Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 STFU did he really post that? Yeah on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 gfs ensembles look sweet but we all know they will change!! http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html Looks like most tracks are west of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah at the end of the day it's just exciting to see the first (potential) major hurricane threat to east coast since Isabel. If it actually made landfall as a major, it would be the first since 1996 (Fran) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Par for the course from JB. Now if it's OTS I'll have something to laugh about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah on Twitter That Guy is worse than me when it comes to posting.. and I'm bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm worried about thicknesses ... especially with the inside runner, we could mix with sleet pretty early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm worried about thicknesses ... especially with the inside runner, we could mix with sleet pretty early Is Jerry in town? We'll know it'll hit if he's away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm worried about thicknesses ... especially with the inside runner, we could mix with sleet pretty early Yeah. Hopefully my latitude FTW for a nice front end dump before the winds and rain kill us all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 0 Euro verbatim is nothing special for us. I think if you want winds you want this thing to rocket north with some kind of mega-phase to our southwest. If it's crawling ashore in the Carolinas it's going to weaken very fast and there's not really much baroclinic enhancement (like a Hazel) as the thing moves north. Ryan, You're doing a great job analyzing this event......You should send a tape into The Weather Channel. None of us should be expecting much around here, but after back to back hurricane seasons that were absolute duds it's fun to track something that could become substantial....I just wish it would strike a more populated area instead of SE NC that would provide more riveting images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm worried about thicknesses ... especially with the inside runner, we could mix with sleet pretty early Solid 6"+ front end dump though before the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If it actually made landfall as a major, it would be the first since 1996 (Fran) What about Jeanne? http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/JEANNE/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/hurricane-irene-to-be-a-big-threat-to-the-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Great write-up from Allen who does not hype at all http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/hurricane-irene-to-be-a-big-threat-to-the-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What about Jeanne? http://weather.unisy...EANNE/track.gif I wasn't counting Florida hits. Sorry I didn't specify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I wasn't counting Florida hits. Sorry I didn't specify. What was Isabel? High two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Excellent writeup. So a request from the mets, will, scooter, ryan, phil, Tip, osumet, and anyone I missed, my stepfather just had his spleen and part of his pancreas taken out last week and was rushed to the hospital last night with a high fever, and undergoing another procedure right now. This is an incredibly difficult forecast, my mom is in Pawley's Is SC roughly 25 miles sw of Myrtle Beach, obviously if this hits I need to drive the truck down and remove any valuables and get them out, and of course that is a BIG if in regards to Irene making landfall on the mid-upper sc coast. Problem is I need to leave a minimum of 24 hrs before evacuation orders are given, southbound side roads leading into Myrtle Beach Georgetown area from I95 are reversed under evacuation orders making it almost if not impossible to get to the beach. I know this is way up in the air, but any kind of pm to me over the next two days with your thoughts regarding a landfall in the area from HH up through Myrtle would truly be appreciated, thanks so much. Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Excellent writeup. So a request from the mets, will, scooter, ryan, phil osumet, and anyone I missed, my stepfather just had his spleen and part of his pancreas taken out last week and was rushed to the hospital last night with a high fever, and undergoing another procedure right now. This is an incredibly difficult forecast, my mom is in Pawley's Is SC roughly 25 miles sw of Myrtle Beach, obviously if this hits I need to drive the truck down and remove any valuables and get them out, and of course that is a BIG if in regards to Irene making landfall on the mid-upper sc coast. Problem is I need to leave a minimum of 24 hrs before evacuation orders are given, southbound side roads leading into Myrtle Beach Georgetown area from I95 are reversed under evacuation orders making it almost if not impossible to get to the beach. I know this is way up in the air, but any kind of pm to me over the next two days with your thoughts regarding a landfall in the area from HH up through Myrtle would truly be appreciated, thanks so much. Joe I think if you read the main thread on this storm in weather forecasting and discussion you will get a better sense of where this will hit IMO Those posters are really good over there, like here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 gfs ensembles look sweet but we all know they will change!! http://www.wundergro...9_ensmodel.html What one should take away from that is: 1) Very good clustering for tropical system passing through D4 into 6 2) Very good cllustering for any system in general 3) The operational version is on the eastern side of the envelope of solutions, leaving the correction vector pointed west. ...I really don't have a problem with this coming on board up here at this point... I'm closer to on the fence with that than a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think if you read the main thread on this storm in weather forecasting and discussion you will get a better sense of where this will hit IMO Those posters are really good over there, like here Thanks, but reading through the Tropics thread can be tiring, and I think some of the best mets on american are right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What one should take away from that is: 1) Very good clustering for tropical system passing through D4 into 6 2) Very good cllustering for any system in general 3) The operational version is on the eastern side of the envelope of solutions, leaving the correction vector pointed west. ...I really don't have a problem with this coming on board up here at this point... I'm closer to on the fence with that than a miss. I thought the same thing with the clustering.. tip, Where do we want the second landfall for the best effects? