iCyclone Chase: IRENE

[HurricaneJosh]

Hopefully they do...this might be a Gloria-type scenario where it brushes a few spots before it makes final landfall somewhere. The trend west is noticeable though...just not sure it holds in the end.

Bingo-- it's the million-dollar question.

[HurricaneJosh]

I have to say... The 5 am EDT forecast from the NHC is a Long Islander's dream.

It'a perfect, Gloria-like track up along-- but just off-- the E Seaboard until a clean landfall on W Long Island. Who knows of this will happen, but I wanted to just preserve this forecast here-- because this was what I fantasized about as a fifteen-year-old living on the Island.

It makes me a touch nostalgic to feel a slight tingle over it.

[toad strangler]

I have to say... The 5 am EDT forecast from the NHC is a Long Islander's dream.

It'a perfect, Gloria-like track up along-- but just off-- the E Seaboard until a clean landfall on W Long Island. Who knows of this will happen, but I wanted to just preserve this forecast here-- because this was what I fantasized about as a fifteen-year-old living on the Island.

It makes me a touch nostalgic to feel a slight tingle over it.

Growing up on the Jersey shore this was always my fantasy as well. Now?

[The Dude]

Ugh, here's the deal: for me, there is a world of difference between Morehead City and OBX. One would be awesome, one would suck. It's not a huge distance in terms of miles, but the difference is enormous in terms of what can be experienced. I hate that it's so close.

I've spent quite a bit of time in the Morehead City/Beaufort/Emerald Isle area. Couple of observations for you.

To state the obvious, if you go to Morehead, you will be extremely limited in your ability to make adjustments for an east shift. Keep in mind that Beaufort is actually on an island, with only 2 roads back to the mainland, and there's a good chance both of them will be impassable for a period after the storm passes.

The heart of Morehead City is very charming, but old. There are a few new mid-rise residential buildings, but most of the buildings are generally older 1 or 2 story structures. There will not be any multi-story parking garages. That said, it's protected somewhat from the surge by Emerald Isle.

If you get there early enough, the Channel Marker right over the bridge in Atlantic City serves some excellent seafood.

Good luck wherever you end up.

[phil882]

12z Guidence... not that the models are very tightly clusters for a NJ landfall after a direct hit on the Outer Banks. Only the LBAR and a couple of members from the BAM suite are suggesting an MA scrape... its looking increasingly likely you will focus on LI or NC as chase subjects.

[winterymix]

I think irene is going to cross Long Island as a 970 mb Cat One.

She will brush Hattaras and miss NJ according to the 12 GFS.

[HurricaneJosh]

I've spent quite a bit of time in the Morehead City/Beaufort/Emerald Isle area. Couple of observations for you.

To state the obvious, if you go to Morehead, you will be extremely limited in your ability to make adjustments for an east shift. Keep in mind that Beaufort is actually on an island, with only 2 roads back to the mainland, and there's a good chance both of them will be impassable for a period after the storm passes.

The heart of Morehead City is very charming, but old. There are a few new mid-rise residential buildings, but most of the buildings are generally older 1 or 2 story structures. There will not be any multi-story parking garages. That said, it's protected somewhat from the surge by Emerald Isle.

If you get there early enough, the Channel Marker right over the bridge in Atlantic City serves some excellent seafood.

Good luck wherever you end up.

Hey, Scott-- thanks for the info-- it's really helpful!

Yeah, the reason I've been hesitant about Morehead City (even though it seems close to the expected landfall point) is that it's about as far E as you can go-- and that is kind of what I'm expecting. That's why it's a tough decision about whether to go there or not, as the NHC has the center passing very close to there. At this time, I'm inclined to do it-- but I don't have to decide tonight until I've landed in NYC anyway. But it's looking more and more likely.

The woman at the hotel insists the hotel won't flood and they won't be evacuating because "We're not on the beach-- we're in the city." Cool.

12z Guidence... not that the models are very tightly clusters for a NJ landfall after a direct hit on the Outer Banks. Only the LBAR and a couple of members from the BAM suite are suggesting an MA scrape... its looking increasingly likely you will focus on LI or NC as chase subjects.

Yeah, I'm tending toward NC right now-- will decide when I land in NYC late tonight.

