WeatherNC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hey, what's up, guys? I'm on the plane headed to JFK-- will land at 12:45 am, where my bud from high school is picking me up. We're going to hit the road immediately and try to get past the I95 metro cluster before daybreak. Our desire is to get to MHX by 9 am or so. Thanks to Scott, Dunkman, WeatherWarrior, and WeatherNC for the navigation tips-- they are greatly appreciated! Welcome to Eastern NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think you should commit to NC yet, Josh. Look at the latest spaghetti. There are an awful lot of solutions out to sea there. Here's what it looks like for NY/RI/CT/MA: If you stay north, it would seem that you are almost 100% assured of being able to get in the RFQ. I am only suggesting that you don't make your final decision on your target until you're on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think you are making the right choice Josh... sorry if I sounded a bit pushy last night, but I strongly felt that was the way to go I have a bunch of friends that are actually staying in Beaufort, NC, which is just a tad to the east of Morehead City, NC... you might want to see if you can venture a little further east in the event the center goes in between the Outer Banks and Morehead City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 What a tough chase with what will be make or break tough decisions. Best of luck and good decision making Josh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think you should commit to NC yet, Josh. Look at the latest spaghetti. There are an awful lot of solutions out to sea there. Here's what it looks like for NY/RI/CT/MA: If you stay north, it would seem that you are almost 100% assured of being able to get in the RFQ. I am only suggesting that you don't make your final decision on your target until you're on the ground. Agree with that, but what I believe we are seeing is this north jog after Abaco in initialization, which is the interaction from the front. After that the front misses and the guidance corrects, west again, with landfall close to Emerald Isle. Unsure if this storm gets to 78W, but this east shift, which should be seen on the 0z guidance, is likely a result of the influence above being overdone, and the Bogue Banks to MHX seems high impact, being on the right side. 11pm OFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Goto Nags Head or Kill devil hills if they didn't evecuate. A northeast wind is onshore there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I don't think you should commit to NC yet, Josh. Look at the latest spaghetti. There are an awful lot of solutions out to sea there. Here's what it looks like for NY/RI/CT/MA: If you stay north, it would seem that you are almost 100% assured of being able to get in the RFQ. I am only suggesting that you don't make your final decision on your target until you're on the ground. Hey, Bob-- nice to see you here! You're right-- I don't need to commit to anything just yet. I have to say, this has been one of my most challenging chases in terms of basci decision making. I've never had to decide between targets as absurdly far apart as Morehead City, NC, and Chatham, MA. There's something almost surreal about it. In fact, my decision to fly into NYC was more a throw-my-hands-up kind of thing than the result of any real insights Re: the cyclone's destination. Scott747 and I just decided that NYC was a good midpoint-- essentially delaying any real decision until the picture became clearer. P.S. Would you mind archiving IR floater, visible floater, radar, and any other sexy imagery as the cyclone comes ashore? I'd be deeply indebted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 So who else is going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I think you are making the right choice Josh... sorry if I sounded a bit pushy last night, but I strongly felt that was the way to go I have a bunch of friends that are actually staying in Beaufort, NC, which is just a tad to the east of Morehead City, NC... you might want to see if you can venture a little further east in the event the center goes in between the Outer Banks and Morehead City. Hush-- I didn't thing you were pushy. I totally appreciate the insights. What a tough chase with what will be make or break tough decisions. Best of luck and good decision making Josh! It is a bit difficult to pick a target with this one. Thanks, dude. Agree with that, but what I believe we are seeing is this north jog after Abaco in initialization, which is the interaction from the front. After that the front misses and the guidance corrects, west again, with landfall close to Emerald Isle. Unsure if this storm gets to 78W, but this east shift, which should be seen on the 0z guidance, is likely a result of the influence above being overdone, and the Bogue Banks to MHX seems high impact, being on the right side. 11pm OFC Dude, I so hope you're right. By the way, I'm totally wubbin' the 11 pm forecast track. Total porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Would you mind archiving IR floater, visible floater, radar, and any other sexy imagery as the cyclone comes ashore? I'd be deeply indebted. WTF do you think I've been doing for the last 24+ hours??? Hahahaha!!!!!!!! Again, not every single image, but plenty of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hi Josh! Hope things all work out for your chase in eastern NC!!! My hubby would be very jealous...he'd give up a body part to be there... Let us know all the good stuff!!! You and your friends, take care out there. --Turtle (on shift through the weekend at BOX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Might want to think about revising east, Josh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hush-- I didn't thing you were pushy. I totally appreciate the insights. It is a bit difficult to pick a target with this one. Thanks, dude. Dude, I so hope you're right. By the way, I'm totally wubbin' the 11 pm forecast track. Total porn. If you do end up in NC, would be looking at RDU for the trip back, 95 to NYC hell from here! Also, just made the trip from ADK, take the bypass round Richmond, 95 S was cut to one lane through the city, adding about 1 hr to the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 BTW, Josh, I don't know if you're keeping with any of the other threads or whatnot, but Irene's IR presentation is becoming real serious eye candy. We may have a CAT4 soon. Pressure is dropping. Also, I WILL be saving EVERY image beginning sometime tomorrow night, other than overnight. I confess I won't be able to stay up for 48 hours without sleep, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Welcome to Eastern NC! Aw, thanks! Do they like sassy, liberal Californians there? WTF do you think I've been doing for the last 24+ hours??? Hahahaha!!!!!!!! Again, not every single image, but