to make you lose some hair! They're telling us we might have to evacuate. "Have to" as in mandatory. Not going lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just checked the main thread...looks like we are still right of the forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Go north. More historic potential ... Americans are better than Europeans. Really... Don't listen to me. I wont take any blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just checked the main thread...looks like we are still right of the forecast track. This could wobble back west...but this is my reasoning for thinking the eastern solutions will be more accurate near HSE...even if it wobbles back west some, we've still gained a lot of latitude compared to the longitude west predicted by the western models. I'm not sure that can be made up, but we shall see. Also, as TCs gain latitude on the EC, the bias of the models is definitely left...less so in the SE compared to the M.A. or NE, but still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just landed at JFK. We will be arriving at Beaufort (just East of Morehead City, NC) around Noon! Good luck Josh. We'll be doing live streaming as long as possible. Beaufort? Dude, I'm impressed! Nice! Good luck to you, too! P.S. Have you heard anything Re: Carteret County being under mandatory evacuation? My hotel in Morehead City insists this is not the case. I won't be able to chase because have to work the storm (the met curse). Enjoy it! Ugh, bummer! That ain't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 For now it's definitely showing a heading just E of the track - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This could wobble back west...but this is my reasoning for thinking the eastern solutions will be more accurate near HSE...even if it wobbles back west some, we've still gained a lot of latitude compared to the longitude west predicted by the western models. I'm not sure that can be made up, but we shall see. Also, as TCs gain latitude on the EC, the bias of the models is definitely left...less so in the SE compared to the M.A. or NE, but still there. Probably the right call. I don't think the western half of guidance is ever the right way to go with a LF north of Florida. I was always a littler concerned that models never got the storm very far inland. When the GFS showed a hit for Albany last night, I accepted the fact that PVD had a pretty good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just landed at JFK. Beaufort? Dude, I'm impressed! Nice! Good luck to you, too! P.S. Have you heard anything Re: Carteret County being under mandatory evacuation? My hotel in Morehead City insists this is not the case. Ugh, bummer! That ain't right. They are under mandatory evacuations, but we talked to local officials in Morehead earlier and it sounds like there should be no issues getting in. We brought our EMA and Media credentials anyways, but they said they are not asking or checking for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 careful with those recon observations... they are tracking the inner eyewall still... which seems to be having some trochoidal oscillations within the outer eyewall which seems to have continued mainly due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like 00z UKMET went pretty substantially west, landfall somewhere between Morehead and Wilmington (I can only be so precise looking sideways at that silly french map.) At any rate, good luck, don't envy your decision. Ha ha ha, "silly French map". Thanks for the info. I think the probability of landfall near Morehead is unraveling...more like outer banks or even just a graze. Its true that the GFS did trend towards the east and seems to be capturing this "wobble" pretty well. However, I don't think this system is starting the NNE turn yet and in the last couple of radar frames the system seem to be wobbling back to the west a little bit. I'm still thinking my track will hold, with a landfall somewhere in between Morehead City and The Outer Banks... hopefully on the left side of that zone for you Thanks, Phil. This storm is going to make you lose some hair! They're telling us we might have to evacuate. "Have to" as in mandatory. Not going lol. Wow-- crazy! Just checked the main thread...looks like we are still right of the forecast track. Cool. Go north. More historic potential ... Americans are better than Europeans. Really... Don't listen to me. I wont take any blame. Hush, you. This could wobble back west...but this is my reasoning for thinking the eastern solutions will be more accurate near HSE...even if it wobbles back west some, we've still gained a lot of latitude compared to the longitude west predicted by the western models. I'm not sure that can be made up, but we shall see. Also, as TCs gain latitude on the EC, the bias of the models is definitely left...less so in the SE compared to the M.A. or NE, but still there. I hear ya, I hear ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 They are under mandatory evacuations, but we talked to local officials in Morehead earlier and it sounds like there should be no issues getting in. We brought our EMA and Media credentials anyways, but they said they are not asking or checking for them. OK, so, it's an official thing but they're not enforcing it too rigorously? Thanks for the info-- appreciate the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Josh how much time you have to decide? I'd seriously consider an LI chase if I were you...unless you have the ability to get very close to HSE...maybe barely south of it but not actually on the outer banks...still on mainland? I think the south fork of LI has a much higher probability of seeing hurricane force winds than Morehead city...even if the max potential there is less. Morehead (or just east) will get creamed if the storm actually comes far enough west, but I have serious doubts about that at the moment. I'm worried that the western models like the Ukie/GFDL (also the 12z Euro) are going to bust on their 06z-12z track by being too bullish with the westward component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So as I'm bored and waiting on the Euro/sleep to come, I thought I'd break down how the 12z Euro is doing since most people seem to be jumping ship to the GFS and its less than reliable friends. This is the 18h most recent 12z Euro, which would be 2am EDT. The hurricane icon is the 11pm EDT position, and the little flags are the center position at 1:05am EDT (if you've looked at the center fix, it's on the left side of the flags). Anyway, since this is just a little picture, few things to note. 12z Euro was slow, however, the distance between the Euro center and the 11pm advisory was only 7 miles. The subsequent recon fix is approx 20 miles NNE of the Euro 2am plot. So, although it does appear that Irene is indeed east of the Euro, it's like maybe 8 miles east of the Euro. So, I think we can presume that the Euro will probably be about 30 miles off on it's 18h position, with over 20 miles due to it being too slow, and less than 10 miles attributed to it being too far west. Just some food for thought as we wait.... edit: that is a horrible picture, I forgot to turn off the satellite overlay...o well, that's what happens at 2am. I hope you can kinda see what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Euro takes it just west of HSE. Given the satellite discussions, Morehead City may be more of a gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So as I'm bored and waiting on the Euro/sleep to come, I thought I'd break down how the 12z Euro is doing since most people seem to be jumping ship to the GFS and its less than reliable friends. This is the 18h most recent 12z Euro, which would be 2am EDT. The hurricane icon is the 11pm EDT position, and the little flags are the center position at 1:05am EDT (if you've looked at the center fix, it's on the left side of the flags). Anyway, since this is just a little picture, few things to note. 12z Euro was slow, however, the distance between the Euro center and the 11pm advisory was only 7 miles. The subsequent recon fix is approx 20 miles NNE of the Euro 2am plot. So, although it does appear that Irene is indeed east of the Euro, it's like maybe 8 miles east of the Euro. So, I think we can presume that the Euro will probably be about 30 miles off on it's 18h position, with over 20 miles due to it being too slow, and less than 10 miles attributed to it being too far west. Just some food for thought as we wait.... edit: that is a horrible picture, I forgot to turn off the satellite overlay...o well, that's what happens at 2am. I hope you can kinda see what I'm talking about. I think the bigger worry about the 12z and the supporting 00z models is what happens through 12z. I think they are unraveling as we speak and it could get worse in the next 6 hours. We'll def need to see a good wobble back west to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z Euro still taking it significantly west between 06z ans 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 00z Euro still taking it significantly west between 06z ans 12z. ECWMF just initialized on the wunderground site... will post NC landfall pics when the time interval arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I thought it was pretty neat that it nailed the east jog between 0z and 6z that we witnessed this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ECWMF landfall in 42 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Awesome map-- thanks, Phil! I feel like I would be cool with that if it verified, because MHX is square in the left eyewall. But the rightward end is of course concerning. Will it continue? Can you post this same kind of map for the farther-N landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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