[Ed Lizard]

GFS implying typical Northern sloppicane with most of the rain North and West of the track. Still worth doing, especially if a family visit can be added in.

[Scott747]

GFS implying typical Northern sloppicane with most of the rain North and West of the track. Still worth doing, especially if a family visit can be added in.

Did you even read this thread?

[HurricaneJosh]

So... The latest from me: I'm landing in NYC a little after 12 midnight, at which time, my best friend from high school-- who's accompanying me on this chase-- is picking me up at the airport.

If NC seems like a go, we'll drive from there to NC overnight, when there's no traffic. That's a solid 12 hr from now and I'm assuming the setup will be much clearer then.

[Ed Lizard]

Did you even read this thread?

You betcha.

[Ed Lizard]

So... The latest from me: I'm landing in NYC a little after 12 midnight, at which time, my best friend from high school-- who's accompanying me on this chase-- is picking me up at the airport.

If NC seems like a go, we'll drive from there to NC overnight, when there's no traffic. That's a solid 12 hr from now and I'm assuming the setup will be much clearer then.

Back on topic, how are you getting out. If it tracks far enough West, I'd think saltwater flooding of LGA and JFK might have the airports closed for a time even after the water drains back off. Plus all the people that didn't fly while the airports are down.

[downeastnc]

So... The latest from me: I'm landing in NYC a little after 12 midnight, at which time, my best friend from high school-- who's accompanying me on this chase-- is picking me up at the airport.

If NC seems like a go, we'll drive from there to NC overnight, when there's no traffic. That's a solid 12 hr from now and I'm assuming the setup will be much clearer then.

NYC to MHX is a solid 8-10 hr drive that will give ya most of Friday to rest up, good luck with the traffic if ya go I-95 lol.

[downeastnc]

Back on topic, how are you getting out. If it tracks far enough West, I'd think saltwater flooding of LGA and JFK might have the airports closed for a time even after the water drains back off. Plus all the people that didn't fly while the airports are down.

If he does MHX and they get a direct hit he wont be going anywhere really for a day or so as the roads out of town get covered by surge and or flooded from 15" of rain, and it takes awhile to drain it off. He most likely can head west after a day or so to RDU.

[HurricaneJosh]

Back on topic, how are you getting out. If it tracks far enough West, I'd think saltwater flooding of LGA and JFK might have the airports closed for a time even after the water drains back off. Plus all the people that didn't fly while the airports are down.

Getting out midweek-- spending time with my mother for a few days afterward-- so it won't be an issue.

NYC to MHX is a solid 8-10 hr drive that will give ya most of Friday to rest up, good luck with the traffic if ya go I-95 lol.

Traffic won't be an issue between 1 and 5 am, when we're passing all the main I95 cities, so we're cool.

[wxmx]

I'm 75% certain that somewhere in NC will feel the brunt of the storm, harder than anywhere else in the 2nd LF (if there's one)... OBX might be it, but MHX looks like the best place now. 12z Euro confirms this.

[Dunkman]

US-64 does not go to Morehead, US-70 does.

[BxEngine]

My PMs arent working josh, but if you end up staying up here and not nc, if you need anything just let me know. Anything short of a firetruck. Lol

[CUmet]

I'm 75% certain that somewhere in NC will feel the brunt of the storm, harder than anywhere else in the 2nd LF (if there's one)... OBX might be it, but MHX looks like the best place now. 12z Euro confirms this.

Completely agree. From a purely meteorological conditions standpoint, the NC option is better.

[The Dude]

I don't recall downtown Morehead City ever evacuating for a hurricane before, so I suspect your hotel owner is accurate.

To get to NC from NY, I'd stick with I-95 to US-64 in NC. US-13 is often quicker, but I suspect it will be congested with folks evacuating the MD/VA beaches.

[Isopycnic]

I don't recall downtown Morehead City ever evacuating for a hurricane before, so I suspect your hotel owner is accurate.

To get to NC from NY, I'd stick with I-95 to US-64 in NC. US-13 is often quicker, but I suspect it will be congested with folks evacuating the MD/VA beaches.