plenty of them. OK, cool. Will you get every image as it's crossing the coast? That's the important part. I treasure those images afterward-- like images of a past lover. Hi Josh! Hope things all work out for your chase in eastern NC!!! My hubby would be very jealous...he'd give up a body part to be there... Let us know all the good stuff!!! You and your friends, take care out there. --Turtle (on shift through the weekend at BOX) Thanks, Eleanor-- that's really sweet of you. I can't even *imagine* what your weekend is going to be like. Omg. Between this and the tornadoes a couple of months ago, you must be ready for a serious vacation. P.S. Your husband needs to just get out and chase one of these days! Might want to think about revising east, Josh... Oh, yeah? How come? If you do end up in NC, would be looking at RDU for the trip back, 95 to NYC hell from here! Also, just made the trip from ADK, take the bypass round Richmond, 95 S was cut to one lane through the city, adding about 1 hr to the trip. Thanks. I have a feeling the trip back up to NYC is going to be a huge pain in the butt-- like a walk o' shame after a night of heavy partying. Ugh. BTW, Josh, I don't know if you're keeping with any of the other threads or whatnot, but Irene's IR presentation is becoming real serious eye candy. We may have a CAT4 soon. Pressure is dropping. Also, I WILL be saving EVERY image beginning sometime tomorrow night, other than overnight. I confess I won't be able to stay up for 48 hours without sleep, lol. Just please don't sleep through the landfall, wherever it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh, yeah? How come? Models are starting to come back around to an OBX brush. HWRF, NAM, GFS have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just please don't sleep through the landfall, wherever it is! No, I won't do that, even if it means waking up at 3AM! I'll get everything archived for several hours before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just ran a floater loop, and the eye is way east of the forecast points. Even allowing for the inevitable wobbles, Irene seems to be further east than I would expect right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just ran a floater loop, and the eye is way east of the forecast points. Even allowing for the inevitable wobbles, Irene seems to be further east than I would expect right now. There ya go, Josh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I have a bunch of friends that are actually staying in Beaufort, NC, . Hope they don't bite of more then they can chew. NWS forecast for Sat in Beaufort. Saturday: Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 81. Southeast wind 70 to 90 mph increasing to between 85 and 105 mph. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 64 is out the question, not only is it too far north for the eastern cut, but an inferior road compared to 264/795/117... Route is, and all the locals are agreeing, 95 - to exit 119B in NC (264/795 E), then would drop S to Goldsboro, and hit 70 east towards MHX, bisecting 24 for the final short cut. Plan on about a 2hr trip once you get off 95 and head east I agree 795/70 is a more relaxing drive on nicer wide roads, but 64/13/264/17 can be quicker. I used to live in Goldsboro and spent lots of time driving around E. North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just ran a floater loop, and the eye is way east of the forecast points. Even allowing for the inevitable wobbles, Irene seems to be further east than I would expect right now. Interesting. One thing I've learned with Irene is not to overreact to 1) single model runs and 2) wobbles on IR/radar loops. So I'm hesitant to read too much into it. Thoughts, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I just ran a floater loop, and the eye is way east of the forecast points. Even allowing for the inevitable wobbles, Irene seems to be further east than I would expect right now. Where are you getting way east of the forecast points? All I see is a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Phil882, what's your latest forecast Re: landfall location/intensity? And what do you think of these murmurs about a rightward nudge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting. One thing I've learned with Irene is not to overreact to 1) single model runs and 2) wobbles on IR/radar loops. So I'm hesitant to read too much into it. Thoughts, anyone? Might as well sit and wait for the Euro at this point. It won't make much of a difference to get into Morehead City an hour later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting. One thing I've learned with Irene is not to overreact to 1) single model runs and 2) wobbles on IR/radar loops. So I'm hesitant to read too much into it. Thoughts, anyone? If I had a dollar for every time somebody tried to determine wobbles or movements with IR I would be a rich man. If you look at the radar on wu it is still moving due north. eye is now just starting to clear out on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Good luck, Josh and safe travels to both of you, wherever you end up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Might as well sit and wait for the Euro at this point. It won't make much of a difference to get into Morehead City an hour later. Yeah, for sure. It'll come out while I'm just getting my luggage. Also, Scott747 says recon is headed in If I had a dollar for every time somebody tried to determine wobbles or movements with IR I would be a rich man. If you look at the radar on wu it is still moving due north. eye is now just starting to clear out on IR. Good point, dude! Thanks for your take on the radar. Good luck, Josh and safe travels to both of you, wherever you end up! Aw, thanks, dude! This will be my first Carolina 'cane! You must be excited something's coming right to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Irene is looking good. Helluva tough call as you're basically guaranteed landfall farther north with slightly less assurance farther south. I think you're making the right choice though by heading to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Interesting. One thing I've learned with Irene is not to overreact to 1) single model runs and 2) wobbles on IR/radar loops. So I'm hesitant to read too much into it. Thoughts, anyone? I think going to NC, especially Morehead City, is risky. The NHC has her going to 77.8W, probably a bit farther between points. Last 5 advisory positions: 11am 76.8W 2pm 77.2W 5pm 77.3W 8pm 77.4W 11pm 77.3W If you want your best shot at a big cane then come to NC and go to Morehead. If you don't want to fly across the country and risk striking out, I'd probably either hit the northern outer banks or go to Long Island. I'd definitely check the 0z Euro before I did either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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