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What one should take away from that is: 1) Very good clustering for tropical system passing through D4 into 6 2) Very good cllustering for any system in general 3) The operational version is on the eastern side of the envelope of solutions, leaving the correction vector pointed west. ...I really don't have a problem with this coming on board up here at this point... I'm closer to on the fence with that than a miss. For a 5+ day system, GFS ensemble consistency is striking. Getting something like .8 percentile is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Excellent writeup. So a request from the mets, will, scooter, ryan, phil, Tip, osumet, and anyone I missed, my stepfather just had his spleen and part of his pancreas taken out last week and was rushed to the hospital last night with a high fever, and undergoing another procedure right now. This is an incredibly difficult forecast, my mom is in Pawley's Is SC roughly 25 miles sw of Myrtle Beach, obviously if this hits I need to drive the truck down and remove any valuables and get them out, and of course that is a BIG if in regards to Irene making landfall on the mid-upper sc coast. Problem is I need to leave a minimum of 24 hrs before evacuation orders are given, southbound side roads leading into Myrtle Beach Georgetown area from I95 are reversed under evacuation orders making it almost if not impossible to get to the beach. I know this is way up in the air, but any kind of pm to me over the next two days with your thoughts regarding a landfall in the area from HH up through Myrtle would truly be appreciated, thanks so much. Joe Very difficult to advise you given 24s worth of the time constraining circumstance, and I understand the price-tag and hardship wtih committing to a particular course of action. Are you alone, or do you have a spouse and/or someone who can be left behind to tend to the battening of the hatches locally?? You may want to do a split effort here, simply because in 24 hours I do not believe the forecasting certitude will have improved that much. ...Maybe, I do find the clustering of the GFS ensembles to be pretty fantastic quite frankly, suggesting the bigger impact may indeed turn out to be locally here in SNE. If you had even 48 hours that would make a big difference here. My personal belief is that Myrtle Beach will end up a bit W of the center and that is usually more rain than wind for TCs transitioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Very difficult to advise you given 24s worth of the time constraining circumstance, and I understand the price-tag and hardship wtih committing to a particular course of action. Are you alone, or do you have a spouse and/or someone who can be left behind to tend to the battening of the hatches locally?? You may want to do a split effort here, simply because in 24 hours I do not believe the forecasting certitude will have improved that much. ...Maybe, I do find the clustering of the GFS ensembles to be pretty fantastic quite frankly, suggesting the bigger impact may indeed turn out to be locally here in SNE. If you had even 48 hours that would make a big difference here. My personal belief is that Myrtle Beach will end up a bit W of the center and that is usually more rain than wind for TCs transitioning. Tip my wife and kids will be here, and I have no worries about the storm locally, I need to leave here, driving in my truck from Ct 24 hours before they issue evacuation orders down there so I can actually make it in to the beach, thanks for responding:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I thought the same thing with the clustering.. tip, Where do we want the second landfall for the best effects? ah, yeah, I don't WANT that necessarily? Seriously. I'm a home owner up here and that ensemble track is very bad for me... Even at TS intensity, moving along at 30mph with sustained 55kt wind is going to do a lot of damage people. I mean ...I'm not brain dead: obviously as a Meteorologist I am just as captivated by big events. It's just that I am also sane, too. To answer your question... if you want "best effects" - I think you mean "AFFECT" because carry no illusions, you will be smacked in the face, punched in the gut, and ten visited by the Sisters Of Mercy from Shawshank Redemption - you want this mean to verify pretty much as is... I really stays just off shore and than slams into LI and cuts 20 M west of ORH...passing right about over Nashua. All of RI/eastern MA, if that is a category 2 cane, pretty much is rendered without an infrastructure until further notice. That's not saying anyting beyond the pale of what these ensembles are indicating. That's 950mb low territory cutting through eastern CT/central MA moving at 25-30mph. Not sure how else one would interpret that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Tip my wife and kids will be here, and I have no worries about the storm locally, I need to leave here, driving in my truck from Ct 24 hours before they issue evacuation orders down there so I can actually make it in to the beach, thanks for responding:) That's the problem though... it would be ridiculous to drive 24 hours for nothing, and there is no way to advise you with certitude over the next 24 hours - being the irony. Flying is not an option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 ah, yeah, I don't WANT that necessarily? Seriously. I'm a home owner up here and that ensemble track is very bad for me... Even at TS intensity, moving along at 30mph with sustained 55kt wind is going to do a lot of damage people. I mean ...I'm not brain dead: obviously as a Meteorologist I am just as captivated by big events. It's just that I am also sane, too. To answer your question... if you want "best effects" - I think you mean "AFFECT" because carry no illusions, you will be smacked in the face, punched in the guy, and visited by the Sisters Of Mercy from Shawshank Redemption - you want this mean to verify pretty much as is... I really stays just off shore and than slams into LI and cuts 20 M west of ORH...passing right about over Nashua. All of RI/eastern MA, if that is a category 2 cane, pretty much is rendered without an infrastructure until further notice. That's not saying anyting beyond the pale of what these ensembles are indicating. That 950mb low territory cutting through eastern CT/central MA moving at 25-30mph. Not sure how else one would interpret that. I want what you just described, am I sick? Do you really think NE could have 60 MPH sustained with that track? Even inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's the problem though... it would be ridiculous to drive 24 hours for nothing, and there is no way to advise you with certitude over the next 24 hours - being the irony. Flying is not an option? Its not I would get a weekend to help my mom out in regards to my stepfather being in the hospital, in any case a couple days out I imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NAM seems to show quite a bit of interaction with Hispanolia tugging her south. It will be interesting to see how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NAM seems to show quite a bit of interaction with Hispanolia tugging her south. It will be interesting to see how this plays out That's already definable as not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.