... or 95s to 264east to 795 to goldsboro then 70east to morehead. all 4 lanes and some sections are 70mph.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm 75% certain that somewhere in NC will feel the brunt of the storm, harder than anywhere else in the 2nd LF (if there's one)... OBX might be it, but MHX looks like the best place now. 12z Euro confirms this.

Awesome. Very cool. I hope you're right. When I land in NYC tonight, if that still looks to be the case, we're hitting the I95 right away-- will drive down overnight.

My PMs arent working josh, but if you end up staying up here and not nc, if you need anything just let me know. Anything short of a firetruck. Lol

Thanks, Chris-- I really appreciate that.

Completely agree. From a purely meteorological conditions standpoint, the NC option is better.

Awesome-- I of course value your opinion highly.

I don't recall downtown Morehead City ever evacuating for a hurricane before, so I suspect your hotel owner is accurate.

To get to NC from NY, I'd stick with I-95 to US-64 in NC. US-13 is often quicker, but I suspect it will be congested with folks evacuating the MD/VA beaches.

Thanks, Scott! Since I don't know the area that well, this really helps. We will take that route. Since we'll be driving overnight, I'm thinking (hoping) the traffic won't be too big a deal.

[Jebman]

Awesome - Just the thought of Josh driving south past Woodbridge on I-95. You will be passing thru Jebwalkland

[stormitecture]

Josh...probably a bit more than 8 hours from NYC to MHX. The backroad network once of 95 is bad. Also...95 in VA just south of DC and be held up at almost any part of the day. You might consider US 113 via the Delmarva. I highly doubt the police will be watching for speeding, so you could probably push the limit some (10 over maybe if traffic is clear and you are OK with that) and if you decide to stop earlier you are already basically on the coastal areas.

Ellinwood and I will be headed to MHX as well, unless an adjustment is required. It's gonna be a tough decision to stay or move north with the storm (if the surge/flooding allows).

[The Dude]

US-64 does not go to Morehead, US-70 does.

US-70 is out of the way.

I'd likely take i-95 to US-64 to US-13 (south) to US-264 (east) (in Greenville) to US-17 (south) (in Washington) to US-70 (east) (in New Bern)

[WeatherNC]

US-70 is out of the way.

I'd likely take i-95 to US-64 to US-13 (south) to US-264 (east) (in Greenville) to US-17 (south) (in Washington) to US-70 (east) (in New Bern)

64 is out the question, not only is it too far north for the eastern cut, but an inferior road compared to 264/795/117... Route is, and all the locals are agreeing, 95 - to exit 119B in NC (264/795 E), then would drop S to Goldsboro, and hit 70 east towards MHX, bisecting 24 for the final short cut. Plan on about a 2hr trip once you get off 95 and head east

[stormitecture]

US-70 is out of the way.

I'd likely take i-95 to US-64 to US-13 (south) to US-264 (east) (in Greenville) to US-17 (south) (in Washington) to US-70 (east) (in New Bern)

DeLorme has routed I-95s --> I-795s --> US 70 (via Goldboro). About the same distance and time though. Difference is ~ 2 miles and 5 minutes. However, I did that route on the way down during Isabel and it took a lot longer (with a huge delay in and around New Bern). I remember it taking almost 9 hours from Gaithersburg (vs. the 7 hours it suggests). Of course both routes might be trouble if contra flow evacuation traffic is in place.

[WeatherNC]

Of course both routes might be trouble if contra flow evacuation traffic is in place.

Which they are not, have not seen any indications of reverse flow here in the east

[stormitecture]

Which they are not, have not seen any indications of reverse flow here in the east

Awesome...good to know.

I wonder if the Langdon House B&B will be open again. During Isabel they were the only place I could get to sleep. It was awesome...so nice having hot soup ready for ya when you return. It is kinda expensive though (compared to a simple hotel). But I could see you taking advantage of a B&B Josh.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, what's up, guys? I'm on the plane headed to JFK-- will land at 12:45 am, where my bud from high school is picking me up. We're going to hit the road immediately and try to get past the I95 metro cluster before daybreak. Our desire is to get to MHX by 9 am or so.

Thanks to Scott, Dunkman, WeatherWarrior, and WeatherNC for the navigation tips-- they are greatly appreciated!